Hawkeye Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 Any snow falling in Cedar Rapids? Radar looked decent there for awhile. It’s very light here in north Liberty Barely a dusting here. Models all had this snow band crapping out as it moved south into ec/se Iowa and they were right. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 I'm chilled looking at this 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 Nice surprise today! Just measured 1.8" of snow on the deck and patio table. Looks to be about the same on the grass. Roads had just enough to make em icy. Temp is down to 23. Everything is crusty. What a start to the season! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 0z GFS still has no snow with the arctic front but looks like it still has some sort of system next Thursday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 Waking up this morning to a cold outside temp of 27F with a WC 14F along with blustery winds out of the N 17 mph G 24 mph and a light dusting of powder. This the type of morning that smacks you in the face by Ol' Man Winter. I have to help a friend of mine later this afternoon outside for a couple hours so you bet I'll be dressing in layers. Nice to see the clipper from yesterday perform quite well with numerous reports across S MN/S WI in the 2-5" range. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 Last night's 00z Euro still showing the Veteran's Day system as a wave of LP forms along the Arctic frontal boundary and lifts up through the OHV. As Clinton said, the ICON was the first model to jump on this idea and still is showing run to run consistency. 00z Euro snowfall maps... The Lehs signal on both the ICON/EURO is eye candy....I still think this one has potential to become something bigger and more widespread...let's see how future runs turn out. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 It's amazing what a snow cover will do and clear skies. Temps have crashed into the single digits in S MN/S WI from a fresh snow cover and some places are approaching 0F! Impressive! Rochester, Rochester International Airport (KRST) Lat: 43.9°NLon: 92.49°WElev: 1316ft.Fair2°F-17°C Current conditions at Pipestone Municipal Airport (KPQN)Lat: 43.99°NLon: 96.3°WElev: 1732ft.Fair0°F-18°C 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 The JMA weeklies run today is impressive in many ways and I'll explain below. First off, the NW NAMER ridge is locked and loaded through the next 4 weeks which basically keeps the upper level flow in a favorable pattern to keep flooding the lower 48 with cold air. Second, if you take a look at the upward motion near Australia from Weeks 2-4 it is showing sinking air which suggests MJO Phases of 8/1. Remember back in the middle of Sept we saw the MJO basically crawl out of phases 8/1 that lead into October??? It looks to me like this MJO pattern is cycling on its 60-day cycle and it would be right on schedule to enter into Phase 8 next week. Here are the Week 2 maps... Week 3-4....notice the sinking air over Australia and rising air in the West/Central PAC...about as good of a pattern for the U.S. to be socked in a winter pattern. Not to mention, the strong signal for the Aleutian Low to control the flow across the N PAC. Are we going to run the table???? JMA says....what pullback??? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 Canadian is a fun model to look at. Same system here. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 Models backing off on the longevity and severity of the arctic air for early next week. Will that pave the way for potential storminess? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 Yeah the snowcover is doing its job! My car read out got down to 6° on my way into work! My phone said 9°. The roads were a sheet of ice. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 My truck said 9 degrees when I came to school at 6:45 AM. Pretty amazing as we have no snow cover. Our record low for the date is 1. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northland09 Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 When I went outside I thought it was quite chilly out this morning...wasn't expecting it to be only 7 F though! They forecasted last night to drop down to 14F. Our lows have been consistently at least 5 degrees below what's being forecasted, but that could be due to the fact that we are surrounded by swamp. If forecasted lows will be around 8-12F next Sunday/Monday/Tuesday, I wouldn't doubt that we'll be reaching close to 0, especially if the skies are clear. So weird to have to be dealing with this kind of cold when it's not late December/January. I need to finish putting my outdoor Christmas decorations up. The ground is already frozen through the first inch of soil at the very least. I haven't put a stake in the ground yet, so hoping I won't have to struggle too much. All we need is snow!!!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 Good morning! The ground is covered with snow for the first time this winter season here. I have just under one inch of snow on the ground. With partly cloudy skies the current temperature here at my house is 24° and that is the overnight low. Officially at GRR the low looks to be 27° Yesterday the H/L at Grand Rapids was 36/25 That high of 36 was the coldest maximum since 1967 when the high was only 32. For today the average H/L at Grand Rapids is 52/36 the record high is 69 in 1916 and the record low is 14 set in 1991. The record snow fall amount is 6.0” set in 1951. Last year the H/L was 43/37. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 The weenie band that was supposed to bring me flakes is currently centered over South Ontario (directly North of me) moving SE so there goes that. Now I'm just hoping for flurries so I can officially record my first flakes. 33.3*F. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 Here are some snow fall totals from west Michigan, yesterday and last night. Cloverville in Muskegon Co. reported 6.4″. Muskegon at the airport 6.2” Mt Pleasant 6.0” Howard City 5.0” Houghton Lake 3.3” Grattan 2.0” Comstock Park 1.5” here at my house 1” GRR .7” 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 Records are in jeopardy! Top 5 Coldest Max Temperatures for November 11th Des Moines - Forecast High 241) 24 - 19862) 25 - 19953) 27 - 18944) 28 - 19325) 29 - 1935 29 - 1968 Waterloo - Forecast High 221) 23 - 19862) 26 - 19953) 27 - 1932 27 - 19765) 30 - 1935 30 - 1996 Mason City - Forecast High 181) 21 - 19862) 24 - 19323) 25 - 19954) 26 - 1894 26 - 1935 26 - 2014 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 Temps dropping in North Tx. We're at 58*. Rain till afternoon. Then cloudyWe'll drop to 38* tonight. Monday the Norther blows in and we'll be seeing highs in the 30's. A little early for that freezer or us.I might add that lows Monday and Tuesday will be 28*. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 EuroHR only model really showing much attm. Gives me 3+ inches, most of which seems to be with the potential wave on Vet's Day 20191106 12zEuroHR h150 Snow totals.pngI'll take this (4-6") for mby. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 A blanket of snow outside coating my area and temps are 29F. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 First one for the GL's.. Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Marquette MI330 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2019MIZ006-085-071900-/O.UPG.KMQT.WW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-191108T0000Z//O.NEW.KMQT.WS.W.0014.191107T0830Z-191108T0600Z/Alger-Northern Schoolcraft-Including the cities of Grand Marais, Munising, and Seney330 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2019...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...* WHAT...Moderate lake effect snow continues this morning,becoming heavy by mid-morning and lingering into the eveninghours. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches areexpected east of Beaver Lake to Cusino Lake to Germfask. Areasacross western Alger and northwest Schoolcraft counties will seean additional 7 to 12 inches of snow. Locally higher amountsare possible where stronger lake effect snow bands persist. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 Euro tends to be cold biased, but not this much. A low of FIVE next Wednesday morning here. Also continues to show the storm for Vets day that nobody else is showing. Sorry it took so long to edit this post, my internet went down in the middle of me editing it. 5 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 Accumulating snow possible on Monday...... NOAA: Right entrance jet streak dynamicsand passage of the cold front to fuel snow chances throughoutMonday. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 Euro tends to be cold biased, but not this much. A low of FIVE next Wednesday morning here. Euro 10.png Also continues to show the storm for Vets day that nobody else is showing. Euro 11.png Sorry it took so long to edit this post, my internet went down in the middle of me editing it.Looks fantastic!! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 If we see positive trends today, I might want to fire up a storm thread for the Veteran's Day system... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 Euro tends to be cold biased, but not this much. A low of FIVE next Wednesday morning here. Euro 10.png Also continues to show the storm for Vets day that nobody else is showing. Euro 11.png Sorry it took so long to edit this post, my internet went down in the middle of me editing it.Have you looked at the EPS snow mean??? How does that look over the past couple runs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 First flake of the season in Holland: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 Have you looked at the EPS snow mean??? How does that look over the past couple runs?The members vary greatly. Most of them show at least SOMETHING. Some are just a light wave while some show a legit storm similar to Euro. The OP Euro is more bullish than any of the EPS members. EPS snow mean is about 2.5" here with more over the mitt. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 12z ICON still showing the Veteran's Day storm and starting to see some buckling in the trough right over the GL's where the Long Term Long Wave Trough has been showing up time and time again. Storms have been intensifying throughout this region a lot this Autumn. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 I have a real good shot next week w temps falling into the single digits for lows. Extremely cold air and record cold possible. If there is snow otg, temps will fall to extreme levels for this time of the year. IIRC, the coldest is 0F set back in 1880. https://www.weather.gov/dtx/DTW_Nov_rec 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 Don't you guys think that this Fall to Winter jog is throwing many models and forecasters off balance? We are, after all, at GSM and the big cool down is underway. Many don't accept this and are soldiering on. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 12z ICON still showing the Veteran's Day storm and starting to see some buckling in the trough right over the GL's where the Long Term Long Wave Trough has been showing up time and time again. Storms have been intensifying throughout this region a lot this Autumn.It will be snowing sideways as that artic front pushes through. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 12z ICON snowfall, would really enhance the cold. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 12z ICON snowfall, would really enhance the cold.Dare I say 4-6"+ for Niko's Pl??!! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 The weenie band that was supposed to bring me flakes is currently centered over South Ontario (directly North of me) moving SE so there goes that. Now I'm just hoping for flurries so I can officially record my first flakes. 33.3*F. Actually scored a fluffy 0.2" here after all, mostly on roof tops and cars. Just patches on the ground with temps only dropping to freezing as the snow swept thru. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 12z ICON snowfall, would really enhance the cold.Man I'd take that 3" all day and run with it! Would be fun to see especially with the wind and cold. It's like January! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 I don't think it's been discussed but there is an interesting feature that has been popping up just offshore of So Cal and near the Baja. Even through its been bone dry in this region, there is a trough like feature that continuously spins in this area and at times already this month since the 1st, it has "spit" off energy that merges into the flow over our southern tier of the Sub. Could this be the LRC's STJ implication??? In the heart of winter when the jet is the strongest, this could imply an energized STJ. You can see that this feature is aiding in the heavy precip across the southern tier of the U.S. today. On Nov 1st... Nov 3rd... Nov 6th.... Nov 9th... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 It will be snowing sideways as that artic front pushes through.Hopefully we will both have a "powder day"....I love arctic fronts and snow....esp if the lake becomes my friend this go around... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 The GFS performance at the roughly 5 day mark and beyond so far this season has appeared to be atrocious. It's one thing if it has a storm and varies on strength and placement, but this is now the 2nd potential storm in a couple weeks that it shows no storm at all. It ended up being way wrong with the Halloween storm until it got inside of 4-5 days. I would be surprised if the Euro was the model that is completely wrong with the Monday system that is showing up. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 7, 2019 Report Share Posted November 7, 2019 I don't think it's been discussed but there is an interesting feature that has been popping up just offshore of So Cal and near the Baja. Even through its been bone dry in this region, there is a trough like feature that continuously spins in this area and at times already this month since the 1st, it has "spit" off energy that merges into the flow over our southern tier of the Sub. Could this be the LRC's STJ implication??? In the heart of winter when the jet is the strongest, this could imply an energized STJ. You can see that this feature is aiding in the heavy precip across the southern tier of the U.S. today. On Nov 1st... Nov 3rd... Nov 6th.... Nov 9th... That could set up some icy days across the central and southern plains esp in Jan and Feb. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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