November 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

What an active map! APX's CWA has 14 hazards currently. 

 

20191127 US Hazards map.JPG

Looks like a Christmas Tree.....

[St Paul Storm]

I’ll take the 0z NAM all day. That’s one heck of a storm, with one heck of a track.

[Clinton]

Awesome...there is something ya dont expect to get in late November. Hope ya get loud ones!

Had a few pass by but stayed dry.  The wind is really starting to crank now!

[jaster220]

I’ll take the 0z NAM all day. That’s one heck of a storm, with one heck of a track.

 

  Monster storm!  I'll be due east of MSP in Traverse Fri-Sun so I'm really hoping it holds together east of MN/WI. 

 

12z GEM had the idea 

 

[Mi_Matthew]

That high in Ontario for the weekend storm screams ice storm somewhere in Michigan (as some models are showing). I hope not here though!

[Niko]

Had a few pass by but stayed dry.  The wind is really starting to crank now!

Quite cool to see t'stms roll on thru in late November.

[Tom]

It's a balmy 50F as the warm sector of our powerful GL's storm passes to my north.  Winds are beginning to tick up as I sit underneath the "belly of the beast" as one would say.  While sipping on my coffee this morning, I reflected back over the past several years and realized how spoiled our Sub Forum has been.  Particularly speaking in regards to the northern half of our Sub which has seen so many Blizzard/ Powerful storm systems since about the 2017/18 season.  Is this something we should get used to in the coming years?  I'm beginning to sense that this indeed is a shift in the pattern overall across the U.S.  It'll be interesting how long this active period should last as we roll deeper into the Solar Min.

 

I haven't had much time to post lately due to the work load I've had lately and making preparations for the holiday.  It's a busy time of year and clients want to get things wrapped up before the holiday season.  In any case, I'll be the first to say the models had me fooled the cold would come down out of Canada after we get through this week of storminess.  I should have recalled from past experience when a SSW event or disruption of the PV is occurring, the teleconnections typically result in unfavorable conditions for wintry weather in the lower 48.  However, this will not be a permanent pattern in December bc I firmly stand on my original call that severe winter conditions prevail by mid & late December and I'll explain my reasoning below.  So, while I struck out on the coming "pull back" that is looking to last a good 10-15 day period, I don't expect to strike out later in December.  It really bothers me when I'm wrong as I strive to provide the best information possible.

 

 

While trying to keep a positive light on things moving forward, there are several LR clues I look for in the 2+ week period that favor for Winter to return.  My favorite tool to use are the 10mb/30mb maps that show the reversal of cold across the Arctic which has transpired over the last week or so.  The tendency for models to act erratic while an ongoing Strat Warming event is evolving is completely normal.  With that being said, the buldge in warmth across the Arctic at 10mb around the 20th of this month is a lead indicator to look for a reversal in the +AO spike in early December and watch for the AO to tank post 12/10.

 

 

The spike at 10mb/30mb is evident below....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IMO, I foresee blocking to redevelop in the same "hot spot" regions of NE Canada/Alaska and the N Pole during Week 2 of December.  As far as the MJO, last Monday's Euro Weeklies dramatically flipped from rotating through the warm phases on it's Monday run.  The JMA weeklies held stead fast and has lead the way.  Does the JMA continue to show this for tomorrow's run?  Do the Euro Weeklies also "see" the colder phases???  I believe so given the near record +IOD that is transpiring in the Indian Ocean.  I may be stubborn sometimes but I've long believed this would be a different December than previous warm ones that we have seen in recent years.

 

Here was yesterday's MJO run from the Euro...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

 

Phase 2 has some warmth overall across the N Sub with cooler weather in the west and south...

 

 

 

 

In regards to potential storm systems down the road, I'm still looking for a system to traverse the region 12/5 - 12/8 but this may be end up being a hard cutter given the pattern and using the EAR it makes sense.  Is there another cutter but with more blocking present between 12/12 - 12/14???  Is there a post Winter Solstice storm looming...a potential Blockbuster???  Does this lead into a cold/stormy Christmas holiday season???  I know we all would like to see a wonderful holiday season with bountiful snow opportunities.  The signs are aligning towards these ideas in the LR.

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

One last comment regarding the Strat, is this the part that breaks the camels back???  00z GEFS illustrating a complete reversal over the Pole and a major disruption of the PV.  This would lead to a strong -AO in the longer range and to look for the models to show the high lat blocking Week 2 in December.

[westMJim]

At this time the sun is coming up and there is just enough clearing to the SE to see the sunshine on the dark red and brown leaves on the Oak trees in the woods to my west. The temperature at this time is 51 and the wind well at this time it is still calm here.  Will have to see how any wind will stack up to past November storms. In my life time the bench mark storms are 1958, 1972, 1975 on the east side of the state and 1998 here in Grand Rapids. My guess it this will not be in the same category but we shall see. Like I said with a red sunrise the temperature here is 51 and there was 1.09" of rain fall overnight and Grand Rapids is now inching towards its wettest year eve

[Niko]

Attm, 45F w some light showers around.

[St Paul Storm]

The weekend system is fascinating. Might be quite a while until the models figure this out. 0z Euro showing about 8-10” here on Fri/Sat. MPX already going with 2-4” on Friday night.

[westMJim]

Just got back from my walk. The winds have now picked up and here in my area WSW winds of around 20 MPH with gust of up to 30 MPH. Mostly cloudy now with still some breaks in the clouds and the temperature of 50. The winds are doing a number of the Oak leaves in the woods to my west and it looks like it is raining Oak leaves

[KCSmokey]

KC Area endured heavy winds all night. There are a couple hundred power outages this morning. Very loud night in SE quadrant of the low.

[Clinton]

KC Area endured heavy winds all night. There are a couple hundred power outages this morning. Very loud night in SE quadrant of the low.

Did you get any of the thunderstorms?

[KCSmokey]

Did you get any of the thunderstorms?

Area only got .04 of rain overnight.

[Niko]

Winds are really picking up now. Ive been getting wind gusts of 50mph here. Wow!

[St Paul Storm]

We set the all-time wettest year on record with a nice 8” snowfall. Good stuff.

[jaster220]

That high in Ontario for the weekend storm screams ice storm somewhere in Michigan (as some models are showing). I hope not here though!

 

Wrong season for ice storms. Difficult to sustain required low level temps near freezing with a warm ground. They are usually a threat deeper into winter. The only one that sticks out a bucking that trend was Dec 1st, 2006. But that was way different set-up. 

[Niko]

It is amazing outside. Currently at 55F w sun n clouds (wind of course) but feels awesome. Gotta go to later to Windsor, CA n pick up friends of mine (CEO workers ) and told that winds there are even stronger.

[jaster220]

The weekend system is fascinating. Might be quite a while until the models figure this out. 0z Euro showing about 8-10” here on Fri/Sat. MPX already going with 2-4” on Friday night.

 

Yeah buddy!  APX is hesitant to buy into any larger amts at this range, but CPC already including my destination in the game! Can't wait..

 

  .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)

Issued at 342 AM EST Wed Nov 27 2019

 

High Impact Weather: Another strong storm over weekend

 

A deep west coast trough with a kicker wave rounding its base allows

energy to eject out into the central High Plains heading into the

weekend. This same system is currently breaking low pressure records

in Oregon and California, and is wreaking havoc with feet of snow in

the mountains. This energy quickly becomes a strong cut-off low

barreling straight toward the northern Ohio Valley. Recent model

runs have slowed down and gave a slight southward nudge to the

associated surface low. The past couple days guidance showed at

least a small chance of all types of mixed precip, but have now gone

with mainly snow. GFS ensembles are clustered at 1-2" and 4-6" total

snow for Gaylord, with some members going crazy with around 10".

Ridging from the Gulf of Mexico weakens as this system barrels over

it. Strong 500mb heights anomalies in central Canada/Hudson Bay

should force the system to take a more southerly track, but we`ll

see.

 

 

 

  Giddy-up! 

[jaster220]

It is amazing outside. Currently at 55F w sun n clouds (wind of course) but feels awesome. Gotta go to later to Windsor, CA n pick up friends of mine (CEO workers ) and told that winds there are even stronger.

 

Hope they're not flying in on one of those small-ish planes my daughter has flown out of Windsor's little airport. Yikes!

[Stormgeek]

Let's hope this thing trends south and slams into here! Might as well lay it on even thicker. Actually would be better as snow though because rain and/or ice could cause the chaos around here.

[St Paul Storm]

Let's hope this thing trends south and slams into here! Might as well lay it on even thicker. Actually would be better as snow though because rain and/or ice could cause the chaos around here.

Right now we have the NAM, GEM, Euro and to an extent Icon on our side. GFS is way warm.

[CentralNebWeather]

Supposed to get another 1-3” tomorrow morning before it starts changing to freezing rain then rain on Friday

[jaster220]

Right now we have the NAM, GEM, Euro and to an extent Icon on our side. GFS is way warm.

 

My office prolly running with that. Already pretty much saying "nothing to see here". Don't even mention other "possible" scenarios/models/outcomes, lol

 

GRR-

 

The next storm is already moving ashore in California and makes

its way to the Great Lakes this weekend. It may start as some

mixed precip Saturday morning, including freezing rain across the

northern interior zones, but should transition to rain as

temperatures rise above freezing by late morning or early

afternoon. The low moves east across the region with cold air on

the back and rain changing to snow Saturday night into Sunday.

Some light accums are possible but temperatures are marginal and

travel impacts should not be great.

[bud2380]

Definitely time to start up a storm thread for the weekend system.  Someone's gonna get blasted.  

[jaster220]

Definitely time to start up a storm thread for the weekend system.  Someone's gonna get blasted.  

 

AmWx just running a combined thread. Maybe Tom wants to tweak the thread title and just do the same??

[Madtown]

feeling bah humbuggy about this weekend

[St Paul Storm]

AmWx just running a combined thread. Maybe Tom wants to tweak the thread title and just do the same??

They probably combined threads because they only have 2 pages from storm#1. That’s not a slight....just an observation.

[Niko]

Hope they're not flying in on one of those small-ish planes my daughter has flown out of Windsor's little airport. Yikes!

  I had thought of that also....

[Niko]

Attm, very windy..w wind gusts to as high as 55mph. I even had a severe Thunderstorm Warning earlier. Main hazard was damaging winds and torrential downpours.

[jaster220]

Right now we have the NAM, GEM, Euro and to an extent Icon on our side. GFS is way warm.

 

12z Euro surf loop didn't look too impressive. How is it for yby?

[Tom]

Last, but not least, the final "hoorah" from nature...what will likely end up becoming a very memorable month of November for a lot of us on here...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2131-1128-121-powerful-winter-storm/

[Niko]

No real cold air to be found for mby. Next week keeps getting warmer and warmer. Now, I have near 40 to low 40s for highs w rain chances into the 9th of December. Half of December looks to be wasted away as for now. Hope that changes. Who knows,..we will see.

[jaster220]

They probably combined threads because they only have 2 pages from storm#1. That’s not a slight....just an observation.

 

Well, thread was begun by a WI member who apparently was in the game for both so just called it Thanksgiving Week Storms. That "Sub" has even fewer members who were actually in the snow with the first storm, so naturally posts were minimal. 2nd storm also mostly a miss. Sub is mainly Eastern IA over to CLE +/- a state north & south. Few there participate with others when the snow's only elsewhere and not directly at their locale. It's much better here where we banter whether we are in the game or not. 

[Niko]

Clinton--

 

I has some storms also earlier this afternoon, but no lightning or thunder. Just damaging winds and very hvy rain briefly. Lasted just a couple of minutes. It was wild though seeing that headline for this late in the season.

[Niko]

NOAA:

.WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph into  the evening.* WHERE...Shiawassee, Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Livingston,  Oakland, and Macomb counties.* WHEN...Until 9 PM EST this evening.* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could damage unsecured objects. Tree  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

[westMJim]

At this time reports indicate that just under 7000 locations are without power at this time in the Grand Rapids and winds gust of up to 55 MPH 

[St Paul Storm]

12z Euro surf loop didn't look too impressive. How is it for yby?

I think the Euro showed around 6” on the 12z. Down from around 8-9” on the 0z. Seem to be riding the line here. Could get a big snow dump, or it could be a rainy mess. But, at least there’s something to watch.

[Niko]

Attm, temps are dropping. Winds are continuing to be fierce. Also, getting a quick shower.