November 2019 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

Awful run of the GFS

 

What you get when there's no cold air to work with. Oddly, in the midst of an otherwise BN November of 2013, we had that really strong storm on the 17th without a flake of snow involved, even in the UP. The pattern can be wacky sometimes. 

[jaster220]

I am actually hoping we don't get anymore snow until December. We are quite behind for November rainfall. 

 

Who needs rain in Nov? Legit question since growing season is done, and farmers need it dry for final harvesting. Saw a corn harvester out this evening as a matter of fact. 

[Minny_Weather]

Awful run of the GFS

GFS is just all around a garbage model now thanks to the forced "upgrade".

[Niko]

Its a gorgeous evening outside. Temp at 32F under crystal clear skies. Lows will be in the 20s.

 

I actually played basketball earlier this evening (late afternoon)outside. Felt great! Meanwhile, had snowpiles next to me

 

Nothing like playing a basketball game right after a good workout at the gym. I really enjoy it like that.

[Niko]

After experiencing this beautiful sunny, milder afternoon, makes me wanna catch a break from the cold and snow. (for a week only )

 

 

I think my area broke the streak of 2 weeks BN. Today was the first day that temps went AN.

[Minny_Weather]

Maxed out at 51*F before temps plummeted as the sun went down. Surprisingly still some snow left in shady areas, along with piles obviously. 33.4*F.

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

Will be watching the southern system coming out of Texas, as
the 00/12z Euro is sort of out on its on bringing the deformation
associated with this system this far north. Outgoing forecast will
follow majority of the solutions, low chance/mainly a miss to
southeast Michigan. 12z Canadian/ICON/GFS ensembles have greater
separation between the northern/southern streams (stronger northwest
confluent flow behind Friday`s trough), and thus track the system
harmlessly through southeast U.S.

[Andie]

Chance of rain Friday.

 

 

Well,...beats nuthin'.

[Niko]

 

Well, well, well.....what do I see here.....

[Stormhunter87]

 

 

Well, well, well.....what do I see here.....

Interesting.

[Tom]

Rise N Shine! While back on the grind this morning, I'm beginning to see a distinct pattern from this LRC and that is one that has certainly painted a "hot spot", whereby, systems track down the east side of the Rockies and eject out near the TX Panhandle region. Since late October, we have seen 3 systems form in this same region. The more notable storms were the Halloween system and the most recent Veteran's Day storm system. They both took a track out of the Rockies and dug into the TX/OK region and then tracked ENE up towards the Lower GL's region.

 

Last nights 00z Euro/EPS is suggesting a similar storm track as the SLP forms in the "Slot" and shoots NE towards the GL's...very interesting...

 

 

 

[GDR]

Wow that thanksgiving day storm looks like a repeat of the last big one on the euro

[Clinton]

That little Friday system may just have enough to give me an inch or so of snow.  A little appetizer before the big dog comes in.

[Clinton]

 

Well, well, well.....what do I see here.....

I like it!

[Andie]

Looking forward to the rain.

All this 70* sunshine has everyone abit confused.

 

It should be cooler by about 20* for the high.

We're expecting a 77* High today. That's just nuts.

[Mi_Matthew]

 

Well, well, well.....what do I see here.....

[Mi_Matthew]

Oops, now I did it...

 

Niko, Canadian picked up our storm and the Euro lost it on 0Z runs. I like that it's still showing up somewhere though.

[Niko]

Interesting.

Yep, something to keep an eye on during the next couple of days.

[Niko]

I like it!

Indeed, looks good for your area.

[Niko]

Oops, now I did it...

 

Niko, Canadian picked up our storm and the Euro lost it on 0Z runs. I like that it's still showing up somewhere though.

We need a more northward track and we are in business.

 

NOAA:

 

Confluent mid level northwest flow and general high pressure will

ensure dry and stable conditions Friday, with temperatures a touch

below average. Southern stream wave then forecast to eject eastward

across the Ohio valley within the Friday night and Saturday periods.

00z model suite holding firm with this trajectory, effectively

holding the meaningful mid level forcing and resulting swath of

precipitation south of the area. Pattern certainly remains worth

monitoring, as any degree of pv interaction between this wave and a

trailing northern stream wave could draw this system northward.

[Niko]

Currently at 33F w ice fog this morning. Still snowcover around as well.

[jaster220]

We need a more northward track and we are in business.

 

NOAA:

 

Confluent mid level northwest flow and general high pressure will

ensure dry and stable conditions Friday, with temperatures a touch

below average. Southern stream wave then forecast to eject eastward

across the Ohio valley within the Friday night and Saturday periods.

00z model suite holding firm with this trajectory, effectively

holding the meaningful mid level forcing and resulting swath of

precipitation south of the area. Pattern certainly remains worth

monitoring, as any degree of pv interaction between this wave and a

trailing northern stream wave could draw this system northward.

 

At LEAST DTX will mention such a possibility. I've not peeked at GRR since they would just consider this a done deal (miss south) and not give it one sentence. From simple experience, these come north if there's enough cold to "attract them" so to speak. I'd keep an eye on temps. If they improve (look colder), then chances of a positive outcome will be on the increase imho. 

[Niko]

At LEAST DTX will mention such a possibility. I've not peeked at GRR since they would just consider this a done deal (miss south) and not give it one sentence. From simple experience, these come north if there's enough cold to "attract them" so to speak. I'd keep an eye on temps. If they improve (look colder), then chances of a positive outcome will be on the increase imho. 

I agree amigo. Reminds me of how the Veterans Day snowstorm developed. Remember when they were calling for partly cloudy skies just 3 days b4 the storm (Friday)and suddenly, on Saturday, forecasts were changing abruptly and by Sunday, my forecast was calling for heavy snow.

 

Btw: we might not be done adding snow totals to this record breaking cold/snowy November.

[Clinton]

Rise N Shine! While back on the grind this morning, I'm beginning to see a distinct pattern from this LRC and that is one that has certainly painted a "hot spot", whereby, systems track down the east side of the Rockies and eject out near the TX Panhandle region. Since late October, we have seen 3 systems form in this same region. The more notable storms were the Halloween system and the most recent Veteran's Day storm system. They both took a track out of the Rockies and dug into the TX/OK region and then tracked ENE up towards the Lower GL's region.

 

Last nights 00z Euro/EPS is suggesting a similar storm track as the SLP forms in the "Slot" and shoots NE towards the GL's...very interesting...

 

 

 

One thing I have in my notes regarding this storm was there was a lead wave of vortisity ahead of the big storm that came right through my location on Oct 9th and produced .30in of rain.  I keep looking for that to show up again.  I did find it interesting that last nights Euro had 2 storms but had the stronger one come through first.  

[jaster220]

Rise N Shine! While back on the grind this morning, I'm beginning to see a distinct pattern from this LRC and that is one that has certainly painted a "hot spot", whereby, systems track down the east side of the Rockies and eject out near the TX Panhandle region. Since late October, we have seen 3 systems form in this same region. The more notable storms were the Halloween system and the most recent Veteran's Day storm system. They both took a track out of the Rockies and dug into the TX/OK region and then tracked ENE up towards the Lower GL's region.

 

Last nights 00z Euro/EPS is suggesting a similar storm track as the SLP forms in the "Slot" and shoots NE towards the GL's...very interesting...

 

 

 

 

Too bad you had to put that "2nd E" after the "N"    Makes a huge difference for this area. Looks like lack of cold air will be the major problem for this cycle, but in future cycles if we have an entrenched arctic air mass, I would expect at least a front-end thump from this track. If we could do that 80's style, all the better! 

[jaster220]

We need a more northward track and we are in business.

 

NOAA:

 

Confluent mid level northwest flow and general high pressure will

ensure dry and stable conditions Friday, with temperatures a touch

below average. Southern stream wave then forecast to eject eastward

across the Ohio valley within the Friday night and Saturday periods.

00z model suite holding firm with this trajectory, effectively

holding the meaningful mid level forcing and resulting swath of

precipitation south of the area. Pattern certainly remains worth

monitoring, as any degree of pv interaction between this wave and a

trailing northern stream wave could draw this system northward.

 

GRR's comment:

 

Most areas should stay dry through the weekend, however areas

further southeast may see some light rain/snow on Saturday as a

low pressure system moves through the Ohio River valley.

Otherwise, generally quiet weather is expected to start off next

week before we see our next chance for precipitation by Tuesday.

[Stormhunter87]

06z gfs went bonkers in Western Nebraska and then to the northeast. Odd. Edit: 12z not as intense but keeping us warm for it.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS with quite the Central Plains storm next Tuesday night through Wednesday.  From rain/thunderstorms, to heavy snow.  This will be one to keep tracking and see how it all unfolds.

[St Paul Storm]

Wooo weeee. 12z GFS with a 970 flying overhead next Wednesday. A pounding rain followed by a windy snow blitz. Icon flashed a snowier solution a bit southeast.

[Niko]

GRR's comment:

 

Most areas should stay dry through the weekend, however areas

further southeast may see some light rain/snow on Saturday as a

low pressure system moves through the Ohio River valley.

Otherwise, generally quiet weather is expected to start off next

week before we see our next chance for precipitation by Tuesday.

We will just have to wait n see how all of this plays out for the weekend system. Dont be surprised for last second changes. Sit back n enjoy the ride amigo!

[Niko]

Meanwhile, we have TS Sebastien in the AO. Hurricane season not ova yet. 11 more days b4 it ends.

[bud2380]

i haven't seen the 00z Euro posted yet for next week.  Still showing a snowy system.  GFS is much further northwest and warmer.

 

[bud2380]

12z ICON is a middle of the road solution to the GFS and Euro.

 

 

[Niko]

Early December looks cold n stormy for SEMI.

[bud2380]

Canadian looks like the GFS

 

 

[snowstorm83]

Lol, CMC a Fargo special and Euro a KC special. Great consensus. 

[james1976]

8 days out. Gonna be fluctuations. There will be a storm though somewhere in the middle of the country.

[jaster220]

GFS Nov..png12Z GFS with quite the Central Plains storm next Tuesday night through Wednesday.  From rain/thunderstorms, to heavy snow.  This will be one to keep tracking and see how it all unfolds.

 

  GFS wants to start from scratch and go all the way back to late September. That would trash my call that the Dakotas were done with S. stream systems going forward. Cold air? where art thou? 

[Tom]

Big changes on the 12z GEFS with substantial blocking across western Greenland...IMO, this is THE best blocking scenario for our Sub.  West-based Greenland blocks tend to rock and roll across our Sub.  Having said that, the 12z GEFS run has turned much colder and snowier post Thanksgiving as we head into December.  Are we going to kick start the Holiday season with a major winter storm and roll it on through the Holidays???  Buckle up...Winter is coming back with a vengeance!

 

 

 

[jaster220]

i haven't seen the 00z Euro posted yet for next week.  Still showing a snowy system.  GFS is much further northwest and warmer.

 

 

Wow, that run actually took the massive swath away from E Neb and MSP. A notable change tbh.