10/29-10/31 Halloween Winter Storm

[Minny_Weather]

Already over an inch in Rosscommon. 33°F. Plows out in full force

[james1976]

Happy Halloween! Winter is here!

[Jaycee]

[shakjen]

Snowing hard now and blowing. Visibility is less than a 1/4 mile out my back of my house.

[Madtown]

Just dumping in SE Wi....report of 7" in Waukesha

[Minny_Weather]

1" in Gaylord. Dry air is gonna be a pain here.

 

I woulda gone mad if I still lived in Lincoln. 0.2" after being forecasted for 3-5".

[jaster220]

Already over an inch in Roscommon. 33°F. Plows out in full force

 

I like to see that. Your day is mine, circa 11-7-85. I think back then I just heard a "radio news rumor"  that there would be snow in NMI while we got rain for the weekend. I decided a chase was in order since it was a Saturday and didn't have to work. Got up near that same area over to Houghton Lake and was shocked to be in a snowstorm with 6+ down and more to go. Back then (@21) I had never seen a legit snowstorm so early in autumn. This time we down-staters look to get in on some action as well. Cool stuff - have fun and stay safe..

[Hawkeye]

I'm going with 3.9" total.  My deck and car had 4.5", but the snowboard had only 3.7".  The gauge caught 0.28" liquid.  Somehow, a spotter in northeast Cedar Rapids got 5.8".  The bands really were not set up to drop widely varying totals over small areas like that.

 

I wish I had a deck that extended out away from the house more, or a deck/patio table out in the open, where I could get some good measurements on elevated surfaces.  The snowboard would typically be plenty good, but there is a slushy layer at the bottom of the snow.

[jaster220]

SLP should start to take off any time now..

 

[Iowawx]

I'm going with 3.9" total.  My deck and car had 4.5", but the snowboard had only 3.7".  The gauge caught 0.28" liquid.  Somehow, a spotter in northeast Cedar Rapids got 5.8".  The bands really were not set up to drop widely varying totals over small areas like that.

 

I wish I had a deck that extended out away from the house more, or a deck/patio table out in the open, where I could get some good measurements on elevated surfaces.  The snowboard would typically be plenty good, but there is a slushy layer at the bottom of the snow.

Do you think that 5.8 total seems too high? I measured 5.0" which matches up with totals from Hiawatha. To me, seems like a lot of reports of 4.5-5 were common in the CR area.

 

I should mention that my 5.0" measurement was on an elevated surface. In my backyard, the measurement was about 4.5". 

[Hawkeye]

Do you think that 5.8 total seems too high? I measured 5.0" which matches up with totals from Hiawatha. To me, seems like a lot of reports of 4.5-5 were common in the CR area.

 

I should mention that my 5.0" measurement was on an elevated surface. In my backyard, the measurement was about 4.5". 

 

5" is reasonable.  I had 4.5" on the car.  5.7" or 5.8" (ne CR and Amana, right in the same line as me) just seem very high.  It's like, how in the world are spotters getting so much more than me?

[Madtown]

October or January weather station....wind isnt right its frozen solid!

[jaster220]

  Upgraded!!

 

 

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1127 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

MIZ052-058-059-064>067-071>074-312330-
/O.EXA.KGRR.WW.Y.0022.191031T1800Z-191101T1200Z/
Gratiot-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-Ingham-Van Buren-
Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
Including the cities of Alma, Ionia, St. Johns, Holland,
Hastings, Charlotte, Lansing, South Haven, Kalamazoo,
Battle Creek, and Jackson
1127 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Total accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Lesser
accumulations on roadways. Snow possibly sticking to trees.
Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central and southwest
Michigan.

* WHEN...From 2 PM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Slippery roads during the evening commute. Power
outages can be expected with strong winds and sticky snow in
trees.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This replaces the Wind Advisory that was in
effect for this area. Halloween decorations should be secured
against strong winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Allow extra travel time tonight. Be alert for possible branches
on roadways.

[jaster220]

THIS? is Halloween??

 

 

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

Observations as of 9:50 AM indicate our current rain/snow line
lies along a line from Muskegon to Big Rapids with snow falling
north of that line and rain/drizzle falling south. As this area of
mid- level f-gen forcing shifts east, all precipitation across
lower MI is expected to transition over to snow through the
afternoon and evening. Pockets of particularly heavy snow with low
visibility and hazardous travel will be conceivable along the
lake-shore thanks to a possible lake convergence band. Slightly
higher snowfall amounts than previously forecast will be feasible,
with up to around 2 inches possible for most areas south of I-96,
and higher amounts up to 3-5 inches possible to the north,
especially in higher elevations.

Despite warm ground temperatures, if snow rates are high enough,
heavy, wet snow accumulation will be possible on roads and lead
to hazardous travel particularly on bridges and overpasses as
gusty winds lead to efficient cooling. In addition, scattered
power outages will be probable as heavy, wet snow accumulates on
trees, some still carrying leaves, alongside gusty winds to
35-45 mph this evening.

[OKwx2k4]

Congratulations Jaster! Also Tom, Madtown, Kaycee, Northland09, Hawkeye, centralneb, St. Paul, TOL, Clinton, Iowawx....

 

I'm sure I missed a bunch of you, (not sure who all is looking at the beautiful white stuff today or yesterday) but I'm truly delighted for each of you who is enjoying a Halloween that you will probably never forget in your lives.

 

Weather is such a wonderful hobby and it's great to share the fun and historic weather days like this with the group of you. You are all a delight.

 

Here's to many more in the winter of 2019-20.

[bud2380]

I took a few measurements this morning and I had about 4" at my place when I left home.  The closest report near me I can find is Solon at 4.7", so it's possible my measurement was a little low.  I'll see if any other official spotters come out in North Liberty or not, but otherwise I'm sticking with 4" which already brings my season total to 6.8".  

[bud2380]

nevermind, just saw a 4.7" report from North Liberty.  Maybe we tacked on another half inch or so after I left home this morning, which is quite possible since it was still accumulating when I left.  So I'll take the official report of 4.7" bringing me to 7.5" for the year.  

[shakjen]

Hard to measure because it has been blowing so much but i have 4.75" is a couple spots that i could measure.

[Madtown]

Lake enhancement in SE Wi in October

[hlcater]

4.3" measured in downtown IC. 4.7" measured back in Hiawatha.

[jaster220]

Noteworthy is that this SLP is taking the same track as Jan '78, going up to Lk. Erie and hanging a hard left to S Huron. That is NOT a normal occurrence fwiw

 

DTX:

 

The various models (00z NAM/GEM/RAP13/GFS/ARW/NMM/European/ICON)
have also had a mass convergence on the surface low track as well,
through western Lake Erie and reaching southern Lake Huron/or just
to the east early evening, bottoming out at 987-993 MB depending on
the solution. Good wind pop with the 6 hr rise/fall pressure couplet
looks to be in the 8 PM - 1 AM window. There appears to be enough
evidence: strong low level cold advection, isentropic descent, and 50
knots noted at 850 MB, and even down to 925 MB level if one believes
NAM to support a wind advisory with gusts around 45 MPH.

[bud2380]

The Euro was a little off on its placement with this storm in the couple days leading up to it  It consistently showed the heaviest snow south and east of Cedar Rapids and Iowa City, and mostly into MO and IL.  But CR ended up in some of the heaviest bands.  The 3k NAM did a pretty good job in the 24-48 hour out range with the snow field and amounts.  The GFS didn't do bad either in the past few days.  Of course it was out to lunch when the storm was a week out while the Euro was on to it from the beginning.  So determining which model did the best is highly dependent on your criteria and how many days back you're analyzing performance.  

[East Dubzz]

GFS was also quite bullish on the amounts. Seems like the Euro was more realistic in that department as the storm came closer.

[jaster220]

Noteworthy is that this SLP is taking the same track as Jan '78, going up to Lk. Erie and hanging a hard left to S Huron. That is NOT a normal occurrence fwiw

 

Yep, over CLE attm. Airport there reporting 998.3 mb

 

[bud2380]

GFS was also quite bullish on the amounts. Seems like the Euro was more realistic in that department as the storm came closer.

You're right, I forgot the GFS had some ridiculous totals on a few runs.  It seemed to come in line better yesterday.  Euro was just too far east and south with the heavy snow.  It was down to roughly .15" qpf for Cedar Rapids, but I've seen reports of > .4" qpf 

[East Dubzz]

You're right, I forgot the GFS had some ridiculous totals on a few runs.  It seemed to come in line better yesterday.  Euro was just too far east and south with the heavy snow.  It was down to roughly .15" qpf for Cedar Rapids, but I've seen reports of > .4" qpf 

 

Yup. As often seems to be the case.. the best forecast usually comes from a mix of models.

[jaster220]

Cleveland Hopkins just before 2 pm was down to 995.8 mb

 

(for those tracking pressure falls)

[jaster220]

Per radar it looks to be flipping over just west of Kalamazoo already..

[Tom]

While I was marinating some chicken thighs in the kitchen, I look outside my window and it was literally blowing snow so hard it looked like a mini-Blitz along with leaves flying off the trees!  Fun to see on Halloween.  It's rippin' real hard right now with fatty flakes flying and sticking to everything...30dbz rates right overhead.

 

 

[james1976]

Wasn't the Euro bullish as well showing a lot of 9-10+ totals? Maybe it backed off those high totals in the last couple days.

[jaster220]

Cleveland Hopkins just before 2 pm was down to 995.8 mb

 

(for those tracking pressure falls)

 

Whoa!  And just like Jan '78, Hopkins went from a South wind of 6 mph at one hourly obs, to this the next hour: W 37 G 43

[Niko]

Looks like a nice coating to an inch possible for my area tanite. Enough to get the season started.

[Niko]

THIS? is Halloween??

 

 

.UPDATE...

Issued at 951 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

 

Observations as of 9:50 AM indicate our current rain/snow line

lies along a line from Muskegon to Big Rapids with snow falling

north of that line and rain/drizzle falling south. As this area of

mid- level f-gen forcing shifts east, all precipitation across

lower MI is expected to transition over to snow through the

afternoon and evening. Pockets of particularly heavy snow with low

visibility and hazardous travel will be conceivable along the

lake-shore thanks to a possible lake convergence band. Slightly

higher snowfall amounts than previously forecast will be feasible,

with up to around 2 inches possible for most areas south of I-96,

and higher amounts up to 3-5 inches possible to the north,

especially in higher elevations.

 

Despite warm ground temperatures, if snow rates are high enough,

heavy, wet snow accumulation will be possible on roads and lead

to hazardous travel particularly on bridges and overpasses as

gusty winds lead to efficient cooling. In addition, scattered

power outages will be probable as heavy, wet snow accumulates on

trees, some still carrying leaves, alongside gusty winds to

35-45 mph this evening.

  Break out the shovels...  

[jaster220]

Looks like a nice coating to an inch possible for my area tanite. Enough to get the season started.

 

I had not created my new snow measurement spread sheet for the season yet thinking I had some time...WRONG

[Niko]

I begged my cleaning lady to dress up as Jason from Friday the 13th. I cant stop laughing!  She looks hilarious.

[Niko]

I had not created my new snow measurement spread sheet for the season yet thinking I had some time...WRONG

Hopefully, the beginning of a great Winter season.

[Hawkeye]

The Canadian model was garbage the last couple days.  It trended to a very positive, strung-out crap system with little precip in the cold sector (nothing in Iowa).

[jaster220]

While I was marinating some chicken thighs in the kitchen, I look outside my window and it was literally blowing snow so hard it looked like a mini-Blitz along with leaves flying off the trees!  Fun to see on Halloween.  It's rippin' real hard right now with fatty flakes flying and sticking to everything...30dbz rates right overhead.

 

 

 

Congrats! How far are you from the lake-shore again?

[jaster220]

From IL Met on AmWx

 

This is the October version of a mid-winter 20" big dog.

 

[Jaycee]

I’m right on Lake Michigan and this is the heaviest snow I’ve seen in years. The lightning siren just went off as wel, must’ve been a lightning strike recorded around here. Absolutely amazing!!! Didn’t think we’d have anything but this is incredible. Woo!!!

 

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