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10/29-10/31 Halloween Winter Storm


Tom

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Terry Swails is also thinking the storm may trend north given the time of year.

 

He is giving regular updates on the storm at his website https://www.tswails.com/ .  He had been at KGAN in Cedar Rapids, but his contract was not extended.  He now wants to work on his website full time.  He loves snow so he'll be a good source all winter.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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First wave is still looking like a few hours of light snow well after dark.  It may as well be nothing.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Dang it.  The entire exciting week of snow is quickly crumbling apart for east-central/southeast Iowa.

 

What appears to be happening is the big energy diving south from Canada is splitting apart.  The eastern part is ejecting ene through southern Canada while the southern part winds up and moves into the central US.  Each run of the models the split is widening, which is allowing more ridging to bump up, which causes the bowling ball low to shift nw.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The weaker first wave on Tuesday is not doing my area any favors.  We need a stronger wave to pull the colder thickness lines farther south.  If we are sitting on the marginal thickness line after the first wave, the Halloween storm will easily pull the warmth up through us.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Oh well, this was never going to happen anyway. It's October. Cedar Rapids was probably NEVER going to get several inches of snow in October. 

 

Yeah, but I hate getting teased.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I really want snow, but it’s just cool to be looking at models this early. Always enjoy having that to look forward to during the day.

Right???  I was thinking the same thing earlier today.  This weekend really "feels" like storm tracking season has officially begun.  Looking down the road, I think there will be more chances for our region to see some snow.

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12z Ukie takes almost a similar track as the remnants of T.S. Olga up from LA due NNE into MI...

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

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It’s definitely nice to see more agreement in a significant storm now, but I’m worried climo is gonna pull through for this one and send it to W IA/MN.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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UK has the 500 mb low tracking through Iowa, which means nw Iowa gets the snow.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I believe you’re wrong

Personally I think the climo argument gets overused sometimes. It is good to have knowledge of previous outcomes... I'm not arguing against that. If you go by "climo", almost nobody in IA/WI should be expecting heavy snow since they happen so infrequently even there at this time of year.

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Here are some thoughts from Gary Lezak looks like we may have to wait until Tuesday to get a better feel for the track of this system, not a huge surprise.

 

What we think right now:

  • The storm doesn’t exist yet, as it is just energy as shown on the map above. So, this means there are many questions on how strong the storm will become and where it will track
  • I favor a track a bit farther north than what the European model showed yesterday, and more like the track it is showing today.  I base this just on climatology, as we don’t quite know enough about this years LRC yet.
  • By Monday night into Tuesday, this track will become more reliable.  Between now and then we will get the usual varying solutions from model run to model run.
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Not so sure on that NW trend. I think weaker overall. My location   has less QPF, but much colder air than the 00Z run. Similar W of me. 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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