November 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

Any snow falling in Cedar Rapids? Radar looked decent there for awhile. It’s very light here in north Liberty

 

Barely a dusting here.  Models all had this snow band crapping out as it moved south into ec/se Iowa and they were right.

[jaster220]

I'm chilled looking at this

 

[james1976]

Nice surprise today! Just measured 1.8" of snow on the deck and patio table. Looks to be about the same on the grass. Roads had just enough to make em icy. Temp is down to 23. Everything is crusty. What a start to the season!

[james1976]

0z GFS still has no snow with the arctic front but looks like it still has some sort of system next Thursday

[Tom]

Waking up this morning to a cold outside temp of 27F with a  WC 14F along with blustery winds out of the N 17 mph G 24 mph and a light dusting of powder.  This the type of morning that smacks you in the face by Ol' Man Winter.  I have to help a friend of mine later this afternoon outside for a couple hours so you bet I'll be dressing in layers. Nice to see the clipper from yesterday perform quite well with numerous reports across S MN/S WI in the 2-5" range. 

[Tom]

Last night's 00z Euro still showing the Veteran's Day system as a wave of LP forms along the Arctic frontal boundary and lifts up through the OHV.  As Clinton said, the ICON was the first model to jump on this idea and still is showing run to run consistency.

 

00z Euro snowfall maps...

 

 

 

 

The Lehs signal on both the ICON/EURO is eye candy....I still think this one has potential to become something bigger and more widespread...let's see how future runs turn out.

 

[Tom]

It's amazing what a snow cover will do and clear skies.  Temps have crashed into the single digits in S MN/S WI from a fresh snow cover and some places are approaching 0F!  Impressive!

 

Rochester, Rochester International Airport (KRST) Lat: 43.9°NLon: 92.49°WElev: 1316ft.

Fair

2°F

-17°C

 

 

Current conditions at Pipestone Municipal Airport (KPQN)Lat: 43.99°NLon: 96.3°WElev: 1732ft.

Fair

0°F

-18°C

[Tom]

The JMA weeklies run today is impressive in many ways and I'll explain below.  First off, the NW NAMER ridge is locked and loaded through the next 4 weeks which basically keeps the upper level flow in a favorable pattern to keep flooding the lower 48 with cold air.  Second, if you take a look at the upward motion near Australia from Weeks 2-4 it is showing sinking air which suggests MJO Phases of 8/1.  Remember back in the middle of Sept we saw the MJO basically crawl out of phases 8/1 that lead into October???  It looks to me like this MJO pattern is cycling on its 60-day cycle and it would be right on schedule to enter into Phase 8 next week.  

 

Here are the Week 2 maps...

 

 

 

 

 

Week 3-4....notice the sinking air over Australia and rising air in the West/Central PAC...about as good of a pattern for the U.S. to be socked in a winter pattern.  Not to mention, the strong signal for the Aleutian Low to control the flow across the N PAC.  Are we going to run the table????  JMA says....what pullback???

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Canadian is a fun model to look at. Same system here.
 

[Stacsh]

Models backing off on the longevity and severity of the arctic air for early next week.  Will that pave the way for potential storminess?

[james1976]

Yeah the snowcover is doing its job! My car read out got down to 6° on my way into work! My phone said 9°. The roads were a sheet of ice.

[CentralNebWeather]

My truck said 9 degrees when I came to school at 6:45 AM.  Pretty amazing as we have no snow cover.  Our record low for the date is 1.

[Northland09]

When I went outside I thought it was quite chilly out this morning...wasn't expecting it to be only 7 F though!  They forecasted last night to drop down to 14F.  Our lows have been consistently at least 5 degrees below what's being forecasted, but that could be due to the fact that we are surrounded by swamp.  If forecasted lows will be around 8-12F next Sunday/Monday/Tuesday, I wouldn't doubt that we'll be reaching close to 0, especially if the skies are clear.  So weird to have to be dealing with this kind of cold when it's not late December/January. I need to finish putting my outdoor Christmas decorations up.  The ground is already frozen through the first inch of soil at the very least.  I haven't put a stake in the ground yet, so hoping I won't have to struggle too much.  All we need is snow!!!! 

[westMJim]

Good morning! The ground is covered with snow for the first time this winter season here. I have just under one inch of snow on the ground. With partly cloudy skies the current temperature here at my house is 24° and that is the overnight low. Officially at GRR the low looks to be 27° Yesterday the H/L at Grand Rapids was 36/25 That high of 36 was the coldest maximum since 1967 when the high was only 32. For today the average H/L at Grand Rapids is 52/36 the record high is 69 in 1916 and the record low is 14 set in 1991. The record snow fall amount is 6.0” set in 1951. Last year the H/L was 43/37.

[Minny_Weather]

The weenie band that was supposed to bring me flakes is currently centered over South Ontario (directly North of me) moving SE so there goes that. Now I'm just hoping for flurries so I can officially record my first flakes. 33.3*F.

[westMJim]

Here are some snow fall totals from west Michigan, yesterday and last night. Cloverville in Muskegon Co. reported 6.4″. Muskegon at the airport 6.2” Mt Pleasant 6.0” Howard City 5.0” Houghton Lake 3.3” Grattan 2.0” Comstock Park 1.5” here at my house 1” GRR .7”

[james1976]

Records are in jeopardy!

 

Top 5 Coldest Max Temperatures for November 11th

 

Des Moines - Forecast High 24

1) 24 - 1986

2) 25 - 1995

3) 27 - 1894

4) 28 - 1932

5) 29 - 1935

29 - 1968

 

Waterloo - Forecast High 22

1) 23 - 1986

2) 26 - 1995

3) 27 - 1932

27 - 1976

5) 30 - 1935

30 - 1996

 

Mason City - Forecast High 18

1) 21 - 1986

2) 24 - 1932

3) 25 - 1995

4) 26 - 1894

26 - 1935

26 - 2014

[Andie]

Temps dropping in North Tx. We're at 58*. Rain till afternoon. Then cloudy

We'll drop to 38* tonight.

 

Monday the Norther blows in and we'll be seeing highs in the 30's. A little early for that freezer or us.

I might add that lows Monday and Tuesday will be 28*.

[Niko]

EuroHR only model really showing much attm. Gives me 3+ inches, most of which seems to be with the potential wave on Vet's Day

 

20191106 12zEuroHR h150 Snow totals.png

I'll take this (4-6") for mby.

[Niko]

A blanket of snow outside coating my area and temps are 29F.

[jaster220]

First one for the GL's..

 

 

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
330 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2019

MIZ006-085-071900-
/O.UPG.KMQT.WW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-191108T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMQT.WS.W.0014.191107T0830Z-191108T0600Z/
Alger-Northern Schoolcraft-
Including the cities of Grand Marais, Munising, and Seney
330 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Moderate lake effect snow continues this morning,
becoming heavy by mid-morning and lingering into the evening
hours. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are
expected east of Beaver Lake to Cusino Lake to Germfask. Areas
across western Alger and northwest Schoolcraft counties will see
an additional 7 to 12 inches of snow. Locally higher amounts
are possible where stronger lake effect snow bands persist.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro tends to be cold biased, but not this much. A low of FIVE next Wednesday morning here. 

 

 

Also continues to show the storm for Vets day that nobody else is showing.

 

 

Sorry it took so long to edit this post, my internet went down in the middle of me editing it.

[Niko]

Accumulating snow possible on Monday......

 

NOAA:

 

Right entrance jet streak dynamics
and passage of the cold front to fuel snow chances throughout
Monday.

[Niko]

Euro tends to be cold biased, but not this much. A low of FIVE next Wednesday morning here. 

 

Euro 10.png

 

Also continues to show the storm for Vets day that nobody else is showing.

 

Euro 11.png

 

Sorry it took so long to edit this post, my internet went down in the middle of me editing it.

Looks fantastic!!

[Tom]

If we see positive trends today, I might want to fire up a storm thread for the Veteran's Day system...

[Tom]

Euro tends to be cold biased, but not this much. A low of FIVE next Wednesday morning here. 

 

Euro 10.png

 

Also continues to show the storm for Vets day that nobody else is showing.

 

Euro 11.png

 

Sorry it took so long to edit this post, my internet went down in the middle of me editing it.

Have you looked at the EPS snow mean???  How does that look over the past couple runs?

[Minny_Weather]

First flake of the season in Holland: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06.

[Minny_Weather]

Have you looked at the EPS snow mean???  How does that look over the past couple runs?

The members vary greatly. Most of them show at least SOMETHING. Some are just a light wave while some show a legit storm similar to Euro. The OP Euro is more bullish than any of the EPS members.

 

EPS snow mean is about 2.5" here with more over the mitt.

[Tom]

12z ICON still showing the Veteran's Day storm and starting to see some buckling in the trough right over the GL's where the Long Term Long Wave Trough has been showing up time and time again.  Storms have been intensifying throughout this region a lot this Autumn.

 

 

[Niko]

I have a real good shot next week w temps falling into the single digits for lows. Extremely cold air and record cold possible. If there is snow otg, temps will fall to extreme levels for this time of the year.  IIRC, the coldest is 0F set back in 1880.

 

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/DTW_Nov_rec

[Andie]

Don't you guys think that this Fall to Winter jog is throwing many models and forecasters off balance? 

We are, after all, at GSM and the big cool down is underway. 

Many don't accept this and are soldiering on.

[Clinton]

12z ICON still showing the Veteran's Day storm and starting to see some buckling in the trough right over the GL's where the Long Term Long Wave Trough has been showing up time and time again.  Storms have been intensifying throughout this region a lot this Autumn.

It will be snowing sideways as that artic front pushes through.

[Clinton]

12z ICON snowfall, would really enhance the cold.

[Niko]

12z ICON snowfall, would really enhance the cold.

Dare I say 4-6"+ for Niko's Pl??!!

[jaster220]

The weenie band that was supposed to bring me flakes is currently centered over South Ontario (directly North of me) moving SE so there goes that. Now I'm just hoping for flurries so I can officially record my first flakes. 33.3*F.

 

Actually scored a fluffy 0.2" here after all, mostly on roof tops and cars. Just patches on the ground with temps only dropping to freezing as the snow swept thru. 

[james1976]

12z ICON snowfall, would really enhance the cold.

Man I'd take that 3" all day and run with it! Would be fun to see especially with the wind and cold. It's like January!

[Tom]

I don't think it's been discussed but there is an interesting feature that has been popping up just offshore of So Cal and near the Baja.  Even through its been bone dry in this region, there is a trough like feature that continuously spins in this area and at times already this month since the 1st, it has "spit" off energy that merges into the flow over our southern tier of the Sub.  Could this be the LRC's STJ implication???  In the heart of winter when the jet is the strongest, this could imply an energized STJ.  You can see that this feature is aiding in the heavy precip across the southern tier of the U.S. today.

 

On Nov 1st...

 

 

 

Nov 3rd...

 

 

Nov 6th....

 

 

Nov 9th...

 

[Tom]

It will be snowing sideways as that artic front pushes through.

Hopefully we will both have a "powder day"....I love arctic fronts and snow....esp if the lake becomes my friend this go  around...

[bud2380]

The GFS performance at the roughly 5 day mark and beyond so far this season has appeared to be atrocious.  It's one thing if it has a storm and varies on strength and placement, but this is now the 2nd potential storm in a couple weeks that it shows no storm at all.  It ended up being way wrong with the Halloween storm until it got inside of 4-5 days.  I would be surprised if the Euro was the model that is completely wrong with the Monday system that is showing up.  

[Clinton]

I don't think it's been discussed but there is an interesting feature that has been popping up just offshore of So Cal and near the Baja.  Even through its been bone dry in this region, there is a trough like feature that continuously spins in this area and at times already this month since the 1st, it has "spit" off energy that merges into the flow over our southern tier of the Sub.  Could this be the LRC's STJ implication???  In the heart of winter when the jet is the strongest, this could imply an energized STJ.  You can see that this feature is aiding in the heavy precip across the southern tier of the U.S. today.

 

On Nov 1st...

 

 

 

Nov 3rd...

 

 

Nov 6th....

 

 

Nov 9th...

 

That could set up some icy days across the central and southern plains esp in Jan and Feb.