April 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro says no more sub50 highs after Friday... nothing but 50s to low 60s through day 10.  I'd like a couple warmer days mixed in, but I won't complain about consistent milder(normal) weather.

[East Dubzz]

Still waiting for that snowstorm.

[Geos]

Pretty seasonable forecast for the next 7 days here. Lowest temp is 30°.

 

Going to be some lake breezes, but the EURO is encouraging.

 

@ East Dubzz - I think any significant snow chances are now over with, especially with the way the models are trending. Probably see some flurries and maybe even some snow showers left this month, but that's probably it.

[East Dubzz]

Pretty seasonable forecast for the next 7 days here. Lowest temp is 30°.

 

Going to be some lake breezes, but the EURO is encouraging.

 

@ East Dubzz - I think any significant snow chances are now over with, especially with the way the models are trending. Probably see some flurries and maybe even some snow showers left this month, but that's probably it.

Yup, I totally agree, and I'm totally fine with that. Bring on spring.

[DominicR]

System day 5-6 looks pretty deep. Might be able to pull in enough cold air for some snow across Lakes with this.

[tim the weatherman]

Pretty seasonable forecast for the next 7 days here. Lowest temp is 30°.

 

Going to be some lake breezes, but the EURO is encouraging.

 

@ East Dubzz - I think any significant snow chances are now over with, especially with the way the models are trending. Probably see some flurries and maybe even some snow showers left this month, but that's probably it.

i do agree geos that within the next week or to we will be out of this back and fourth pattern and once that polar vortex is gone that we will have a zonal flow pattern.

[Tom]

CFSv2 has now flipped warm from mid April and beyond in recent runs.  It brings some really torchy weather into the region and Spring will finally make an appearance it seems.  I'm going to bake out here in AZ with low 90's next week and some of that warmth will start building in from the west sometime around the 16/18th and take hold. 

 

 

[DominicR]

I think will have to watch out for next Tuesday. Looks pretty warm and meager on the back-side of this system but might be able to pull in enough cold air ecp if it closes off for some snow across lower Lakes. We have had snow in April before. Not all that to uncommon.

[gosaints]

Not seeing any winter threats in the medium to long range.  think we may have finally turned the corner.  Candaian looks nice in the long range.

[tim the weatherman]

Not seeing any winter threats in the medium to long range.  think we may have finally turned the corner.  Candaian looks nice in the long range.

that is good news gosaints that our snowstorms is done for the season that my forecast is showing nothing but 50 60 and 70's (but bring on the t shirt and shorts weather).

[Tony]

Well it looks like winter has finally lost its grip and spring should start in earnest next week which I am sure we are all ready for. It was really an entertaining winter with all the model craziness, extremely cold temps and plenty of broken snowfall records across the nation.

 

Since I am only a winter weather enthusiast it is time for me to close the books on this winter. I will pop in from time to time but that will be on rare occasions. I learned a lot on this forum as this is really a great group and I hope to see all of you guys next winter. Enjoy your spring and summer everyone and hopefully Nebraska and the rest of the drought areas will get in on some much needed rain.

 

Until next fall then!

[tim the weatherman]

just looking at the oscillation forecast that +/-pna +nao +/-+epo and with a +ao means that we will have warmer weather coming up within the next week.

[Tom]

Couldn't of said it any better Tony.  The Winter of 2013/14 here in Chicago will be remembered for the ages as well as many places in our region.  Now I could finally say I lived through an epic winter!  Glad to see this forum increase its members during this season and hopefully next winter will bring more aboard.  Looking forward to seeing Spring/Summer take hold in Chi-city so we can hit the beaches, boats, bon fires and best of all, some summer time T-Storms.

[tim the weatherman]

Couldn't of said it any better Tony.  The Winter of 2013/14 here in Chicago will be remembered for the ages as well as many places in our region.  Now I could finally say I lived through an epic winter!  Glad to see this forum increase its members during this season and hopefully next winter will bring more aboard.  Looking forward to seeing Spring/Summer take hold in Chi-city so we can hit the beaches, boats, bon fires and best of all, some summer time T-Storms.

i am on aboard on this tom that we had a long winter with many records nearly broken and broken with the polar vortex stronger than ever that with the blocking over alaska that caused the jet stream to come crashing into the conus with brutally artic air and the clipper train that keeps on coming and with a couple of snow storms in early jan and in feb.

[FiNsTa]

I think will have to watch out for next Tuesday. Looks pretty warm and meager on the back-side of this system but might be able to pull in enough cold air ecp if it closes off for some snow across lower Lakes. We have had snow in April before. Not all that to uncommon.

Get over it, winter's over.

[james1976]

Yup, i agree. I think we have turned the corner. I would have loved to see Waterloo get 2 more inches to break it's snowfall record but it aint looking good. I am looking forward to warm weather and big thunderstorms!

[tim the weatherman]

Get over it, winter's over.

i agree that our snows has come to an end and once the remminat piece of the polar vortex is gone that means our snows will be shut off.

[tim the weatherman]

but bare in mind that we still has not have our last hard freeze that our big snows are over and after our last hard freeze that we will have warmer temps.

[tim the weatherman]

from weather.comhttp://image.weather.com/images/maps/winter/us_snowcover_large_usen_600x405.jpg

[Hawkeye]

Feels great to look at the models today.  The latest Euro has upper 40s tomorrow, with light wind so it will be ok, but then upper 50s to upper 60s through day 9.  That's more like it.  I can finally get my dormant geraniums potted up and growing outside and get some other potted plants outside to make room for new seedlings.  The grass should be also growing a bit by the end of the period.

[Geos]

Reached 45° earlier today. Been a gloomy day, but have to expect those in early April. 

 

Grass should definitely be greening up next week with the predicted temperatures! I would say winter ended early, the last full week of March.

[tim the weatherman]

was reading an interested article on the weather centre and we might be looking at a potenally major storm system that might be over the lower great lakes and ohio valley and this big storm could be negative tilted storm so that is telling that we might be looking at a major tornado outbreak and potentiality volient tornado outbreak (april 10 thru the 14th) (also this might have two with it).

[MKEstorm]

was reading an interested article on the weather centre and we might be looking at a potenally major storm system that might be over the lower great lakes and ohio valley and this big storm could be negative tilted storm so that is telling that we might be looking at a major tornado outbreak and potentiality volient tornado outbreak.

 

When?

[tim the weatherman]

When?

april 10 thru the 14th.

[james1976]

was reading an interested article on the weather centre and we might be looking at a potenally major storm system that might be over the lower great lakes and ohio valley and this big storm could be negative tilted storm so that is telling that we might be looking at a major tornado outbreak and potentiality volient tornado outbreak (april 10 thru the 14th).

is this what you are talking about?

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[East Dubzz]

Get to play my first baseball game of the year today! They moved the starting time back to noon because of the cold temps this morning, but looks like it's shaping up to be a pretty nice day (at least according to this years standards).

[Geos]

is this what you are talking about?

 

That looks interesting. Warm moist air, a flow out of the desert SW, some cooler air to the north. Little far out to say for sure, but it might be worth watching. 

 

Little chilly this morning at 29°, but already up to 41°.

[tim the weatherman]

is this what you are talking about?

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

i was not

[james1976]

yeah its a beautiful day. bright and sunny, light wind. low 40s right now.

[Geos]

Sunny and about 47° here with full sun. Feels warmer though.

[james1976]

definitely something to keep an eye on
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_189_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[james1976]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[james1976]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_204_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[NEJeremy]

anybody have snowfall maps for the Canadian model from 12Z today? looks like it showed a huge storm towards the end of the 10 day period that has great severe weather possibilities and also showed a hefty snowstorm for Nebraska on the backside.

[Jaycee]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_204_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

My goodness. Iowa gets crushed. That'd be severe wx from Eastern Nebraska and on East towards Chicago and Milwaukee. Bring it on. We live for this out here. I'd be ecstatic to have a day within this next week to go chasing, didn't really have so much luck last year. It almost seems we're due for a huge year of storms out here.

 

NEJeremy I saw that as well. Severe wx then possibly snow a few days later if I'm reading it correctly. That'd be insane. Hopefully Tom can post the maps for us.

[tim the weatherman]

My goodness. Iowa gets crushed. That'd be severe wx from Eastern Nebraska and on East towards Chicago and Milwaukee. Bring it on. We live for this out here. I'd be ecstatic to have a day within this next week to go chasing, didn't really have so much luck last year. It almost seems we're due for a huge year of storms out here.

 

NEJeremy I saw that as well. Severe wx then possibly snow a few days later if I'm reading it correctly. That'd be insane. Hopefully Tom can post the maps for us.

severe weather is in the cards for this one as the primary source with this storm.

[Geos]

There's actually very little snow with that storm system above^. Most of the precipitation comes is before the 0°C 850mb line crosses into the rain shield. 

 

Should be a good soaker though.

 

[Geos]

The back half of the 12z GGEM run.

 

[Tom]

Here is the 12z GGEM snowfall map...

 

Back to back runs on the GFS are showing a NW Flow and a much chillier look in the region.  CFSv2 has now flipped back to a colder regime Week 1-2 and beyond.  Canada really fills up with some cold air during this period.  Meanwhile, the west coast ridge takes hold which has been the predominant weather pattern since the Fall.

 

EURO/GFS showing a good setup for severe weather next Sunday.

[james1976]

yeah i know the models arent showing much for snow. i was mainly talking about the storm in general and what appears to be a severe threat. Bring on the tstorms!