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10/29-10/31 Halloween Winter Storm


Tom

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D4171AA6-BDA3-4273-A9C5-EDD67EE7FDD4.png

 

Some ensembles give some decent accumulations even for my area

 

Number 8 would be NUTS, lol. GFS at it's finest with the teasing..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I think the 2nd waves' track is highly dependent on what the first wave does.(and where any snow gets laid down, even for a day or so). I wouldn't get excited either way for the 2nd wave until the first wave moves on through and does it's thing.

Also- one would think based on climate that the 2nd wave would more favor the Dakotas' and MN - but Texas recently seeing TSSN - all bets are off on that and this air mass for mid-week is near records for lows. Anyone remember 1997? 7" of snow here in DSM late OCT right when the Marlins won the  World Series. Power outages due to leaves still on trees.

Yes I remember that storm very well. Got 6” here from that one including lightning and thunder. I have pics of the snow. There were a few comments about this storm in the October thread a number of days ago.
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I don’t have any real skin in the game, but here’s a good reminder from MPX:

 

As this system is still 5-6 days out,

and any small deviation to the initialization of the models occur,

this will lead to larger differences in the deterministic runs out

in time. The best method is to hold onto the ensemble blend and

discuss the potential of a storm system next Thursday. Please stay

aware of the forecast late next week as it does have the potential

of dropping lots of snow, with localized strong surface winds.

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There is much more model agreement today with the GFS now showing a
similar solution to what the Euro has had the past couple days. The
cold front stalls out around SE MI, perhaps just east of the region
Wednesday. This stationary boundary becomes the focal point for
isentropic lift which will bring widespread rain mainly for areas
south of I-69 starting in the afternoon Wednesday. A new surface low
develops on the southern tail of this front over the central Plains
and begins moving northeast during the day Thursday. The upper level
trough quickly becomes negatively tilted during this time allowing
for rapid deepening and intensification of the surface low as it
reaches the central Great Lakes. The system tracks across the state
early Friday and is over northern Ontario by Friday night. Heavy
rain is possible though the exact location of where the heaviest
rain sets up is still uncertain. Some snow showers or a least a few
flakes are likely on the backend of this storm as a cold airmass
settles in. Highs Friday and Saturday will only be in the 40`s.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Good write up by Hastings today. Gonna be an interesting week of model watching ahead of us!

 

The second potential accumulating snow is more impressive and both

the GFS/ECMWF have a closed and deepening/dynamic upper low rolling

across northern Kansas. Baroclinicity strengthens across the system

as very cold air filters in. Precipitable water availability is

quite a bit higher thanks to the slower/digging/closed nature of the

low. All of this seems to spell an increasing shot at accumulating

snow for much of the forecast Wednesday/Wednesday night and possible

early Thursday during the day. Winds with the system aren`t terribly

strong but strong enough for some blowing snow potential later in

the day Wednesday. The evolution of this second system is worth

watching closely, keeping in mind things are still 4-5 days out. As

for now, the forecast reflects a rise in precipitation chances mid-

week for this system.

 

Aside from the precipitation events, the main story is the cold for

most of the week. After the initial influx of cold air Saturday

night, cold advection levels off Monday and temperatures are bit

more steady, but still cold. The cold air will deepen significantly

on Tuesday night and Wednesday with -10 to -12C H85 temperatures.

There is some potential for near record lows in spots. You will also

have the opportunity to try on some single digit wind chills as

well. Temperatures may find some rebound Friday and Saturday, but

will still be quite a bit below seasonal normals, and may be

affected by some snow cover.

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Des Moines take on it. They make some good and interesting points.

 

The cold airmass will persist into Tuesday as a vigorous upper low

digs south through the intermountain west Tuesday into Tuesday

night. This system remains the elephant in the room so to speak

and will likely generate a lot of interest as it approaches the

Midwest Wednesday night into Thursday night. A few

items to remember with this system. First this system remains well

north over the Arctic Ocean an in a region with low

instrumentation for analysis. Second is model biases. These upper

lows tend to arrive slower and farther northwest post cyclogenesis

on the east side of the Rockies. This system will likely produce

accumulating snowfall somewhere along its path with a good

deformation precipitation band expected. However, a large amount

of uncertainty regarding the timing and projected path make it

unreasonable to project snow amounts for Iowa at this time. The

ECMWF made a nw jump today with the upper low while projecting a

large gap between the upper low and a surface low well to the

east, which is not likely. In addition, there is a significant

spread amongst the GFS deterministic run and its ensembles, with

the ensemble mean farther west and slower than even the ECMWF. The

current forecast will continue to carry snow mention but at this

time, it remains well too early to ramp up messaging beyond cold

and some snow accumulations possible due to aforementioned

reasons.

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I don’t have any real skin in the game, but here’s a good reminder from MPX:

 

As this system is still 5-6 days out,

and any small deviation to the initialization of the models occur,

this will lead to larger differences in the deterministic runs out

in time. The best method is to hold onto the ensemble blend and

discuss the potential of a storm system next Thursday. Please stay

aware of the forecast late next week as it does have the potential

of dropping lots of snow, with localized strong surface winds.

 

Next to LOT, your office seems to be about the most level-headed (aka professional balanced approach) wrt approach to the medium to long range. Not over-hyping, nor total discounting (see GRR most times), but instead maintaining proper perspective. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Gfs a little stronger on the 18z run with snow in South East Nebraska. Sweet.

 

Omaha and Lincoln get smoked. So laughable that the GFS was by far the weakest like yesterday and now it's the most juiced. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Gfs moving father SE this run as well

 

Gfs a little stronger on the 18z run with snow in South East Nebraska. Sweet.

 

I'd take this and call it a "win"  :lol:  Edit: What a way to open Novembrr!

 

20191026 18z GFS h138.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Omaha and Lincoln get smoked. So laughable that the GFS was by far the weakest like yesterday and now it's the most juiced. 

 

(Shhh! don't tell TOL_Weather)  :ph34r:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I have a running bet with my dad about snow here in Omaha but if some of those actually happen in central Missouri I think he would go crazy lol.

:lol:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Number 15 please! The NW shift last night stinks but this winter will have lots of action for all of us.

You betcha! ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Thursday nite into Friday morning could produce some snowshowers and wind here in mby from the backside of the low. Cold air filtering in behind this system could make for a snowy Friday commute b4 it ends.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Here’s a headline in Texas after the recent Panhandle snow:

 

“Pampa, TX – Heavy Snow, Whiteout Conditions, Stranded Motorists”

 

Yeah. I’ve never seen this so early. That storm packed a punch. Preview of the winter?

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Here’s a headline in Texas after the recent Panhandle snow:

 

“Pampa, TX – Heavy Snow, Whiteout Conditions, Stranded Motorists

 

Yeah. I’ve never seen this so early. That storm packed a punch. Preview of the winter?

 

:blink: WOW

 

Olga still raging here..winds are next! Her precip shield earlier was actually very wide and almost even west to well east of her center. Very bliz of '99-like. Had a thought. What if it were possible to get a copy of every major winter storm from the past 100 yrs...all in the same season  :lol:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Dear God it's only the 18z GFS but what a run. Even with a SE or NE shift I'm still in the game. I think we all knew it would come around considering all the other globals were showing a storm. What a fun storm to track.....AND IT'S ONLY OCTOBER

 

Guess I hadn't realized how similar today's Euro and GFS ended up being  :blink:  :huh:

 

Euro

 

20191026-12z Euro_mslpa_us.png

 

GFS

 

20191026-18z GFS_mslpa_us.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Here’s a headline in Texas after the recent Panhandle snow:

 

“Pampa, TX – Heavy Snow, Whiteout Conditions, Stranded Motorists”

 

Yeah. I’ve never seen this so early. That storm packed a punch. Preview of the winter?

Incredible .... :o

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Guess I hadn't realized how similar today's Euro and GFS ended up being  :blink:  :huh:

 

Euro

 

attachicon.gif20191026-12z Euro_mslpa_us.png

 

GFS

 

attachicon.gif20191026-18z GFS_mslpa_us.png

And recently, both were so apart. It took GFS  some time to realize it though. :unsure:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Gfs a little stronger on the 18z run with snow in South East Nebraska. Sweet.

Hope ya score big! ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Not to say I can't share the wealth, but I would love a nice snow storm. That and now I have two bets, with the wife and my dad over this storm lol.

:o :lol:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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