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November 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Is it just me or does everyone on here think this cold pattern setting in is going to lock in like 2013-14 and last until march?

I just keep thinking of Nov-Dec 2014. Nov was well below average but December flipped on a coin to well above average. Why is a 2014 repeat not just as likely? Honest question.

 

Some say the cold is NOT going to "lock in". I don't think that term is well defined anyways since there needs to be a qualifier of duration (which always seems to be missing when peeps use it) such as "for a week" or "for November", etc. Personally, there is a chance we see 2014 vs 2013. I remember Nov 2014 was kicked off when a re-curving typhoon drove far north as a beastly post-tropical cyclone and dislodged a massive pre-winter cold wave. It also only lasted about 15 or 20 days, then all of Dec was a dumpster fire. If there's any leaning towards a colder outcome going forward this year, I believe it has to do with the over-all pattern setting up for winter vs. a temporary cold dump like we saw in 2014. Tom should weigh-in tho as he's the expert in this stuff, as well as OKWx

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Is it just me or does everyone on here think this cold pattern setting in is going to lock in like 2013-14 and last until march?

I just keep thinking of Nov-Dec 2014. Nov was well below average but December flipped on a coin to well above average. Why is a 2014 repeat not just as likely? Honest question.

I've maintained that there will be a "break period" and then another crash. That break starts around the 10th in my book and has for a long time. Ends around the 20th.

 

The tricky part is for the northern tier. You all have run well below average for longer in the pattern process than I have. My main targets for the warm up are the southern third and eastern third. I haven't had the continuity in the pattern that you folks have. Not really sure where Beltrami Island is either. My 2c. Would I like the pattern to run continuously? Yes. Will it? Probably not. Variance is good for snow though.

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I've maintained that there will be a "break period" and then another crash. That break starts around the 10th in my book and has for a long time. Ends around the 20th.

 

The tricky part is for the northern tier. You all have run well below average for longer in the pattern process than I have. My main targets for the warm up are the southern third and eastern third. I haven't had the continuity in the pattern that you folks have. Not really sure where Beltrami Island is either. My 2c. Would I like the pattern to run continuously? Yes. Will it? Probably not. Variance is good for snow though.

If you're wondering my location, I am in Baudette MN the Minnesota/Ontario border 60 miles west of International Falls

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Thank you. Yeah, you may not see many breaks. That's the freezer of the nation anyway. Lol.

 

I will add to my thoughts though, the pattern that was kicked off in November 2013 produced the coldest wall-to-wall year in far eastern Oklahoma and western and central Arkansas history (Jan-Dec 2014).

 

Not something you ever saw advertised in the public eye but the stats are there. That's one year off a solar peak as well.

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Welcome to November!  Waking up to a fresh snow pack, clear skies, calm winds and the coldest temp of the season (23F).  Winter has arrived early around the majority of our Sub.  It's rather memorable to see the amount of snow that fell across portions of the MW/GL's over the past several days.  Is this a harbinger of things to come???  Who really knows but I'll tell you one thing, the pattern is going to be favorable for more wintry precip over the next couple weeks.

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Is it just me or does everyone on here think this cold pattern setting in is going to lock in like 2013-14 and last until march?

I just keep thinking of Nov-Dec 2014. Nov was well below average but December flipped on a coin to well above average. Why is a 2014 repeat not just as likely? Honest question.

It has a lot to do with the alignment of the Polar Vortex.  Iirc, back in Dec ' 14 the PV centered itself on the other side of the Pole into Russia  that month and the flow at 10mb was not favorable to seed cold air into North America.  This year, however, there seems to be an ideal alignment on the N PAC side of the Arctic and the Atlantic side which causes a "squeeze play" on the PV which configures an elongated N/S alignment, or rather, a Cross Polar Flow pattern.

 

The way I see it, if the Strat continues to show bursts of warming over in Siberia/Russia this will continue to perturb the PV in a manner that continues to keep the flow seeding Arctic Air into North America.  

 

 

Gotta give kuddos to the GEFS as they well predicted (2 weeks ago) the first decent warming event that is ongoing now over Siberia/Russia.  It does a very good job in the long range.

 

temp10anim.gif

 

 

temp30anim.gif

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Good morning and welcome to November. The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 41/34. While the area was under a WWA there was just 0.1” of snow fall reported. The current temperature here at my house is 32° The average H/L for today is 54/37 the record high for today is 81 and that is a record high for November as well and that was set in 1950. That is the latest that it has gotten 80 or better at Grand Rapids. The lowest temperature for today is 21 set in 1976.  A brief October summery. The mean here at Grand Rapids was 50.8° and that is a departure of -0.8° The highest reading at GRR was 77 on the 1st and the lowest was 31 on the 26th There was 7.16” of precip and of that 0.3” was snow fall.

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Thank you. Yeah, you may not see many breaks. That's the freezer of the nation anyway. Lol.

 

Yes, when comparing temps I always look at departure from averages though. I laugh at what most of the country thinks is "cold". On the other hand I think 85 is "hot" in the summer and have gone entire summers without hitting 90.

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Some flakes here this morning. 30F.

 

Gonna have to pull the dock out of the water this weekend. After a high of 40F on Monday it might not get above freezing again for the foreseeable future. We should see some ice starting on the lakes very soon. My neighbor a few houses down has an annual tradition of waterskiing on the lake on Thanksgiving morning. I’m pretty sure that’s not going to be possible this year.

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Most of the models are very close to having a storm in the middle of the country around the 8th.  The CMC and Euro at times have had one, I bet by the end of the day or tomorrow we will have another system to track.

Fun times ahead! :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, its 35F under mostly cloudy skies and its breezy. WCF is 22F.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Great, looks like a 2013/2014 repeat. Northwest flow is terrible for us in Nebraska. We don't get much from the clippers and so our storm threat is basically nil in the pattern pictured above. No thanks.

:D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Monitcello, between Cedar Rapids and Dubuque, hit 12º this morning.  The CR airport reached the upper teens.  Here in the city we only reached the mid 20s.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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End of next week, my highs look very chilly. Highs probably at the freezing mark, if not colder and lows in the teens to near 20F. Way BN.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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If you're wondering my location, I am in Baudette MN the Minnesota/Ontario border 60 miles west of International Falls

I'm looking forward to reading your winter news. You're right there in the cold spot of the nation.

I'm farthest south so it will be an interesting winter news-wise.

 

Lots of freezes out there.

 

IMG_3978.PNG

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Yes, when comparing temps I always look at departure from averages though. I laugh at what most of the country thinks is "cold". On the other hand I think 85 is "hot" in the summer and have gone entire summers without hitting 90.

Of course, it's all relative and anomaly-based is the only objective measure I use.

 

I can get near 90 in late April and I hate it. :lol: I wish I had your summer.

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I hope the cold makes a liar out of me. I REALLY do. Would be the only time in a long time I'd be happy to be wrong.

 

I see you 12z GFS. Lol.

 

That would be destructive here.

You might take a look at the CMC, it has a wave that doesn't phase until it gets east of the Mississippi.  With cold air in place or lurking close it could make for a icy situation.  

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JB

 

ECMWF letting http://weatherbell.com  redistribute maps to the public, so will be able to put them on, Last weeks storm in NOLA was a walking talking advertisement for it as it nailed the highest wind gusts

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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