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April 2014 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Bufkit for MKE

 

140414/0300Z 111 02024KT 30.1F SNOW 10:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.341 10:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0

140414/0600Z 114 03020KT 31.0F SNOW 11:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.243 10:1| 6.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58 100| 0| 0

140414/0900Z 117 02022KT 29.9F SNOW 12:1| 5.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.423 11:1| 11.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.01 100| 0| 0

140414/1200Z 120 01027KT 28.1F SNOW 13:1| 6.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.480 12:1| 17.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.49 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140414/1500Z 123 01026KT 29.0F SNOW 6:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.195 11:1| 18.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.68 100| 0| 0

140414/1800Z 126 35022KT 31.0F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 11:1| 18.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.70 100| 0| 0

140414/2100Z 129 32011KT 32.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 11:1| 18.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.70 0| 0| 0

140415/0000Z 132 29008KT 32.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 11:1| 18.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.70 0| 0| 0

 

Starts snowing at 3z

 

Geos wrong again.

 

Most of the snow falls from 3z to 12z

 

Hey I'm not in Milwaukee. Maybe Racine is snow by 4am at the earliest.

 

At 3z down here it is still too warm both at ground level and at 5000 feet. Anyways with warmer ground and the predicted 2" of rain before changeover the snow wouldn't stick right away anyway.

 

DGZ is poor under the best precipitation rates with this system.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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i was looking at a website that the soil temps that most of the nation are above freezing so if we get snow that it won't stay too long.

 

I was wondering that myself.

 

 

Will very likely be in the 50-55° range by Sunday.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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After seeing 80's today in the Plains, a rude awakening is heading their way next Tuesday where a 50 degree temp drop is in the works.  That should leave a mark.  These wild temp swings in the Spring may be what is on the table for the Plains, Lakes/Midwest not so much.

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Skilling is saying this will be a quick 2 day shot of cold air and then it rebounds back into the 50s by Wednesday. 

 

Best day of the year so far. High 62°.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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The models could show 12-18 for geos 24 hours before the event and he'll make something up about how it's not going to snow etc.

 

It gets pretty annoying.

 

I've seen some pretty wild busts before, but usually not within that time frame. That one system in late March was showing those extreme amounts in under 96 hours and I got 0.2"!

 

18z GFS is about the most I would expect.

---

 

 

First 9 days of April holds a departure of -1.06° here.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I've seen some pretty wild busts before, but usually not within that time frame. That one system in late March was showing those extreme amounts in under 96 hours and I got 0.2"!

i agree geos that models show it one day and the next day it is not because of tiny errors that i have learned by temps and wind.

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The models could show 12-18 for geos 24 hours before the event and he'll make something up about how it's not going to snow etc.

 

It gets pretty annoying.

Lol you were hitting the last storm as a huge snow maker and that went away and nobody ripped you...

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If the NAM went out a bit further it looks like the system center would pass towards the west of other models...

 

84 hours

 

 

It should be a dynamic storm no doubt.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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0z NAM pumps mid 70s out ahead of the front on Saturday PM and 60s that night. 

 

Some decent CAPE to work with this weekend.

 

 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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And then?...

 

It showed 6"+ of snow from north central IL to Manitoulin Island basically. A bit high towards the south given surface readings between 32-35°.

 

---

 

Very mild here over night. Above guidance, Low of 52°. Probably will be hitting 60° by 9am.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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It's nice to see the models coming together on a nice rain event this weekend.  The latest Euro has put a few inches of snow back in for eastern Iowa, but odds are we would only get a bit of short-lived white on the grass.

 

It's also nice to see the Euro showing another warm pattern developing late in the period.  I hope that sticks.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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