April 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Money]

12Z Euro is a really snowy run. My fear is that this will be gone in a few days. Cant see us all getting 6-10+. GFS shows nothing. I have witnessed April snowstorms before, but I'm still skeptical of this. 

 

12z GFS had 8+ for a lot of areas difference between the 18z and 12z is blocking up north. We want a strong high to keep this south and colder. Weaker high= warmer temps. This is where we actually want blocking. 

[gosaints]

The EURO thicknesses are very questionable thru 180 during the heavy precip in nebraska.  

[Tom]

12z Euro has yet another nearly identical type of system ejecting out of the Rockies the following Saturday with another blocking high to the north.  There may be more snow on the ground in the Plains/Midwest for the 1st week of April than the last couple weeks of March.  Spring snows to make that green grass grow!

 

 

 

[th_snow]

12z Euro has yet another nearly identical type of system ejecting out of the Rockies the following Saturday with another blocking high to the north.  There may be more snow on the ground in the Plains/Midwest for the 1st week of April than the last couple weeks of March.  Spring snows to make that green grass grow!

Those are some crazy snow depths up here for April

[Tom]

True, the model doesn't do a good job with sublimation and/or compacting of the snow.  You need factor that in on your own when you look at this map. 

[East Dubzz]

I would love to get excited about that Euro runs, but it's 8" between two storms and that won't last long. I need a big storm!

[Money]

It's 8 inches between one storm.

[gosaints]

Yep sure is money on a weatherbell map with shaky thicknesses

[Geos]

Half of that accumulation would be impressive for April.

[gosaints]

Half of that accumulation would be impressive for April.

I fully agree with that GEOS especially as far east as you guys.. not unheard here for sure. Hell I had 12 inches may second last year where I work in saint Charles mn

[Geos]

I fully agree with that GEOS especially as far east as you guys.. not unheard here for sure. Hell I had 12 inches may second last year where I work in saint Charles mn

 

 

What time of day did that fall!?

[clintbeed1993]

We really deserve something in Nebraska.  We have yet to see a single snowstorm.  I would be happy with anything at this point.  It's getting extremely dry out here.

[gosaints]

Watched it all day long in amazement. Started early morning though. 40 miles east only had an inch or two

[CentralNebWeather]

I am with you clintbeed1993. Any moisture we got last week with small storms was lost today with this unbelievable south wind that is still howling. I would even take rain, we are that desperate around here.

[Jaycee]

I wouldve taken rain in January. I heard its a straight dustbowl up there today. Yuck. People in the upper midwest dont understand how good theyve had it!

[Geos]

That's pretty dry in your area; Nebraska posters.

Not good.

 

 

Thing of it is, it's extending eastwards too.

 

[jlp]

MKX was saying we need the moisture or drought conditions would be around the corner. Also a local news station was saying our water value is actually down 2" from a normal winter. I'm assuming due to the dry nature of the snow we had all season.

[gabel23]

That's pretty dry in your area; Nebraska posters.

Not good.

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/hprcc/90dPNormHPRCC.png

 

Thing of it is, it's extending eastwards too.

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/mrcc/90dPNormMRCC.png

We thought summer of 2012 was bad; if we have a dry spring that will look like a cold spell. In all my years of following weather, which is a good 25 years, I have never seen it this dry out there. I can't believe all the dry wind storms we have seen this year. Today was the worse as farmers have been out in the fields in the past week stirring up the dirt. Blowing dust was the norm, so bad in spots visibility was zero in certain locations. Believe me these pics don't do justice with how bad it was out there today, wild fires are another major concern.

[Geos]

MKX was saying we need the moisture or drought conditions would be around the corner. Also a local news station was saying our water value is actually down 2" from a normal winter. I'm assuming due to the dry nature of the snow we had all season.

 

Yeah that's a big part of it. Dry snow, little rain for the last 3 months.

 

Welcome! Sounds like you are from southeast WI?...

[gabel23]

One more dust bowl pic....

[Money]

0z GFS coming in stronger/colder than 12z/18z GFS thus far.

[Money]

0z GFS 8-12 from LSE ENE to about Green Bay and north.

 

6-8 in N. NEB not so much of anything in E/NE/SE NEB

[clintbeed1993]

0z GFS 8-12 from LSE ENE to about Green Bay and north.

 

6-8 in N. NEB not so much of anything in E/NE/SE NEB

 

Story of the winter.  Never seen it this dry out here.  Even my dad said he doesn't remember a year this dry and snowless.

[Tom]

00z GFS showing daytime highs in the 20's from I-80 on north April 10th...if that happens (which is possible given the pattern), I think some ppl on this forum will go nuts.  I'm not saying it will happen, however, I wouldn't be shocked if it did.  The endless winter of 2013/14 continues to roll on by.

[Money]

Yup. No big warm ups at all on the 0z GFS.

 

GGEM should be out soon.

[Tom]

One of the coldest runs yet for April showing up on the CFSv2...unbelievable.  Geeze, is the Easter bunny going to have burrow through the snow on the ground in the Midwest/Great Lakes this year???  I feel sorry for those who want Spring and play sports.  My brother-in-law owns an indoor soccer venue and his business will still be booming this Spring (he's definitely excited about that).

[Tom]

Those warm waters in the NE Pacific have been the driving force this entire winter season and I don't see it changing this Spring.  Expect and abnormally cold/cool Spring ahead.  If an El Nino starts forming in June/July, that may change up the pattern in N.A but until then, this below normal regime will continue...sadly.

[Money]

No idea about precip, but GGEM looks suppressed like the 12z run. 

 

HR 156: 1000 SW KS

HR 168: 998 C/N KS

HR 180: 1002 W MO

HR 192: 1004 E STL 

[Tom]

CFSv2 temp forecast leading up to Easter weekend....won't post the snow map but it has it snowing in the Plains/Midwest!  Use this info as a guide, not a forecast.

[Tom]

OMG, 00z GGEM is an absolute "GEM" for Nebraska.  This would put a ton of smiles for snow lovers on this forum!  Build that glacier in April Mother Nature!  Maybe that brown grass in NE can receive those much needed "nitrogen" atoms Midwestbuilit mentioned regarding April snows.

 

Edit: I just posted the run farther out

[Money]

GGEM looks great for Chicago area. Probably 8-10 + from looking at precip maps

[Tom]

I think a lot of ppl praying for a pattern change will be in denial when April rolls on in...LRC/MJO/Teleconnections/Warm NE Pacific...the big 4 that will control the weather pattern in April.

[Money]

This is like the 3rd straight day models showing a big winter storm somewhere in the area. Thats the big thing right now.

[Tom]

Indeed, and all 3 global models are at least indicating it to be a juicy system this far out.  It's going to be a busy week tracking this storm and while I'm in AZ I'll still be paying attention to this amazing pattern shaping up for ORD.  One big one and the record is in jeopardy.  ORD only needs 1.5" to hit 2nd place, 9.1" for 1st.  The thing with this system is it has been showing sings of occluding as it heads east.  This is the same type of pattern that hit last year when systems blew up in the Plains, then fizzled as they head towards the Midwest/Lakes.

[Tom]

So Money, the freakish April cold showing up isn't making us sound like we were nuts, right???  This is going to be a season to remember for the ages.  I think once the storm train continues into April and there is enough cold air around, some parts of the Plains may hit their AVERAGE seasonal snowfall by the time April ends.  There is still a good 2-3 weeks of winter remaining on the table.

[Money]

http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=180&Day=&RunTime=00&Type=pnm

 

Check out the amazing consistency of the GGEM ensembles. Nearly every one has a storm in some fashion. Some huge hits, not many north. 

[Tom]

Hey Nebraska WX, remember that CFSv2 temp map I posted a week or 2 ago that had the Plains being hit hard Week 1 of April???  Starting to come into fruition buddy.  Hope you get some big snows out of this pattern and make up for the boring winter you guys have had out that way.  I know its not the 70's you were enjoying a little bit ago, but I think some April snows would help your regions agriculture. 

[Money]

Hopefully the euro starts on time tonight. Already starts late enough.

[Money]

Bufkit for GFS has temps in the low-mid 20's where the heaviest snowband sets up

 

140402/1200Z 156 08013KT 21.6F SNOW 13:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.159 13:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140402/1500Z 159 10013KT 25.6F SNOW 12:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.237 13:1| 5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40 100| 0| 0
140402/1800Z 162 11018KT 29.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.036 13:1| 5.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.43 0| 3| 97
140402/2100Z 165 06011KT 28.1F SNOW 7:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.224 10:1| 6.5|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.66 100| 0| 0
140403/0000Z 168 06011KT 27.8F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.036 10:1| 6.5|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.69 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140403/0300Z 171 04010KT 26.5F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.010 10:1| 6.5|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.70 0| 0|100
140403/0600Z 174 02010KT 25.2F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.011 10:1| 6.5|| 0.00|| 0.10|| 0.71 0| 0|100
140403/0900Z 177 02010KT 22.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 10:1| 6.5|| 0.00|| 0.10|| 0.71 0| 0| 0
140403/1200Z 180 36009KT 21.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 10:1| 6.5|| 0.00|| 0.10|| 0.71 0| 0| 0

[gosaints]

Money that GFS run def plenty cold at the surface around here. Almost looks could be an ice storm in some areas. How does the euro look?