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November 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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18z GFS looking better for Thanksgiving, lets see if it keeps trending colder.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.png

 

Unfortunately, it's the GFS at h270, and it's not even depicting a mostly snow event. Won't get much buzz traction with that one, bud.  But on the other hand, how can we pronounce winter dead when it's still autumn? Half of my youth I spent gun hunting deer in NEMI and it was a rarity to have any snow OTG (for helping see movement and for tracking) for Nov 15th opening day. Yet, we had it in lower Michigan this year. That's really wild for me if I step back and dwell on it.  

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:) So, you take winter when you get it cuz that's all you can do, right? While it stopped by for an early visit I thought I'd get a few pictures with the beautiful day around here. Ofc I want more storms, but today's wx is difficult to turn down on a Saturday when I wasn't stuck in an office working. This is just outside a small city in Van Buren Cnty west of Kzoo. It was nice to need my shades  B)

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Unfortunately, it's the GFS at h270, and it's not even depicting a mostly snow event. Won't get much buzz traction with that one, bud. But on the other hand, how can we pronounce winter dead when it's still autumn? Half of my youth I spent gun hunting deer in NEMI and it was a rarity to have any snow OTG (for helping see movement and for tracking) for Nov 15th opening day. Yet, we had it in lower Michigan this year. That's really wild for me if I step back and dwell on it.

Great start to fall/winter. But we’ve seen this before. Means nothing for the rest of winter. So yeah when then models show nothing but rain after a epic start it’s disappointing.
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Great start to fall/winter. But we’ve seen this before. Means nothing for the rest of winter. So yeah when then models show nothing but rain after a epic start it’s disappointing.

It’s unrealistic to expect for it to continue as harsh as it’s been around here this early in the season. Just doesn’t happen in our latitude. Wait about 7-10 days as the pattern reloads. By Dec, I believe Winter will be settling back in for most of us.

 

For those who asked about the MJO, I believe the Euro weeklies were showing the warm phases. The JMA weeklies argue the opposite. The Euro has been terrible beyond Week 2 so take it with a grain of salt.

 

@Jaster, nice pics and a beautiful day it was to capture the scenic landscape. ORD tied its record 1”+ snow cover in Nov which was 6 days in a row...I enjoyed every single day of it. Time to clean up the yard and prep for the next snowstorm and hopefully have the Christmas lights/decor up by then!

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Hello everyone! Long time lurker here, figured it was high time to join the fray. As a Michigander (Northern Detroit suburb), I can tell you I am pumped for this winter!

 

Before I share a couple thoughts about next week's storm/storms I just want to give a shout out to Tom. Thank you for your dedication and insights. I first stumbled upon this site Labor Day weekend last year and while the winter ('18-'19) for me was a let down, I enjoyed the build up and hearing from everyone who did score big.

 

Now...for mid-late week, not ready to go fully onboard yet, but I'm riding with a CMC/Euro blend. Most models, even the hopeless GFS, to some extent, show the energy ejecting out of the SW in two pieces. Experience has taught me that more often than not the first piece is way weaker/drier than models depict, especially at this time frame. My gut says STL to CLE track with secondary piece. That's my two cents.

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It’s unrealistic to expect for it to continue as harsh as it’s been around here this early in the season. Just doesn’t happen in our latitude. Wait about 7-10 days as the pattern reloads. By Dec, I believe Winter will be settling back in for most of us.

 

For those who asked about the MJO, I believe the Euro weeklies were showing the warm phases. The JMA weeklies argue the opposite. The Euro has been terrible beyond Week 2 so take it with a grain of salt.

 

@Jaster, nice pics and a beautiful day it was to capture the scenic landscape. ORD tied its record 1”+ snow cover in Nov which was 6 days in a row...I enjoyed every single day of it. Time to clean up the yard and prep for the next snowstorm and hopefully have the Christmas lights/decor up by then!

The warm ups are actually a "hallmark" of a reloading cold wave pattern like some of the years we have all described this year.

 

They were very well expected on my end, actually. Think I have a post about it somewhere even.

 

If either of our patterning processes are true, then the pattern has restarted recently and this also corresponds/times well with the HPs that migrated into the Bering Sea a few weeks back and how warm the start of the cycles were.

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Hello everyone! Long time lurker here, figured it was high time to join the fray. As a Michigander (Northern Detroit suburb), I can tell you I am pumped for this winter!

 

Before I share a couple thoughts about next week's storm/storms I just want to give a shout out to Tom. Thank you for your dedication and insights. I first stumbled upon this site Labor Day weekend last year and while the winter ('18-'19) for me was a let down, I enjoyed the build up and hearing from everyone who did score big.

 

Now...for mid-late week, not ready to go fully onboard yet, but I'm riding with a CMC/Euro blend. Most models, even the hopeless GFS, to some extent, show the energy ejecting out of the SW in two pieces. Experience has taught me that more often than not the first piece is way weaker/drier than models depict, especially at this time frame. My gut says STL to CLE track with secondary piece. That's my two cents.

Welcome aboard!  It's my pleasure.  Nice to see another MI poster and neighbor by Niko's place.  Great start to your season and I think it's just the beginning to something special around these parts. Looking forward to your contribution on the board!

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Today looks like the last cold day of the stretch for me that started on basically November 11th-12th. That will be a very memorable Halloween to mid November run of cold I probably won't forget for the rest of my life. Probably one of the coldest 10/15-11/15 stretches in a long time also.

 

Rest of November looking pretty tranquil and variable from where I'm at before the pattern resets.

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Hello everyone! Long time lurker here, figured it was high time to join the fray. As a Michigander (Northern Detroit suburb), I can tell you I am pumped for this winter!

 

Before I share a couple thoughts about next week's storm/storms I just want to give a shout out to Tom. Thank you for your dedication and insights. I first stumbled upon this site Labor Day weekend last year and while the winter ('18-'19) for me was a let down, I enjoyed the build up and hearing from everyone who did score big.

 

Now...for mid-late week, not ready to go fully onboard yet, but I'm riding with a CMC/Euro blend. Most models, even the hopeless GFS, to some extent, show the energy ejecting out of the SW in two pieces. Experience has taught me that more often than not the first piece is way weaker/drier than models depict, especially at this time frame. My gut says STL to CLE track with secondary piece. That's my two cents.

Very nice to have another MI poster in here! I live so close to MI that I may as well be considered a poster from there myself. 

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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After 16 days November 2019 has a mean average at Grand Rapids of 32.3° and that is good for a departure of -10.6° So far the highest it has gotten this month is just 52 and if that holds for the rest of the month it will tie last year for the coldest minimum. Yesterday the H/L at GRR was 35/22.  For today the average H/L is 47/33 the record high is 70 set in 1958 and the record low was set just the next year (1959) at 9. The most snow fall for this date is 7.1” in 1989. Last year the H/L was 35/29.

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Hello everyone! Long time lurker here, figured it was high time to join the fray. As a Michigander (Northern Detroit suburb), I can tell you I am pumped for this winter!

 

Before I share a couple thoughts about next week's storm/storms I just want to give a shout out to Tom. Thank you for your dedication and insights. I first stumbled upon this site Labor Day weekend last year and while the winter ('18-'19) for me was a let down, I enjoyed the build up and hearing from everyone who did score big.

 

Now...for mid-late week, not ready to go fully onboard yet, but I'm riding with a CMC/Euro blend. Most models, even the hopeless GFS, to some extent, show the energy ejecting out of the SW in two pieces. Experience has taught me that more often than not the first piece is way weaker/drier than models depict, especially at this time frame. My gut says STL to CLE track with secondary piece. That's my two cents.

Welcome. Hope you get a lot of good information from this site and will be interesting to get some of your weather information as well. I have lived in the Grand Rapids area now for almost 40 years but I have lived in both Alpena and Bay City.  And being a big baseball fan I get to Detroit to see some games a few times each year. And yes I even go when the Tigers are bad. Plus I also work here in Grand Rapids for the Whitecaps and in the winter I work for the Griffins so I see a lot of the up and coming players for both teams. anyway once again Welcome.

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After a fast start to the season we seem to be in a lull. Which is ok by me even though it’s fun to track storms. But hopefully be early December we get a nice storm. I’d really like one powerful storm that drops 10”+ this year. It’s been a few years at least since we’ve had one around these parts. I’d have to dig back through my records to see when the last 10” snowfall I’ve seen was

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It’s unrealistic to expect for it to continue as harsh as it’s been around here this early in the season. Just doesn’t happen in our latitude. Wait about 7-10 days as the pattern reloads. By Dec, I believe Winter will be settling back in for most of us.

 

For those who asked about the MJO, I believe the Euro weeklies were showing the warm phases. The JMA weeklies argue the opposite. The Euro has been terrible beyond Week 2 so take it with a grain of salt.

 

@Jaster, nice pics and a beautiful day it was to capture the scenic landscape. ORD tied its record 1”+ snow cover in Nov which was 6 days in a row...I enjoyed every single day of it. Time to clean up the yard and prep for the next snowstorm and hopefully have the Christmas lights/decor up by then!

 

I was actually wondering if such a record was broken.  I remember thinking Friday... I don't ever recall having a snow pack for every single consecutive day of the work week/school week in November.  Any idea when the old record was from (both year and actual calendar dates)?  With this most recent tied record, one thing that is impressive is that it occurred in the first half of the month.

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I was actually wondering if such a record was broken.  I remember thinking Friday... I don't ever recall having a snow pack for every single consecutive day of the work week/school week in November.  Any idea when the old record was from (both year and actual calendar dates)?  With this most recent tied record, one thing that is impressive is that it occurred in the first half of the month.

Here you go...literally the same dates from 24 years ago...

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JB's Saturday summary yesterday was really good. He high-lights how the models (especially the Euro beyond 2nd week) have been horrible in calling for warmth, only to have troughs/cold actually come to pass. I think he said the GEFS have been schooling the Euro in this regard. He's also bullish on a Thanksgiving week storm through the midwest/OHV. All but says "plan on it", which is rare since his focus is always more from his place in C PA on east. He's keeping his eye out also for indicators that the historic cold wave this month results in yet another flip to a warm & snowless Dec (2014 & 2018 style). So far, his key indicator in the Indian Ocean is NOT at this time indicating such a reversal to warmth. He says from just last year, it will show up there first. He's also still liking his winter call from way back in August, and to my knowledge hasn't revised it, tho he mentioned reviewing it on last week's video which I didn't catch since I was TOO BUSY TRACKING our first snowstorm here, lol.  Anyways, it's one of the best ones I remember watching. 

 

https://www.weatherbell.com/video/the-saturday-summary-187

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Both the GFS/Euro are now showing the MJO loop-around in the cold phases over the next 2 weeks and well into December, IMO....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

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Here you go...literally the same dates from 24 years ago...

 

Thanks Tom!  I wasn't tracking wx via the web in 1995 (no internet yet where I lived), so I had little intel on whether or not the entire GL's region was getting the early winter I was getting in NWMI? I see indeed you/others were. That was the earliest winter I've ever experienced, which for my locale not only included the Vet's Day Bliz, along with several LES events, but also a Warned event sometime later towards Thanksgiving that hit me with 10" amts. That December was also extremely snowy in my county with almost non-stop LES storm warnings right up til Christmas Eve leaving mby buried to 40" deep! That was a winter wonderland dreamscape I was very privileged to experience.  :)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Both the GFS/Euro are now showing the MJO loop-around in the cold phases over the next 2 weeks and well into December, IMO....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

:D  Sweet!  Yeah, JB didn't key in on the MJO graphs themselves, but his reading of the Indian Ocean regions I believe is pretty much the same thing iiuc. Gotta go hang me some holiday lights!!  :lol:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Here you go...literally the same dates from 24 years ago...

Would add that the overall record for 1"+ snowcover any time in November is 8 days... the last 8 days of November 1950. Personally I think 6 days mid month is a little more impressive than 8 days at the end of the month though.

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Hello everyone! Long time lurker here, figured it was high time to join the fray. As a Michigander (Northern Detroit suburb), I can tell you I am pumped for this winter!

 

Before I share a couple thoughts about next week's storm/storms I just want to give a shout out to Tom. Thank you for your dedication and insights. I first stumbled upon this site Labor Day weekend last year and while the winter ('18-'19) for me was a let down, I enjoyed the build up and hearing from everyone who did score big.

 

Now...for mid-late week, not ready to go fully onboard yet, but I'm riding with a CMC/Euro blend. Most models, even the hopeless GFS, to some extent, show the energy ejecting out of the SW in two pieces. Experience has taught me that more often than not the first piece is way weaker/drier than models depict, especially at this time frame. My gut says STL to CLE track with secondary piece. That's my two cents.

 

Welcome from a fellow Michigander! (SEMI native from Genesee Cnty). Nice to see this very wide sub get slightly more balanced since I was vastly out-numbered by those to my west a few years back when I found this community. As a youth I always liked snow and anything related, especially fun things like sledding, snowmobiling, skiing, and even igloo building when I was a kid. So I was very fortunate to grow up during the snowiest decade for the S Lakes region and by simple memory, I recall snow conditions in my neighborhood back to 1972. Anything before that is a bit foggy tbh. I'm huge into wx history for this region (SWMI now since 2002) and I still enjoy solid winter like I grew up with. I'm not as savvy with all the model runs, actual meteorology involved with using them, etc as some on here. Still learning that facet. And yes, you have a great reason to be pumped for this coming winter imho. I posted before when looking at analogs how 2013-14 could've been even more monumental for SMI had even one decent synoptic system rolled through during that November (it was certainly cold enough). Now, in 2019 we've already scored such a system, and not just any run-of-the-mill system either but a historical record breaking/setting storm for Detroit proper! How rare is that I say??  I look forward to your inputs here with us!  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Nebraska is a popular pass through for migration birds and just had over 100 geese go over head. Big changes up north must be occurring.

 

Oddly, yesterday I was heading west near Fort Custer park and there was a flock of geese larger than I've seen in years. Had to be 200+, maybe even 300 geese looping around a bit as if in search of the best approach to land or something? I think normally local SMI geese will hang around in a mild winter, but perhaps this week has been a shot across the bow for them and this year instinct is taking over and they're getting further south? Pretty good coincidence that you've noticed it too. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Torching at 40F here today, but still about 8F below avg high for the day. Ground temps should've taken a hit this week, that's for sure. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Outperforming today’s forecast high again today. 3rd day in a row we’ve been above the forecast high by at least 5 degrees including hitting 62 yesterday. Was also supposed to be the only day below 50 until Thursday but we’re at 52 now. Should hit 50+ for 6 days straight which is a nice turnaround. Still dry as we’re at .05” of moisture (1” snow) for the month.

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70* High today.......Zzzzzzzz.

 

That is all.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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It appears the GFS did best with the Wed/Thu system cutting through the upper midwest/lakes.  The Euro now agrees with a widespread decent rain event.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Both the GFS/Euro are now showing the MJO loop-around in the cold phases over the next 2 weeks and well into December, IMO....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

I saw something on Twitter about the solar minimum causing the MJO to do wacky things like loops and reversals, I don't remember who said it or if it was credible, but is there a basis for this?

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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I saw something on Twitter about the solar minimum causing the MJO to do wacky things like loops and reversals, I don't remember who said it or if it was credible, but is there a basis for this?

I’ve never heard of that idea before. Could be true but in terms of this year, I’m basing it off the idea that the MJO is cycling, as well as, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

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I just did a quick search into the near record strength IOD which occurred back in October and it correlates to a very dry Australia. In most Solar Minimums, Australia tends to be very dry and records show this to be true. This could suggest more +IOD evens in the future? Would be an interesting correlation.

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