10/29-10/31 Halloween Winter Storm

[Niko]

NWS recent update..gonna score my first winter headline of the new season??  Stay tuned..

 

 

.UPDATE...

Issued at 1045 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

 

As we forecast yesterday the snow did develop this morning, before

sunrise, causing some monitor accumulations as seen on some of

the our web cams (like Bangor and Allegan) plus the snow is

sticking on the grass and on cars at our office. The thermal

profiles indicate the atmosphere will become to warm for snow to

reach the ground by early afternoon. We do not expect and

significant accumulations (more than an inch) from this mornings

event.

 

We are thinking about some sort of winter weather headline for

Thursday into Thursday night as the latest model run (NAM12) we

should get some measurable snow. We have to coordinate with near

by offices yet through.

[FV-Mike]

Downers Grove, IL up to 3.8. Rain starting to fall for me. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Snow just stopped.  I would say 2-2.5" just by looking outside so not official.  Cloudy skies still with temp of 21 and wind chill of 10.  Potential record lows tonight around 10 degrees.  If the skies clear and with snow cover, they might slip below 10.  My goodness.

[Hawkeye]

As I've said before, I just hope we don't get this little early snow and then nothing again until 2020. I always fear that'll happen, but we shall see with time.

 

Just like early-season tropical storm activity means nothing for the heart of the season, I don't think early snow means anything for the rest of the season.  I think several years ago there was an October blizzard in the northeast US, but the rest of their season stunk.

[Grizzcoat]

We got about another half and inch to an inch of snow. I'm hoping it sticks around tonight as we have the Hallmark channel coming to my wife's hometown in David City! Believe it or not, this is where the channel originated from! Looking forward to it, here's a link to the events that is planned for tonight. 

 

https://www.1011now.com/content/news/Hallmark-arrives-in-David-City-on-Wednesday-564088681.html?fbclid=IwAR1UpMX1GM6j9xeVa6w0sWT9aCynxZa5Ncul7dq2kv5r8QrDYOIwfU8Anh8

MY goodness. If I brought my wife to this I would get a LIFETIME worth of get out of jail free cards--- Christmas movies (all with the same actors it seems) started like 2 weeks ago and my life has succumbed to living in the basement because the main TV is monopolized with Hallmark AND the dreaded Mother In law. But nothing Jack Daniels and following the weather can't handle....

[jaster220]

If you include the ~0.35" qpf from 3 am til 7 am, the 12z GFS gives mby 1.6-1.9" total liquid. Certainly has the moisture to be a BD during winter temps. 

 

[Niko]

I better put my garbage bins inside.....

 

[westMJim]

The rain/snow mix has stopped here. It was mostly a rain event here with some snow mixed in. It did not get any colder than 35 here.

[jaster220]

ORD broke the daily snowfall record with 0.9" this morning. Old record from 1923 was 0.7" 

 

One record down, more to come??

[Niko]

Jaster- how much snow are ya forecasted to get tomorrow nite?

 

[james1976]

Flurries are flyin here! This makes the 4th different day I've seen flakes this month.

[jaster220]

INDY? 

 

...WINDY WET AND COLD HALLOWEEN...

A shock to the system is in store to end October and begin
November across central Indiana. Wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph along
with falling temperatures and some potential for rain changing to
snow will make for a wet, windy and cold Halloween afternoon and
evening. Wind chills will drop down into the 20s by early Thursday
evening. While freeze headlines are finished for the year, lows
late Thursday night into Friday morning are expected to fall into
the middle 20s, producing a hard freeze across the area.

[Hawkeye]

The Canadian has trended toward the consensus from the other direction and now agrees with a 1-2" snow event for my area.

[Niko]

INDY? 

 

...WINDY WET AND COLD HALLOWEEN...

 

A shock to the system is in store to end October and begin

November across central Indiana. Wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph along

with falling temperatures and some potential for rain changing to

snow will make for a wet, windy and cold Halloween afternoon and

evening. Wind chills will drop down into the 20s by early Thursday

evening. While freeze headlines are finished for the year, lows

late Thursday night into Friday morning are expected to fall into

the middle 20s, producing a hard freeze across the area.

Wait till next month. Its still early in the game.

[jaster220]

Jaster- how much snow are ya forecasted to get tomorrow nite?

 

 

Tbh, per this from GRR it's looking like a car-duster at best down my way along 94. 

 

Include some warm clothes with those Halloween Costumes! Conditions on Thursday evening look a bit unpleasant for trick-or-treating, with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 30s through the evening alongside cold rain that will switch over to snow. Some snow accumulations will be possible by Friday morning, mainly on grassy surfaces.

[snowman1]

12z GFS --- Precip has stopped here in N/C Illinois. Most guidance saying it will fire back up overnight with that wrap around band sticking around through the early afternoon tomorrow.

 

Waiting for that advisory from DVN to see what they have to say.

 

[Hawkeye]

12z UK... a bit of an improvement for the nw edge versus the 00z.

 

[Niko]

Tbh, per this from GRR it's looking like a car-duster at best down my way along 94. 

Hopefully, you get to see some snow on grassy surfaces and cartops. It will be a great start to a this upcoming Winter.

[Jaycee]

34 and rain. Haven’t seen a flake yet. So crazy how that works, the lake can be your best friend or your worst enemy!

[snowstorm83]

...well that was a bust. Thought maybe we could eek out 2” but there’s been maybe 0.1”.

[Tom]

This satellite image is amazing and shows a sharp cut-off across the inter-mountain west all the way down along the TX border.  Can you spot the Arctic Front???

[Bryan1117]

...well that was a bust. Thought maybe we could eek out 2” but there’s been maybe 0.1”.

Dry air wins again... I am glad I wasn’t counting on much from this system and that it’s only October. I like snow that actually sticks around too, so I can easily live with missing this one.

[Iowawx]

DVN has just gone ahead with the first winter weather advisory of the season. Calling for 2-4 inches of snow for Cedar Rapids/Iowa City. 

[East Dubzz]

DVN calling for 3-6” here. I’ll believe it when I see it.

[dubuque473]

As I've said before, I just hope we don't get this little early snow and then nothing again until 2020. I always fear that'll happen, but we shall see with time.

If it is like last year I would take it! No snow til Jan then fantastic through April.

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro is similar to the UK... better snow pushed back into nw Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

 

Cedar Rapids gets about 0.15" from the Euro.  Models are in the 0.15-0.25" range for us.

 

[Clinton]

12z Euro

[East Dubzz]

12z Euro is similar to the UK... better snow pushed back into nw Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

 

Cedar Rapids gets about 0.15" from the Euro.  Models are in the 0.15-0.25" range for us.

 

Any idea on ratios? I'm assuming somewhere near 10:1, but I haven't taken a look or seen anything.

[Hawkeye]

The snow is expected to start this evening here and then be done by sunrise.  It's amazing how often it seems to work out like this.  In summer we get most of our rain at night and it's the same with snow in winter.

[gabel23]

MY goodness. If I brought my wife to this I would get a LIFETIME worth of get out of jail free cards--- Christmas movies (all with the same actors it seems) started like 2 weeks ago and my life has succumbed to living in the basement because the main TV is monopolized with Hallmark AND the dreaded Mother In law. But nothing Jack Daniels and following the weather can't handle....

Ha that's so funny Griz same thing is going on in my household. She just loves the heck out of the channel and it's always on. I too consist of living in the basement or working outside! I'm gonna start putting up x mas lights before I start basketball practice. I settle with Busch Light when I'm following the weather.......

[hlcater]

Any idea on ratios? I'm assuming somewhere near 10:1, but I haven't taken a look or seen anything.

10:1 seems reasonable to me...

[Hawkeye]

Some flurries have begun to fall here.  Models show no real precip until this evening, which makes sense given how dry the air is.

[Clinton]

Really fighting some dry air, all I have had is drizzle so far today.

[Iowawx]

Currently 33 degrees with light snow in Cedar Rapids. Wind chill is 21 degrees. 

 

I think 2-3 inches of snow seems like a good bet tonight. 

[Hawkeye]

[Niko]

Really fighting some dry air, all I have had is drizzle so far today.

That can be so frustrating during Winter when you get into that part of the storm.

[jaster220]

@ Niko

 

Looks like I may get "on the (snow) board" after all..

 

 

GRR

 

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

- Rain to snow near route 10 tonight

- Rain to snow rest of area by Thursday evening

- Most areas will have measurable snow by Thursday evening

- Windy and Thursday afternoon into Friday morning

- A series of clipper system this weekend into next week

[Hawkeye]

We are receiving solid light snow, with good flake size.

[jaster220]

Even NWS mentions "if this were winter.." 

 

 

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

We are issuing a Winter Weather Advisory for our northern
counties late tonight into mid morning Friday, then for the most
of the CWA near and north of I-96 from early Thursday afternoon
into mid morning Friday.

The models have come into good agreement on how this storm will
play out. An upper level system over eastern Colorado early this
afternoon will race northeast and close and try to go negative
tilt Thursday. The low at 500 mb will track just south of Michigan
but the trowal tracks across our central CWA during the mid
afternoon into the early evening. There is 20 to 30 knots of wind
nearly perpendicular to height surfaces as this is happening. As
that his happening the colder air is moving in. If this were later in
the year this would be decent snow storm for sure. However it is
still only late October. Model sounding show the freezing level
falling to near 500 feet over GRR by mid afternoon. This brings up
the question of how much snow can accumulate during the day with
temperatures just above freezing. Typically it`s a rate of fall
issue. If it`s snowing more then a half inch an hour it will
accumulate. The HREF is showing 2 to 4 inches over most of the
area near and north of I-96 (east of Lansing) by 8 pm Thursday. It
has 4 to 6 and locally 8 over our northern CWA. Given the system
is closing off with good trowal and cold air is wrapping into the
system I am concerned this will over-preform tomorrow. We were
rather conservative in our snowfall forecast. This will give later
shifts a chance to update as needed. The other reason to issue the
Winter Weather Advisory is this will be first decent snowfall of
the season and snow should be falling a significant rate around
the evening commute. Also winds will be increasing and given the
leaves are still on the trees we could be looking at power outages
from snow loading on trees.

All of this moves out by mid morning Friday. There is a series of
clipper system that come through after that. One Saturday then
another system around Sunday afternoon into Monday (warm
advection) followed by a stronger system in the Tuesday time
frame. This seem to have the coldest air of the season behind.

 

[Niko]

@ Niko

 

Looks like I may get "on the (snow) board" after all..

 

 

GRR

 

.SYNOPSIS...

Issued at 329 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

 

- Rain to snow near route 10 tonight

 

- Rain to snow rest of area by Thursday evening

 

- Most areas will have measurable snow by Thursday evening

 

- Windy and Thursday afternoon into Friday morning

 

- A series of clipper system this weekend into next week

Awesome. Good Luck amigo! Hope ya score bigly.