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November 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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The GFS has storm after storm dropping out of the west and forming over the Central Plains.  What a pattern this would be leading up to Thanksgiving week.  I was telling my kids of a blizzard that hit here 2 days after Thanksgiving of 1983 when I was a kid. We were stranded at my grandparent's farm for several days.  We had 3 snow days the next week as clean up efforts were slow.  Around here the winter of 1983-1984 was amazing with many storms/blizzards and the record breaking cold spell around Christmas.

The GFS is starting to pick up on the beginning of cycle 2 of the LRC.  I have some maps that I can post when I get home from work tonight, but 2 very big storms should affect us to close out the month, the first one on the 21st and 22nd should hit you hard and then a monster of a storm for the 28th,29th and 30th will affect almost all of us.  Good times ahead!

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The GFS has storm after storm dropping out of the west and forming over the Central Plains.  What a pattern this would be leading up to Thanksgiving week.  I was telling my kids of a blizzard that hit here 2 days after Thanksgiving of 1983 when I was a kid. We were stranded at my grandparent's farm for several days.  We had 3 snow days the next week as clean up efforts were slow.  Around here the winter of 1983-1984 was amazing with many storms/blizzards and the record breaking cold spell around Christmas.

The signal for a wintry week out towards Thanksgiving is growing.  Should be interesting to see how this all comes together.  I'm not quite sure how many hard cutters there will be but a SW Flow is likely to develop which will keep things active across our Sub.  I always find it fun to track winter storms during the holidays, unless of course, if you have to travel in it with family and friends.

 

 

snod.conus.png

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The signal for a wintry week out towards Thanksgiving is growing. Should be interesting to see how this all comes together. I'm not quite sure how many hard cutters there will be but a SW Flow is likely to develop which will keep things active across our Sub. I always find it fun to track winter storms during the holidays, unless of course, if you have to travel in it with family and friends.

 

 

snod.conus.png

wow this map looks awesome!! Epic December I can’t wait!!
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The GFS is starting to pick up on the beginning of cycle 2 of the LRC.  I have some maps that I can post when I get home from work tonight, but 2 very big storms should affect us to close out the month, the first one on the 21st and 22nd should hit you hard and then a monster of a storm for the 28th,29th and 30th will affect almost all of us.  Good times ahead!

:D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Its cloudy attm w temps at 22F. Snow is on the way for later tanite.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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wow this map looks awesome!! Epic December I can’t wait!!

 

psst. That maps only out to 11/29 fyi. December will be a whole different story altogether  ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:D

 

Monster of a rainstorm for us, lol. Don't forget, this pattern cycles by hitting those west of us first, then works our way as it progresses. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Monster of a rainstorm for us, lol. Don't forget, this pattern cycles by hitting those west of us first, then works our way as it progresses. 

I am assuming we have that Greenland Block going.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looks like we'll end up 2 or 3F deg's colder than yesterday for a high temp. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I am assuming we have that Greenland Block going.

 

I'm "hoping" we do. Kinda was thinking Tom would come back with the post he hinted at this morning.  :unsure:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It has been snowing lightly for the last hour.  We may get a bit of a break, followed by another patch of light snow.  The system ended up pretty weak.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Down our way, it's all over but the shouting. Warming up this coming week.

 

A5C6460E-AE82-4D59-9F84-E6E1331AFE64-294-00000017316748AE.jpg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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We didn't just break or shatter a 108 year old record today, we scattered, smothered, and covered it.

 

 

 

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT THE TOLEDO EXPRESS AIRPORT BOTTOMED OUT AT 8
DEGREES AT 632 AM EST, WHICH BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW OF 13
DEGREES SET IN 1911.
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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I wasn’t expecting to see any snow today but I’m currently getting some nice bursts of mod snow with big dendrites. It’s a nice and tranquil snow falling right now. Only about a fresh coating but the thing that stands out is, that it’s a snow on snow situation in mid Nov with a frozen ground. I haven’t seen that before.

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Its a cloudy evening w temps at 23F. Some light snow could coat the ground and up to an inch at the most.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Roads got pretty slick very quickly with the 1/2” of snow we got today. I saw the first ice fishermen of the year today on the small (83 acre) lake near my house. I sure wouldn’t trust that ice yet!

Someone already fell through the ice up in Cambridge. There’s absolutely no way anyone should be on any ice. There’s a good 4 months of ice time. No reason to rush it.

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Measured 0.1" on my deck this morning from yesterday's light snow before I hit the sack early last night.  I'm getting used to these cold days and waking up each morning with a snow cover.  Just a memorable stretch of weather these past few days.  It's not going to last so I'm enjoying every bit of it while its here bc I'm sure the snow will be gone by the weekend which is fine by me.  At that time, most of the leaves should be off the trees and I can do my final yard clean up and wait for nature to lay down the next swath of snow in our region...when will that be???   Well, let's take a look and dive into some LR ideas of where I see things playing out.

 

 

When the LRC was developing in October, I spotted and noted one of the missing links we have lacked over the past several years and that was the all important "Greenland Block".  This year, models have busted Bigly in the extended on blocking across eastern Canada/NE Canada/Greenland.  This has resulted in much cooler trends in the models in the extended over the past several weeks and the same thing keeps happening on the GEFS if you haven't noticed the past several days.  IMO, we are starting to see the beginnings of LRC cycle # 2 later next week and the Canadian/Greenland blocking which occurred back in early/mid October is showing up in the modeling for later next week, but especially during Thanksgiving when the fun and games kicks into high gear.  Rumors of storms???  

 

 

There are a couple things I want to point out and one of them is an important piece to the LRC puzzle.  Remember those maps I posted of the cut-off trough that kept hanging around the Baja/So Cal region in late October/early Nov??  The models continue to show this in the extended but now as we head deeper into the cold season, this part of the cycling pattern is likely to be the culprit towards an active STJ.  While it was very dry in October in the SW, things are going to get very wet down there and this is a great sign going forward.  

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_7.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_10.png

 

 

 

 

The storm that Clinton and I have been pondering about around the 21st/22nd may be the beginning of LRC cycle # 2 and the next storm following this one could be a large scale system that looks to cycle around Black Wednesday/Thanksgiving Day.  Yes, we may be dealing with a winter storm during the start of the Holiday season this year.  With major blocking already in place during Thanksgiving week, this sets the stage for a potential central CONUS winter storm across the heartland.  Still to early to say, but this is likely to be a cutter.  How hard it cuts is the million dollar question, but I'm almost certain we will be tracking a large storm around Thanksgiving.

 

 

If your wondering why the models are catching onto the blocking across the N Atlantic/Greenland, just feast your eyes where the significant warming at both 10mb/30mb is blossoming.  This is clearly the answer.

 

temp30anim.gif

 

 

temp10anim.gif

 

 

 

 

The 00z GEFS animation below....whoops!  Good bye are the warm anomalies....

 

 

 

 

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Much like Tom, I also picked up 0.1" overnight. 

 

Looks like today is the day the snow (at least most of it) goes bye bye. 29.8*F.

 

 

 

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
512 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-141245-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-
Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-
Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Port Clinton,
Fremont, Sandusky, Lorain, Cleveland, Mentor, Chardon, Jefferson,
Findlay, Tiffin, Norwalk, Medina, Akron, Ravenna, Warren,
Upper Sandusky, Bucyrus, Mansfield, Ashland, Wooster, Canton,
Youngstown, Marion, Mount Gilead, Millersburg, Mount Vernon,
Ashtabula, Erie, Edinboro, and Meadville
512 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019

...Untreated roads may be slick early this morning...

A coating of light snow overnight and early this morning has left
untreated roads snow covered and slick. Motorists should allow a
little extra time for their morning commute and be prepaired to
encounter slick roads, bridges and off-ramps.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Good Morning!  Yesterdays H/L of 25/15 was the 2nd coldest maximum and the 3rd coldest minimum in Grand Rapids recorded history. And the 3” of snow on the ground is the most snow on the ground for the date. At this time the November mean at Grand Rapids is 32.8 and that is a departure of -10.7. Here at my house there was just a trace of snow fall overnight and the temperature went up from 22 up to the current reading here of 28 with cloudy skies. For today the average H/L is 48/34. The record high is 68 in 1902 and the record low is 13 in 1969 the most snow fall was 4.5” in 1971. Last year the H/L was 35/25.

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More snow fell last night. I have 0.5" on top of my foot of snow now. Temp is at a balmy 25F.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Here is an interesting weather fact. While at Grand Rapids the average annual temperature has gone up in the last 30 years the average snow fall has also gone up as well. In the last 30 years the mean temperature at Grand Rapids is 49.0° and the 10 year average snow fall is 86.6”. The 20 year mean average temp is 49.4 and the snow fall average is 80.2” and in the last 30 years the average annual temperature at Grand Rapids is 49.0° and the snow fall average over the last 30 years is 78.4” So at least at Grand Rapids, Michigan over the last 30 years the mean annual temperature an the average seasonal snow fall has gone up.

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Looking at my forecast temps down the road, the warm-up that was expected is GONE! Also, looks stormy down the road. Question now is, will I be adding to this record snowfall that I received this month??!! Will the storm track continue to be an app-runner? Most importantly, I am keeping an eye on "The Greenland Block." Toms post above mentioned that the GB will be holding firm. Fun times ahead for sure here in SEMI.

 

tumblr_okvp1p7CPG1u501aoo1_250.gif

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looking at my forecast temps down the road, the warm-up that was expected is GONE! Also, looks stormy down the road. Question now is, will I be adding to this record snowfall that I received this month??!! Will the storm track continue to be an app-runner? Most importantly, I am keeping an eye on "The Greenland Block." Toms post above mentioned that the GB will be holding firm. Fun times ahead for sure here in SEMI.

 

tumblr_okvp1p7CPG1u501aoo1_250.gif

 

Not sure if that T-Day storm trends so suppressed as to target SMI, but I don't think we get totally blanked the next 16 days either. City of Marshall has gotten their downtown holiday lights up (mostly) even earlier than I remember so that we have them during this very early snow OTG. It's really like time fast-forwarded a full month. Also see more peeps with Christmas lights on this morning. Guess the snow's helping 'em get in the spirit.  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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