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November 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Thanks for the update Jaster!

 

Wouldn't that be something?! It's been a long time. I recall deep snow in 2008-2009 winter here. Then it dried up. I'm hoping we don't start seeing it only every 10 yrs as I may have to travel to see snow.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I'm starting to get pretty excited. I'm pretty sure there will be snow on the ground by late November here. I don't see much of a way to avoid it, which is highly unusual given the last 4 years.

 

With 1917 playing out around CO, what does your historical data tell you for that year wrt early snows in your area? 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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With 1917 playing out around CO, what does your historical data tell you for that year wrt early snows in your area?

It was really limited to north of here until later into December. The temps actually looked pretty nonchalant all the way through November.

 

Historic is a pretty good word. Never anything like this so early. Not even 1917 or 1911.

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Next week features high in the 30s and lows in the low 20s for mby. Brrrrrrrr.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Well lets do it all over again next week and start some storm tracking.  It can be frustrating, but it pulls me in every time.

No kidding. I remember just 3-4 days ago when both the major models for multiple runs were showing eastern Nebraska getting 10-15" of snow and instead, I don't think I crossed 1/2" total between both events. :rolleyes:

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No kidding. I remember just 3-4 days ago when both the major models for multiple runs were showing eastern Nebraska getting 10-15" of snow and instead, I don't think I crossed 1/2" total between both events. :rolleyes:

That’s the frustrating part when it shows a big one. Hopefully the pattern stays active for us.

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LES this weekend will be kicking in......

 

LESnowNew.jpeg?w=632

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Have to watch for a storm next week (Th-Sat timeframe). I think enough cold air will be in place for some snow accumulations. Who gets what, where, how much is all up in the air.

More white than wet?!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Have to watch for a storm next week (Th-Sat timeframe). I think enough cold air will be in place for some snow accumulations. Who gets what, where, how much is all up in the air. I believe that cold air will be available this time. More white than wet?!

Thje models look very cold, should be a fun month.

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Thje models look very cold, should be a fun month.

Indeed friend. Its looking active and much BN tempwise.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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LES this weekend will be kicking in......

 

LESnowNew.jpeg?w=632

 

Just like 13-14, there should be above to way above normal LES with the lakes so full and coming off a warm summer, then plunging into a cold winter. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It's going to feel like mid-winter later next week across the heartland and our northern members.  An active pattern is going to set up as we will likely track a couple systems moving through the northern half of our Sub.  A rather decent clipper is poised to track across the Upper MW Mon/Tue ushering a push of cold air out ahead of the next wave mid/late next week.  A sharp thermal boundary sets up shop over the Plains/MW/GL's.  Last nights 00z GFS is painting another snowfall for a lot of us.

 

As this pattern continues to evolve, one of the real exciting things I'm noticing is that we are not lacking tracking systems/storms.  In years past, a week would go by before the next storm started showing up on the models.  On the other hand, this year it seems like every other day there is a system traversing our Sub one way or another.  It's certainly not a boring pattern.

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The flip to winter has been fast and furious. I dont really see any letting up. We're constantly 15-20 degrees below normal and most of the sub have already had snow. Pretty remarkable

Indeed it is!  A lot of us will see daytime highs in the 20's next week with snow OTG during the 1st week of November.  That's something I haven't seen in a while.  I can't remember exactly when the Nov '14 cold came but I do remember going fishing in Wisconsin that month and there was already ice forming on the lake where I was fishing near the shoreline and launch area.

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Indeed it is!  A lot of us will see daytime highs in the 20's next week with snow OTG during the 1st week of November.  That's something I haven't seen in a while.  I can't remember exactly when the Nov '14 cold came but I do remember going fishing in Wisconsin that month and there was already ice forming on the lake where I was fishing near the shoreline and launch area.

2014 here at DSM-- from NOV 11 to NOV 21st had eleven consecutive days 10F or more below avg. Coldest day relative to avg was NOV 19th with a high of 19 - low of 11 . 23F below normal for that day.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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2014 here at DSM-- from NOV 11 to NOV 21st had eleven consecutive days 10F or more below avg. Coldest day relative to avg was NOV 19th with a high of 19 - low of 11 . 23F below normal for that day.

That sounds about right.  Thanks Grizz.  This year we are starting way earlier and maybe much harder and longer than '14.

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It's going to feel like mid-winter later next week across the heartland and our northern members.  An active pattern is going to set up as we will likely track a couple systems moving through the northern half of our Sub.  A rather decent clipper is poised to track across the Upper MW Mon/Tue ushering a push of cold air out ahead of the next wave mid/late next week.  A sharp thermal boundary sets up shop over the Plains/MW/GL's.  Last nights 00z GFS is painting another snowfall for a lot of us.

 

As this pattern continues to evolve, one of the real exciting things I'm noticing is that we are not lacking tracking systems/storms.  In years past, a week would go by before the next storm started showing up on the models.  On the other hand, this year it seems like every other day there is a system traversing our Sub one way or another.  It's certainly not a boring pattern.

 

In the great winters it seems to snow all the time. What I call the crisscross effect where the primary storm tracks overlap. This may be another magnitude above those! I envision some places (SWMI??) still digging out from one of these major S Stream systems when WHAM! a strong clipper is fast on the heels as we've been seeing several times so far.

 

That "spoof" map I posted with 16 snow days around here? might not be so far-fetched the way things are starting off.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Modeling now starting to show some of the break in the cold I'm anticipating post November 10th for we southerners in the group.

 

Our friends up north get to enjoy what looks like a "clipper-zipper" pattern throughout the run. Looks pretty exciting and fun for you all.

 

After that, sometime after the 20th, I expect to see the first real onslaught of deep southern lows, cold and snow to show their face for us down here in TX and eastern Oklahoma.

This is more in line with what I truly did anticipate and I do think it will come to fruition.

 

You folks got white Halloween. Can I get my white Thanksgiving after all? We shall see. The suspense builds....

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Modeling now starting to show some of the break in the cold I'm anticipating post November 10th for we southerners in the group.

 

Our friends up north get to enjoy what looks like a "clipper-zipper" pattern throughout the run. Looks pretty exciting and fun for you all.

 

After that, sometime after the 20th, I expect to see the first real onslaught of deep southern lows, cold and snow to show their face for us down here in TX and eastern Oklahoma.

This is more in line with what I truly did anticipate and I do think it will come to fruition.

 

You folks got white Halloween. Can I get my white Thanksgiving after all? We shall see. The suspense builds....

 

Pulling for you OKWx!  This glancing blow wrt the snow/winds/temps has me wishing for this to revisit after it's cold. 95% of this qpf will have run down the storm drain when said and done Friday. Be great if we could repeat this around Thanksgiving. Last year T-day was very cold but dry. We had some scattered left-over snow patches. The big storm hit the following Monday 11-26

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Next week should be interesting in terms of precip. By midweek, it starts getting quite cold (cold enough for snow). Lows have a shot of being in the teens.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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PER NOAA:

 

After the system passage Wednesday, the polar jet drops south to
near the MI-OH allowing for a very cold Canadian airmass to move in
across the northern Plains and Great Lakes region. With the lakes
still running in the 50`s, they will help to moderate this airmass
as it reaches SE MI keeping the coldest temperatures well west of
the region. That said, high temperatures are going to be very below
average struggling to even reach 40 Thursday and Friday.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Next week, especially, midweek on, will feature a very drastic change......

 

Pattern.jpeg?w=632

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1572521063571_1031novembertempoutlookAM.

Might as well pin that as the winter temps map

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Might as well pin that as the winter temps map

It might be colder than that....who knows.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Dont forget to set your clocks back 1 hr this weekend.....

 

Daylight saving time ends on the first Sunday in November, when clocks are moved back an hour at 2 a.m. local daylight time (so they will then read 1 a.m. local standard time)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Winter has definitely arrived early this year for the Upper Midwest. Forecast highs in the 20's next week in Wausau and International Falls. It's only early November too.

 

attachicon.gifwausauwiwxforecast13.PNG

 

attachicon.gifInternationalFallsMNwxforecast13.PNG

Started w a bang....that's for sure!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This is what we better get used to now....its here to stay.......

 

COLD_1031pm.jpg?v=at&w=1280&h=720

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Is it just me or does everyone on here think this cold pattern setting in is going to lock in like 2013-14 and last until march?

I just keep thinking of Nov-Dec 2014. Nov was well below average but December flipped on a coin to well above average. Why is a 2014 repeat not just as likely? Honest question.

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