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November 2019 Observations and Discussion


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Did anyone get the memo from mother nature???  I think we are all getting a taste of what is to come right now.  While we close out the remaining last few days of a rather cold month of October, will this pattern continue into November???  The signs from nature and the signals in the model world are all pointing towards a cold month of November.  Is Winter knocking on our doorstep??  How many more winter storms will we see this month???  An early disruption of the Polar Vortex???  So many things to consider and discuss.

 

 

Let's begin....

 

First off, the trends in the CFSv2 are noteworthy and its establishing a North American Vortex that seems to be a dominating pattern over the entire Northern Hemisphere.  IMO, this is going to be a common theme over the coming weeks and months ahead.

 

 

 

CFSv2.z700.20191028.201911.gif

 

 

 

 

Temp trends...

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201911.gif

 

 

Precip trends...while they are rather dry, I don't necessarily believe this to be an accurate portrayal of what will transpire.

 

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201911.gif

 

 

 

 

After looking into the data, it is producing some convincing evidence the we open up the first couple weeks on an active and very cold (against norms) note.  There are a couple storm systems on my calendar that I'm watching that may very well end up becoming large winter storms (11th-15th) & during Thanksgiving week.  Who's fired up and ready for Winter???

 

 

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Came home for lunch and this buddy was hanging out enjoying the snow. He came right up to me to say hi. He knows he’s safe in the city limits that’s for sure.

Not sure if anyone has said it yet, but PivotalWeather has added a TON of new products for the ECMWF as well as 6hr intervals and regional maps. Gonna be *really* nice.   https://www.pivotalweather.co

Nebraska is a popular pass through for migration birds and just had over 100 geese go over head. Big changes up north must be occurring.

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Did see something around Thanksgiving. One of the few times I really want a pass on something. We travel through open Kansas and Nebraska. So any snow could easily go white out. Also one year had a nasty ice storm. That was a blast.

 

Makes it a memorable "adventure". At least that's what we say..

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I'm fired up starting Thanksgiving week until March.

 

CPC saying "get ready for some more winds with your Novembrr chill"  :)

 

20191025 CPC hazards_d8-14.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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That should knock down all of the remaining leaves by that point of time.

 

Point I was making is that I can't remember a stretch in any season with so many wind events/windy storms (aka strong storms) in all my years in the Mitt. One per autumn is kinda traditional, but even that's not a given. We're about to see our 4th, and it's not even November, the month of yore for windstorms on the GL's. I'm not sure how to assess this tbh? Either we're going to burn up a great thing before winter, or we've got a ton of fireworks to look forward to this winter.  :o

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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CFS definitely missed Texas precip.

 

We've received rain through the month and it's coming in as I write this the 28th.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Looks like after the strong low passes (Halloween storm), it stays cold:

 

Conditions will stay on the cooler side right through the upcoming
weekend. By Friday, the strong low will be continuing to move away
from the area allowing cold air to funnel across the region.
Westerly winds will once again be gusty on Friday before diminishing
overnight into Saturday morning. Another longwave trough will drop
down over the area this weekend, which will keep temperatures below
normal for the beginning of November. There also remains slight
chances for precipitation during this time period, however, most
areas look to remain dry.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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I'm ready to ride!   :lol:

 

Polar-Coaster-Ticket.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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How many times have we seen maps like these in recent years that resemble the Maunder Minimum temp reconstruction maps???  Check out the extremely close resemblance with the maps below and especially the 00z GEFS temp departures as we open up the first 1-2 weeks of Novembrrrrr...#climate  #solarmin

 

 

http://wiki.iceagefarmer.com/images/thumb/b/b4/MAP_-_World_GCM_model_of_Maunder_Minum_Temperature_Change_%28NASA_GISS%2C_2001%29.png/800px-MAP_-_World_GCM_model_of_Maunder_Minum_Temperature_Change_%28NASA_GISS%2C_2001%29.png

 

 

 

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_10.png

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Hey Tom- do you have a source for the "Annual Temp Change" map? Just curious as I would like to share it also on social media.

Thanks!

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Hey Tom- do you have a source for the "Annual Temp Change" map? Just curious as I would like to share it also on social media.

Thanks!

I just google "Maunder Minimum Temp Reconstruction Map"...a ton of maps pop up...welcome

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The models are starting to agree on multiple disruptions of the Polar Vortex as we enter into November.  The first of which, is currently beginning to take shape across Eurasia as seen in the 10mb animation below....

 

temp10anim.gif

 

 

 

The 00z GFS op run last night is showing it to continue through the end of October...

 

gfs_Tz10_nhem_5.png

 

 

Then another potentially even more robust disruption starts back up around the 10th/11th or so...will this be a re-ocurring theme???  Or is an early disruption on the table, one which is very rare before January.  It's been my pre-season idea so lets see how it all unfolds.  

 

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_30.png

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Gfs showing a big storm next Thursday - Saturday. Definitely agree Tom feels like a big switch just got flicked.

IMHO, we are about to see something truly "Special & Spectacular" and likely Historic as we flip the calendar into November.  I'm speechless right now based on the data that is consistently coming in.  Wild times ahead my friend!

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IMHO, we are about to see something truly "Special & Spectacular" and likely Historic as we flip the calendar into November. I'm speechless right now based on the data that is consistently coming in. Wild times ahead my friend!

I'll take me some wild times. Interested to see how much this solar cycle is fueling this. Also interesting that while solar activity is weak we keep getting these coronal holes forming and giving quick burst of energy.
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I'll take me some wild times. Interested to see how much this solar cycle is fueling this. Also interesting that while solar activity is week we keep getting these coronal holes forming and giving quick burst of energy.

Without a doubt Low Solar is having an impact this year and likely next year.  Let's get through this year's very Long Winter first....which will likely again hold strong into April.

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Without a doubt Low Solar is having an impact this year and likely next year. Let's get through this coming very Long winter....likely again holding strong into April.

Had an Uncle post up one of those old wise tales a couple of weeks ago. Cut open three seeds all three showed "shovels."
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Did anyone see the Euro Weeklies run last night???  I borrowed this off of Wx Bell's site and it looks like our Sub Forum is in for an interesting ride in November....

 

Granted, that's 46 days taking us well into Dec, but certainly as a gauge of whether it looks winter-like versus non-winter-like, I think we see hand writing on the wall..

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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November enters in on a cold note. My forecast shows 30s for highs/20s for lows and numerous snowshowers, especially 2nd wk of the month. I just hope it does not jack up December.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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November enters in on a cold note. My forecast shows 30s for highs/20s for lows and numerous snowshowers, especially 2nd wk of the month. I just hope it does not jack up December.

 

We keep seeing flash-backs of last season in a surprising number of ways so it's a bit unsettling. Lack of the monster SER will hopefully work to dispel my concerns as we go forward.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Here ya go Tom (from the OFA article)

 

The periodical actually used the word "snow-verload" to describe the conditions we can expect in the coming months.

 

;)

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Tom's bigger ticket storm looking like a November classic for NMI. It's truly beautiful up there when they get these..

 

20191029 12z GFS h348.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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We keep seeing flash-backs of last season in a surprising number of ways so it's a bit unsettling. Lack of the monster SER will hopefully work to dispel my concerns as we go forward.

:wacko:

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Did anyone see the Euro Weeklies run last night???  I borrowed this off of Wx Bell's site and it looks like our Sub Forum is in for an interesting ride in November....

 

What am I missing?  For the month of November and nearly half of December I would think this shows closer to average snowfall totals for most of the area on this map than anything else?  

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What am I missing? For the month of November and nearly half of December I would think this shows closer to average snowfall totals for most of the area on this map than anything else?

It just illustrates an average mean snowfall outlook. I just use this as guidance that is suggesting a nice storm track through our Sub. Not necessarily diving into the numbers so much.

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Looks like December here, not the end of October. Wow!

 

"Wednesday

Showers. High near 49. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night

A chance of rain showers before 1am, then a slight chance of drizzle or freezing drizzle between 1am and 4am, then a slight chance of snow and freezing drizzle after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday

A 10 percent chance of light snow before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 41. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 26. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south after midnight.

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 53. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Friday Night

Clear, with a low around 28. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming northwest after midnight."

 

It's not much but I'll take it.

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Hang in there, Okla. It’s comin’!!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I enjoy seeing nature line up on specific calendar dates and something really interesting happens over North America once we enter November.  As we open up the month, look up near the Archipelago on the 1st as we see a piece of the Vortex slide into North America which translates into the North American Vortex and takes over the entire pattern.  My goodness, this is about as pretty as it gets if you want to flood our continent with brutal arctic air.

 

 

I'm starting to see the GEFS getting wetter towards Week 2 of this month across the Plains and I fully expect this to fill in across the MW region.  With cold air entrenched and a pattern favorable towards producing more storminess, expect to see more wintry systems as Winter's barrage shall continue.

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

 

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I enjoy seeing nature line up on specific calendar dates and something really interesting happens over North America once we enter November.  As we open up the month, look up near the Archipelago on the 1st as we see a piece of the Vortex slide into North America which translates into the North American Vortex and takes over the entire pattern.  My goodness, this is about as pretty as it gets if you want to flood our continent with brutal arctic air.

 

 

I'm starting to see the GEFS getting wetter towards Week 2 of this month across the Plains and I fully expect this to fill in across the MW region.  With cold air entrenched and a pattern favorable towards producing more storminess, expect to see more wintry systems as Winter's barrage shall continue.

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

The CMC is picking up on exactly what your saying.  Early Nov. artic invasion.

gem_T2m_us_39.png

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Tom,

 

I'm curious. It's been a long time since North Texas saw snow.

 

Do you think it will sink far enough south to give DFW some of the white stuff?

I haven't been optimistic, but the cold air runs are indicating a lot of cold sinking south.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Tom,

 

I'm curious. It's been a long time since North Texas saw snow.

 

Do you think it will sink far enough south to give DFW some of the white stuff?

I haven't been optimistic, but the cold air runs are indicating a lot of cold sinking south.

 

Not Tom obviously, but POW Wx saying after a 5 yr snow-less stretch for DFW, you may see as much as 6" this winter. A bunch of dustings, or all in one storm who knows? 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Thanks for the update Jaster!

 

Wouldn't that be something?! It's been a long time. I recall deep snow in 2008-2009 winter here. Then it dried up. I'm hoping we don't start seeing it only every 10 yrs as I may have to travel to see snow.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I'm starting to get pretty excited. I'm pretty sure there will be snow on the ground by late November here. I don't see much of a way to avoid it, which is highly unusual given the last 4 years.

 

With 1917 playing out around CO, what does your historical data tell you for that year wrt early snows in your area? 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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With 1917 playing out around CO, what does your historical data tell you for that year wrt early snows in your area?

It was really limited to north of here until later into December. The temps actually looked pretty nonchalant all the way through November.

 

Historic is a pretty good word. Never anything like this so early. Not even 1917 or 1911.

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Well lets do it all over again next week and start some storm tracking.  It can be frustrating, but it pulls me in every time.

No kidding. I remember just 3-4 days ago when both the major models for multiple runs were showing eastern Nebraska getting 10-15" of snow and instead, I don't think I crossed 1/2" total between both events. :rolleyes:

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No kidding. I remember just 3-4 days ago when both the major models for multiple runs were showing eastern Nebraska getting 10-15" of snow and instead, I don't think I crossed 1/2" total between both events. :rolleyes:

That’s the frustrating part when it shows a big one. Hopefully the pattern stays active for us.

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