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November 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Yep. For those who like late autumn wx, this is a top shelf afternoon. I finished my leaf moving and preparing for the next onslaught of winds this week. These conditions energize me since I can get aggressive and not have to sweat the sweating that happens most of the year. 

Good point amigo!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NOAA:

 

The next strong system is already showing up in the extended models
for next weekend. Still very far out but initially looks warm enough
for mostly rain with a change over to snow on the back side before
the storm pulls away
. Broad longwave troughing setting up looks to
ensure a cooler forecast beyond this system.

 

Note: I like the way they are using the word "Cooler"and not "Colder." Ummm, NOAA, its not Summer or Spring, its Late Autumn. The  word cooler could be used if temps are in the 70s or higher and lows cool off in the 50s or even 40s for that matter. Applying the word "Cooler" for lows in the teens and highs in the 20s to near 30F is not correctly written. Why am I not surprised. They had me under a WWA for my area when more than a foot of snow was forecasted to fall IMBY. :rolleyes: :lol:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Clinton--

How ya looking w this system coming for your area (11-26/28)?! Any meaningful snows?

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This one is a no go for me bud.  However Dec 1st that may be different!

Good luck w that one amigo. For my area, it was looking good, but now, its more of a rainevent, w maybe some backend snows. Colder air follows, but along w that, dry and cold (BN Temps). UGH!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Surprisingly, as of this morning there was still a small area in NWMI with decent snow cover. And ofc, the UP has decent to good depth for pre-TGD. Soon to be adding to their depth in a big way. Wondering just what I will see when I head to Traverse Friday?

 

nsm_depth_20191124_Northern_Great_Lakes.JPG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Surprisingly, as of this morning there was still a small area in NWMI with decent snow cover. And ofc, the UP has decent to good depth for pre-TGD. Soon to be adding to their depth in a big way. Wondering just what I will see when I head to Traverse Friday?

 

attachicon.gifnsm_depth_20191124_Northern_Great_Lakes.JPG

More snow otg.... :D ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Good luck w that one amigo. For my area, it was looking good, but now, its more of a rain event, w maybe some backend snows. Colder air follows, but along w that, dry and cold (BN Temps). UGH!

 

When exactly was it looking good for yby? What I saw everyone posting about yesterday was a ton of snow in MN and the same places that are under the WSWatches attm. I don't think it was really our storm. But, if you look at what Tom posted about the ICON, and you also look at how this morning's GEM handles the system in (2) parts, there may be a better outcome than just a plain ol rainer with flurries at the end. I'm actually feeling better about this next weekend than I was earlier today. It's many days away yet, so not going to prematurely write it off as a complete loss. (til I have to at least)  :lol:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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When exactly was it looking good for yby? What I saw everyone posting about yesterday was a ton of snow in MN and the same places that are under the WSWatches attm. I don't think it was really our storm. But, if you look at what Tom posted about the ICON, and you also look at how this morning's GEM handles the system in (2) parts, there may be a better outcome than just a plain ol rainer with flurries at the end. I'm actually feeling better about this next weekend than I was earlier today. It's many days away yet, so not going to prematurely write it off as a complete loss. (til I have to at least)  :lol:

Tbh, It was looking real good several days ago. I really though blocking would do its thing. Thankfully, it will not work that way because I forgot that I will have people traveling from here back home. :lol:

 

I'd say: after Dec 1st, let the storms occur. ;)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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When exactly was it looking good for yby? What I saw everyone posting about yesterday was a ton of snow in MN and the same places that are under the WSWatches attm. I don't think it was really our storm. But, if you look at what Tom posted about the ICON, and you also look at how this morning's GEM handles the system in (2) parts, there may be a better outcome than just a plain ol rainer with flurries at the end. I'm actually feeling better about this next weekend than I was earlier today. It's many days away yet, so not going to prematurely write it off as a complete loss. (til I have to at least) :lol:

The 00z ICON is doing it again tonight and showing a stronger 2nd piece along with an sharp temp gradient out in the Plains/Upper MW. In my notes, during the Oct 9th-13th period, there was a sharp temp gradient pattern so this model run may be onto something. I’d like to see the Euro jump on board with this “look” before getting to excited about the potential.

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The 00z ICON is doing it again tonight and showing a stronger 2nd piece along with an sharp temp gradient out in the Plains/Upper MW. In my notes, during the Oct 9th-13th period, there was a sharp temp gradient pattern so this model run may be onto something. I’d like to see the Euro jump on board with this “look” before getting to excited about the potential

That would make since I am excited.

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Attm, clear skies, not as cold as last night. Temps are actually rising...43F. No wonder....Winds currently coming from the SSW.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Tbh, It was looking real good several days ago. I really though blocking would do its thing. Thankfully, it will not work that way because I forgot that I will have people traveling from here back home. :lol:

 

I'd say: after Dec 1st, let the storms occur.  ;)

 

Can't have it that way with the weather, bud. We decided to host Christmas with both fam's back in '95 as we'd been in Traverse 4 yrs by then and it was our turn so to speak. Had 30+ inches OTG and were hit with another 6" LES bliz that morning. My fam convoyed thru and made it just as the worst conditions let up. They went home with a holiday trip they'll always remember as their snowiest Christmas adventure in the Northland!  Already, too much in life is put in a box and ordered on demand. Some things shouldn't be imho..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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That would make since I am excited.

 

Are you drinking too?  :lol:  :D

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The 00z ICON is doing it again tonight and showing a stronger 2nd piece along with an sharp temp gradient out in the Plains/Upper MW. In my notes, during the Oct 9th-13th period, there was a sharp temp gradient pattern so this model run may be onto something. I’d like to see the Euro jump on board with this “look” before getting to excited about the potential.

 

haha..I see. Not sure if the net results are any different for mby, but it does take the SLP on a more interesting trajectory for the Lwr Lakes. Thx for posting about it! 

 

20191125 0z ICON h162-180 Surf Loop.gif

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Can't have it that way with the weather, bud. We decided to host Christmas with both fam's back in '95 as we'd been in Traverse 4 yrs by then and it was our turn so to speak. Had 30+ inches OTG and were hit with another 6" LES bliz that morning. My fam convoyed thru and made it just as the worst conditions let up. They went home with a holiday trip they'll always remember as their snowiest Christmas adventure in the Northland!  Already, too much in life is put in a box and ordered on demand. Some things shouldn't be imho..

:blink:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NOAA:

 

Unsettled weather arrives again on Saturday and Sunday as the next
long wave trough kicks out into the central CONUS. Still substantial
differences in the ensemble solution space with the overall
evolution of this large scale feature. Likely some sort of long
duration mixed precipitation potential episode.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, its beautiful outside. Sunny and crisp w temps at 36F.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Big time wind coming for Wednesday. Winds could occasionally gusts ova 60mph. WOW! Tempwise will feel great w readings in the 50s...WOOOHOOOOOOO! :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NAM showing the Thanksgiving Day system.  Sadly the Euro dried up significantly in eastern Iowa on the 00z run.  Other models are showing nothing at all.  The one constant though is that the system seems to be weakening as it moves northeast and drying out.  

 

 

ref1km_ptype.us_mw.png

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NAM showing the Thanksgiving Day system.  Sadly the Euro dried up significantly in eastern Iowa on the 00z run.  Other models are showing nothing at all.  The one constant though is that the system seems to be weakening as it moves northeast and drying out.  

 

 

ref1km_ptype.us_mw.png

The energy of that storm is being absorbed by the storm coming through tomorrow.  I buy the solutions drying things out for Thanksgiving.

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The highest temperature so far this November at Grand Rapids is 53. Unless it gets warmer then 55 between now and Friday that 53 will be the 2nd coldest maximum temperature at GR. Records go back to 1892. At Lansing the highest reading so far is 54 and there also unless it reaches 55 by Friday their 54 will be the 3rd coldest maximum for any November and there the records go back to 1863. So yes this has been an overall cold November.  With 5 days to go the mean at Grand Rapids is now at 33.7° and at Lansing it is 32.4 and at Muskegon it is 35.3. The November looks to be a top 10 coldest at all 3 locations and at this time it is running as the 6th coldest at Grand Rapids and Muskegon and the 9th coldest at Lansing (remember records go back to 1863 at Lansing and that is the longest in the state of Michigan)

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I may get in on the action next weekend  :)

 

 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

 

Gaylord:

 

High Impact Weather: Another potentially strong storm over weekend

Thanks to the strong Canadian high passing by to our north, Thursday
and Friday should be much quieter and mostly dry. Slight chances of
precip creep back in from the west as another strong low pressure
system sweeps up from the Central Plains. This system has the
potential to bring more widespread snow through the weekend, which
will impact the backside of holiday travel. Large timing and
strength differences give plenty of uncertainty though.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I may get in on the action next weekend  :)

 

 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)

Issued at 320 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

 

Gaylord:

 

High Impact Weather: Another potentially strong storm over weekend

 

Thanks to the strong Canadian high passing by to our north, Thursday

and Friday should be much quieter and mostly dry. Slight chances of

precip creep back in from the west as another strong low pressure

system sweeps up from the Central Plains. This system has the

potential to bring more widespread snow through the weekend, which

will impact the backside of holiday travel. Large timing and

strength differences give plenty of uncertainty though.

Hang in there buddy. We are hopefully the hotspot for this incoming Winter.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, 48F under partly cloudy skies. Man, it feels soOOOooo nice outside. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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