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November 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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GEFS Temp anom trend.gif

 

That's just incredibly bad model flipping. There are those elsewhere posting that our american models are programmed to always lean warm the further out you go, and it's obviously true. Whether you subscribe to any theory on just why that is, the performance results make it/them pretty much useless. I know JB frequently shows how horribly wrong the CFS has been at forecasting temps for this month. 

 

Per the BSR, this "should" indicate something of interest in the lwr OHV if I'm not mistaken. It grabbed my eye for sure.

 

20191114 0z ICON surf at h180.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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attachicon.gifGEFS Temp anom trend.gif

 

That's just incredibly bad model flipping. There are those elsewhere posting that our american models are programmed to always lean warm the further out you go, and it's obviously true. Whether you subscribe to any theory on just why that is, the performance results make it/them pretty much useless. I know JB frequently shows how horribly wrong the CFS has been at forecasting temps for this month. 

 

Per the BSR, this "should" indicate something of interest in the lwr OHV if I'm not mistaken. It grabbed my eye for sure.

 

attachicon.gif20191114 0z ICON surf at h180.PNG

The EPS has an evern wamrmer bias of late, the GEFS are colder Week 2 compared to the EPS so it ain't only the American models.  IMO, I think its just the fact that the models are "missing" the Greenland Block.

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What do you think about Gary’s comments today in his blog? He’s saying the LRC cycle may be longer than last years.

I read that, I guess we will have to see how next week goes.  I believe he had last years cycle at 43 days.  But to me that western trough and Greenland block are a big signal to what happened in early October.

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Gary claims there is no way to forecast long range without the LRC fully setting up. He says any forecast out before it sets up is a pure guess. So, Tom, you apparently are a great guesser.

 

I told him I beg to differ as you called this cold fall way back in Sept. You also called for early snows in the Plains and Midwest. You also called for the Veteran Day storm well in advance. Again, you are a great guesser!!! LOL

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Gary claims there is no way to forecast long range without the LRC fully setting up. He says any forecast out before it sets up is a pure guess. So, Tom, you apparently are a great guesser.

 

I told him I beg to differ as you called this cold fall way back in Sept. You also called for early snows in the Plains and Midwest. You also called for the Veteran Day storm well in advance. Again, you are a great guesser!!! LOL

Not exactly, before I know what the length of the LRC is, I use other methods for LR forecast/prediction. I’m not a great guesser...there is skill and thoughtfulness behind the madness!

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Gary, using the LRC, had a great year of accurate forecasts in 2019, it was rather impressive at times.

 

With regards to those accurate forecasts, he constantly mentioned we will have a wet winter, spring, and summer due to how the first cycle started. In KC, we had multiple storms in the first 50 days of the LRC and precip. totals were 8-13 inches across the KC area. So, he said because of that, he was forecasting a very wet year. He was right!

 

Now, in the first 35-40 days of this LRC, many areas of KC are very dry and we have had about 20 percent of normal.

 

The forecast, based off of last year’s reasoning should show a dry/cold winter, maybe an average spring with the fronts running into better moisture and once the jet stream retreats back to the north in the summer, the ridge should put KC into a drought next summer.

 

If you use the same reasoning as to why last year was wet(because 1st cycle was wet) then you should use the same reasoning this year and that is the first cycle was dry, no big, wide spread storms in KC, just scraps. If the pattern is cycling, shouldn’t we see the same results moving forward??

 

Thoughts??

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Tom, I know! I was saying what Gary thinks. I know it’s not guessing, you are great at predicting pattern shifts and you do it all the time, even before the pattern sets up.

 

BTW, how do I get your comment I’m responding too to be right above me. Not sure how to do that.

Use the quote button at the bottom of the post you want to respond too.
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Gary, using the LRC, had a great year of accurate forecasts in 2019, it was rather impressive at times.

 

With regards to those accurate forecasts, he constantly mentioned we will have a wet winter, spring, and summer due to how the first cycle started. In KC, we had multiple storms in the first 50 days of the LRC and precip. totals were 8-13 inches across the KC area. So, he said because of that, he was forecasting a very wet year. He was right!

 

Now, in the first 35-40 days of this LRC, many areas of KC are very dry and we have had about 20 percent of normal.

 

The forecast, based off of last year’s reasoning should show a dry/cold winter, maybe an average spring with the fronts running into better moisture and once the jet stream retreats back to the north in the summer, the ridge should put KC into a drought next summer.

 

If you use the same reasoning as to why last year was wet(because 1st cycle was wet) then you should use the same reasoning this year and that is the first cycle was dry, no big, wide spread storms in KC, just scraps. If the pattern is cycling, shouldn’t we see the same results moving forward??

 

Thoughts??

You have to watch for blocking as being a big wild card this year in future cycles. There’s more to it than just using the front 35-40 days as guidance to suggest it will be dry bc the storms that KC missed in the 1st cycle, may not miss you in cycles 2-4. Follow me? As the jet strengthens seasonally, the KC area, IMO, is in a very good spot this year. Lets look what happens next week when big time blocking sets up and the storm track is suppressed. Should get interesting in the Plains.

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Very interesting forecast shaping up here in SEMI for Thanksgiving Day. Looks like that GB will be taking shape and now models are starting to see it. My forecast has snow from the 25th to the 29th. I am eyeing more this storm than the one on the 19-21st. I think this November might go down as one of the snowiest eva. We will see. Fun times ahead! Also, it stays cold and way BN throughout the extended. Gotta luv this pattern. Lots of potential.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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You have to watch for blocking as being a big wild card this year in future cycles. There’s more to it than just using the front 35-40 days as guidance to suggest it will be dry bc the storms that KC missed in the 1st cycle, may not miss you in cycles 2-4. Follow me? As the jet strengthens seasonally, the KC area, IMO, is in a very good spot this year. Lets look what happens next week when big time blocking sets up and the storm track is suppressed. Should get interesting in the Plains.

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Tom, yes, I follow that. I get all the blocking, suppressing talk.

 

But...if blocking didn’t occur during the first cycle on a handful of storms, how would one forecast it accurately in future cycles??

 

Gary often says, “look at where this storm is now bloggers, nobody should be surprised as this same storm rolled through last cycle. The LRC predicted it perfectly!” When a predicted storm misses KC, he will blame it on blocking, or this, or that.

 

My argument, yes the LRC can predict a time frame to expect a certain type of storm in the plains or Midwest, but as far as location and precip. type, which Gary claims he can do, that too me is impossible.

 

Case and point:

 

Last year Gary called the 9 inches of snow in St Louis earlier in cycle two, the “St.louis snowstorm part of the pattern”. When the blizzard hit north central KS up to Omaha in early Feb, he claimed that the LRC nailed this storm!

 

The storm track was 800 miles further NW then it was in the previous cycle. It was 50 degrees in Omaha the day of the big snow storm in St. Louis, when the blizzard hit in the future cycle, obviously Omaha was in the 20’s, but St.Louis was in the 50’s and 60’s this go around.

 

How can this be predicted using the LRC? It can’t, right? How were the folks in Omaha prepared for a blizzard using the LRC months out? Remember, Gary claims he knows what the weather will be like in 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, 200 days into the future.

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The EPS has an evern wamrmer bias of late, the GEFS are colder Week 2 compared to the EPS so it ain't only the American models.  IMO, I think its just the fact that the models are "missing" the Greenland Block.

 

They don't "see it" or they don't process what they see correctly? Do you know? 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom, yes, I follow that. I get all the blocking, suppressing talk.

 

But...if blocking didn’t occur during the first cycle on a handful of storms, how would one forecast it accurately in future cycles??

 

Gary often says, “look at where this storm is now bloggers, nobody should be surprised as this same storm rolled through last cycle. The LRC predicted it perfectly!” When a predicted storm misses KC, he will blame it on blocking, or this, or that.

 

My argument, yes the LRC can predict a time frame to expect a certain type of storm in the plains or Midwest, but as far as location and precip. type, which Gary claims he can do, that too me is impossible.

 

Case and point:

 

Last year Gary called the 9 inches of snow in St Louis earlier in cycle two, the “St.louis snowstorm part of the pattern”. When the blizzard hit north central KS up to Omaha in early Feb, he claimed that the LRC nailed this storm!

 

The storm track was 800 miles further NW then it was in the previous cycle. It was 50 degrees in Omaha the day of the big snow storm in St. Louis, when the blizzard hit in the future cycle, obviously Omaha was in the 20’s, but St.Louis was in the 50’s and 60’s this go around.

 

How can this be predicted using the LRC? It can’t, right? How were the folks in Omaha prepared for a blizzard using the LRC months out? Remember, Gary claims he knows what the weather will be like in 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, 200 days into the future.

Its never the same outcome in each future cycle. Otherwise, the weather would be so predictable which it is not. He might be implying that the “same” pattern is rolling through and not necessarily the same exact result.

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I’m snow contractor, tell me how the LRC helps me more then just looking at the GFS every Monday. Please of course...lol

 

If one cycle can deliver cold and snow, and then the next cycle warmth and rain or a storm that misses us all together, what good is his 12 week forecast that he puts out.

 

Remember, I’m arguing the fact that he claims he knows what the weather pattern will be 30,60, 90, 200 days into the future. Why does he claim that, well, I’m Guessing because a few storms have come through identical from cycle to cycle. You will hear him say, “we knew this was going to happen based off the LRC”. Okay, what happens when they don’t reoccur??? Can’t have it both ways...right?

 

Using the LRC, can you tell me when my snow fleet will need to be prepared to go to work in Dec. Jan. Feb. and March. The Don of the LRC claims its possible, I say no way.

 

Your forecasting is quite amazing at times, but, you aren’t using the LRC all the time. How can Gary claim that nobody is capable of that without the LRC??

 

I’m not bashing the LRC or Gary, I’m a client of his. I’m just saying predicting future storms can be quite challenging and impossible at times if not most of the time. If possible, I challenge someone to give me a Jan/Feb/March forecast for when wintry storms will hit KC.

 

I only bring you in it Tom because you often reference the LRC.

 

Once again, you are pretty D**n good at sniffing out pattern changes. Thanks for all your updates, they are quite fun to read.

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GFS trying to do a plains phaser next Thursday. Doesn’t quite get there but it’s flashing something.

 

This one should be your storm SPS. not sure we see any biggies west of you going forward. Dakotas have done well the past 3 seasons wrt track. Can see them getting mostly clippers this winter, with MN being the western edge of the more phased southern stream storms/hybrids. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Also has a big Turkey Day storm, it will be fun to see what happens the next few weeks.

 

 

Thinking the first storm in a week goes north (cutter as Tom said), then the 2nd system may just track over Chicago-land. 3rd storm in early Dec that Tom mentioned and would be related to the image I grabbed from your ICON map via the BSR, would perhaps track more through the OHV. That's my best early guess call from this range. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Thinking the first storm in a week goes north (cutter as Tom said), then the 2nd system may just track over Chicago-land. 3rd storm in early Dec that Tom mentioned and would be related to the image I grabbed from your ICON map via the BSR, would perhaps track more through the OHV. That's my best early guess call from this range. 

That seems like a good guess to me.

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This map puts a smile on my face this evening!  Just checked, and I'm out-pacing last November by 2.6", with half the month to go. While last year's early snows barely covered the ground until the 26th storm, this week's been incredible. Since just passed midnight on the 11th, we've been at or below 32F for 4 consecutive days. The snow banks and piles across the region are still fresh and today's little coating may be why. I've seen mid-winter weeks that didn't look or feel this much like true winter. Actually, way too many just last winter, lol. The Mitt seems to be in a favorable position going into this winter. 

 

20191114 GRR Snowy Nov Graphic.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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N. GL's region has an incredible 94.4% coverage as of this morning. 

 

nsm_depth_20191114_Northern_Great_Lakes.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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N. GL's region has an incredible 94.4% coverage as of this morning. 

 

attachicon.gifnsm_depth_20191114_Northern_Great_Lakes.jpg

All of MI is covered in Snow. How cool is that.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Hard to believe how many records Detroit broke this week. From record snowfall, to record low max high, to record lows, to record snow depth, to earliest in the season eva being in the single digits, I mean, just an incredible week it has been.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Hard to believe how many records Detroit broke this week. From record snowfall, to record low max high, to record lows, to record snow depth, to earliest in the season eva being in the single digits, I mean, just an incredible week it has been.

What a difference than last years pattern when we had to deal with cutter after cutter that went west of our region.  I think the GL's region will do quite well this year and its off to a rocket start.  How much has your snow settled???  My snow pack is down to about 2.5" and I think it'll be gone by the weekend.  Most of my trees are almost bare and the snow cover looks ugly now with all the leaves blowing on top of it.  This isn't what I would typically like to say, but I actually would like it to melt so that I can do a final clean up!   B)

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