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10/29-10/31 Halloween Winter Storm


Tom

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Solid 2 inches here as snow continues.  19 degrees with a wind chill of 6.  Snow is very dry and powdery and is blowing around easily.  Some very small drifts in our parking lot and my driveway this morning of about 6 inches is kind of cool.  Streets are a little dicey so I put the truck in 4X4 Hi.  No late starts in this area but several west and southwest of here.  Reminds me of a Dec.-Feb. snow.  What a winter this could shape up to be.

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I can't help but think about how this system will look like in future cycles and could end up being a true Arklatex bomb if the pattern sets up just right.  It's nice to see the models show a significant intensification of the SLP as it tracks up the OHV where the LRC's Long Term Long Wave Trough is taking shape.

 

Truly a drool-worthy map for the mid-winter potential right where this has been lacking for several seasons now..

 

20191030 7am Surface.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Snow is starting to accumulate as I have my first coating of the season.  Nice big flakes falling and some heavier radar returns trying to budge north.  Extremely sharp cutoff right over my county.  Coldest temp of the season (32F)...#letitsnow

 

 

 

LOT.N0Q.20191030.1023.gif

 

Congrats on your early first snow! Hope to join the club tomorrow night myself. Again, kudos on a call for winter's early arrival in the heartland. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom, do you think this system will close off sooner in the next cycle?

Every cycle is different and behaves different. I’ve seen good setups in Oct/Nov turn out to be worse in the Winter bc of many reasons...Stronger jet stream, lack of blocking, etc. It can go both ways. It really depends on the pattern leading up to the storm systems target date.

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Sitting in my classroom before school starts, I have a great view.  My room is on the 2nd floor and has 3 large windows facing north.  I get to see the snow blowing off the roof of other wings of the building.  It is blowing very easily as it is very dry and powdery.  The simple joys of nature are just beautiful.

 

One more quick story.  In early September we had a girl move to our school from the Dominican Republic.  She is a Junior.  She had never seen snow and had not felt temps below 70.  Our early cold in October was a shock to her system.  When it was snowing on Monday afternoon, she had a look on her face of a kid on Christmas morning.  She just said how beautiful it was and couldn't wait to go outside and feel it on her skin. I heard other students complaining about snow, but her heart felt love of seeing something brand new like snow was for her, was one of those great moments that teachers talk about.  Thanks for letting me share.  

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Truly a drool-worthy map for the mid-winter potential right where this has been lacking for several seasons now..

 

attachicon.gif20191030 7am Surface.jpg

Man, great setup for hvy snows here in our neck of the woods.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Forecast here going w rain changing to snowshowers tomorrow nite (late) and continuing into Friday morning. Minor accumulations possible, if at all.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Look at this GOM moisture.....boy o boy, if this was later in the season........

 

1.jpg?&imgwidth=768&imgheight=432&apikey

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12z nam slightly weaker and east... decent snow still gets up to Cedar Rapids, but we're down to 0.30" or so and and there's a sharp drop-off as you head nw of CR.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z nam slightly weaker and east... decent snow still gets up to Cedar Rapids, but we're down to 0.30" or so and and there's a sharp drop-off as you head nw of CR.

I think when it's all said and done we will look at this run of the NAM and it will have nailed it.  We just needed it to close off a little sooner.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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One and only snow band not wanting to push in. After this looks finished. :(

Dont worry bud, we have lots of plenty Winter for you to enjoy the freshly fallen snow. Sit tight and enjoy the ride my friend.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Yes but I'm looking at 2.5 max, but I'll take it.

In a heart beat right..no questions ask! :lol: ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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All day long.  We haven't had accu,ulating snow in Oct since '96

:)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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While the 12z Surf reflection looks impressive for the Mitt, and 850's look fine, 2m temps don't get below freezing until late late Thurs night. What a difference a few degrees will make on this. So tough to get cold in here, especially with the fuller, warmer GL's we currently have. 

 

Maps for 7pm Halloween evening:

 

20191030 12z NAM32 850 Temps h36.png

20191030 12z NAM32 2m Temps h36.png

 

Per the NAM-12 (which I like graphically btw), a transition from RN to a mix/wet flakes occurs between 3-4pm and we get about a 8-9 hour "window" for the snow flakes to fly before the precip shield pulls east. Winds should be brisk, but nothing too extreme. Certainly nothing close to Nov '89 bliz memories. We'll have to try again at that later on, lol

 

20191030 12z namconus_ref_frzn_us_fh32-42.gif

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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While the 12z Surf reflection looks impressive for the Mitt, and 850's look fine, 2m temps don't get below freezing until late late Thurs night. What a difference a few degrees will make on this. So tough to get cold in here, especially with the fuller, warmer GL's we currently have. 

 

Maps for 7pm Halloween evening:

 

attachicon.gif20191030 12z NAM32 850 Temps h36.png

attachicon.gif20191030 12z NAM32 2m Temps h36.png

 

Per the NAM-12 (which I like graphically btw), a transition from RN to a mix/wet flakes occurs between 3-4pm and we get about a 8-9 hour "window" for the snow flakes to fly before the precip shield pulls east. Winds should be brisk, but nothing too extreme. Certainly nothing close to Nov '89 bliz memories. We'll have to try again at that later on, lol

 

attachicon.gif20191030 12z namconus_ref_frzn_us_fh32-42.gif

Nicely shown area of wrap around snow entering my area. Beautiful. I'll be satisfied w snow falling and not sticking. At least, its a nice welcome to the Autumn season. :)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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There is already snow in Central Iowa. I didn't know this storm was supposed to have snow already. I thought this was supposed to start tonight. 

Yep- and the smallest flakes I've ever seen. Could snow like this for eternity and it wouldn't add up to a .1". Makes pixie dust look like huge...

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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NWS recent update..gonna score my first winter headline of the new season??  Stay tuned..

 

 

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

As we forecast yesterday the snow did develop this morning, before
sunrise, causing some monitor accumulations as seen on some of
the our web cams (like Bangor and Allegan) plus the snow is
sticking on the grass and on cars at our office. The thermal
profiles indicate the atmosphere will become to warm for snow to
reach the ground by early afternoon. We do not expect and
significant accumulations (more than an inch) from this mornings
event.

We are thinking about some sort of winter weather headline for
Thursday into Thursday night as the latest model run (NAM12) we
should get some measurable snow. We have to coordinate with near
by offices yet through.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GFS with the final cave to the Euro and even the Canadian.  Oh well, 2" in October is pretty good.  It will be gone in a day anyways.  

 

That's the way I've been thinking about it. Unless we were going to get bullseyed, it's not the end of the world considering it'd be gone so quick anyway.

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Yep, it's looking like a 1-2" event for my area after all the model-following over the last week.  I'm sure this won't be the last time we are teased this winter.  Hopefully, a couple biggies pan out.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Yep, it's looking like a 1-2" event for my area after all the model-following over the last week.  I'm sure this won't be the last time we are teased this winter.  Hopefully, a couple biggies pan out.

 

As I've said before, I just hope we don't get this little early snow and then nothing again until 2020. I always fear that'll happen, but we shall see with time.

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We got about another half and inch to an inch of snow. I'm hoping it sticks around tonight as we have the Hallmark channel coming to my wife's hometown in David City! Believe it or not, this is where the channel originated from! Looking forward to it, here's a link to the events that is planned for tonight. 

 

https://www.1011now.com/content/news/Hallmark-arrives-in-David-City-on-Wednesday-564088681.html?fbclid=IwAR1UpMX1GM6j9xeVa6w0sWT9aCynxZa5Ncul7dq2kv5r8QrDYOIwfU8Anh8

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