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November 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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This is an "everything must go right" scenario, and that JMA run did just that. Timing is more crucial imho than with the typical set-up. Nonetheless, as you've noted, storms have been moist, and generally get amped around the GL's so far, thus this season's trends would lean in favor. Even that frontal wave the other evening amped at the last minute, dishing out 6+ in numerous locales. 

 

Nice look from that JMA run. Good starting position for the Surf Low

 

attachicon.gif20191107 12z JMA MSLP & hgt anoms.png

 

attachicon.gif20191107 12z jma_T850_us_fh96-168.gif

 

 

EDIT - A snow map off that run should be eye candy over my way. Do they have that on another site??

Sweet! :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Good Luck amigo!  I'll say it again, Detroit has ALWAYS done well in a pattern with over-whelming cold. (should extend to our new KTOL partner as well)

Thank you sir!

 

Still early in the game though. A lot of things can go wrong w this potential snowstorm for SEMI. :unsure:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12z Euro....ehh, trying hard but no cigar....I'll take 2-3" plus a lake plume on the backside any day of the week in early Nov though...

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

Nice Lehs signal...followed by true Lake Effect on the back side riding down the lake....

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

 

 

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

 

 

Nice signal for convergence over the western shores of LM...this is nice to see at this range and quite intriguing to be honest...

 

sfcwind_mslp.us_mw.png

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Attm, its a sunny and crisp afternoon w temps in the low 30s.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12z Euro....ehh, trying hard but no cigar....I'll take 2-3" plus a lake plume on the backside any day of the week in early Nov though...

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

Nice Lehs signal...followed by true Lake Effect on the back side riding down the lake....

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

 

 

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

 

 

Nice signal for convergence over the western shores of LM...this is nice to see at this range and quite intriguing to be honest...

 

sfcwind_mslp.us_mw.png

Tom, nothing wrong with nickels and dimes in November! That’s bonus money before you guys down there really rake in the heart of winter.

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Tom, nothing wrong with nickels and dimes in November! That’s bonus money before you guys down there really rake in the heart of winter.

That’s the way I’m looking at it. If we can score a couple inches before the arctic air hits it would be alright in my book. On top of that, it’ll help with potential records for daytime highs and lows.

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That’s the way I’m looking at it. If we can score a couple inches before the arctic air hits it would be alright in my book. On top of that, it’ll help with potential records for daytime highs and lows.

For sure. We likely won’t be setting any records up here because of bare ground. At least you have an opportunity.

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Attm, partly cloudy and cold w temps at 32F.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Less the an inch of moisture in 35 days...next 16 days on the GFS..much warmer and zero on moisture for KC.

 

Last October we had 11 inches of moisture and multiple storms, LRC called for a wet winter with well above average snow as it claimed the wet pattern would cycle through. It did! So, if the pattern is this dry in the developing stages of the new LRC, the forecast for winter in KC has to be for below average moisture.

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Currently at 22F under clear skies. Falling into the teens tanite.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently at 22F under clear skies. Falling into the teens tanite.

 

I pass numerous different sized ponds along 94. Was quite surprised this afternoon to see ALL totally covered in ice. Hit 19F here this morning. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Wow, some nice totals from my old stomping grounds in NWMI

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1107 AM EST FRI NOV 8 2019

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 2 SW FIFE LAKE 44.55N 85.38W
11/08/2019 E16.0 INCH GRAND TRAVERSE MI BROADCAST MEDIA

24 HR TOTAL THROUGH 7 AM. REPORT RELAYED BY
LOCAL MEDIA.

0800 AM SNOW 1 ESE MANCELONA 44.90N 85.05W
11/08/2019 M12.1 INCH ANTRIM MI COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION MI-AT-6 MANCELONA 0.5 ESE.

0700 AM SNOW MANCELONA 44.90N 85.06W
11/08/2019 E12.0 INCH ANTRIM MI BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORT RELAYED BY MEDIA.

0800 AM SNOW 1 SE KALKASKA 44.73N 85.17W
11/08/2019 M10.7 INCH KALKASKA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

CO-OP OBSERVER STATION KLKM4 KALKASKA.

0600 AM SNOW 3 ENE KINGSLEY 44.60N 85.48W
11/08/2019 M9.7 INCH GRAND TRAVERSE MI COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION MI-GT-21 KINGSLEY 2.7 ENE.

0700 AM SNOW 1 NW FIFE LAKE 44.58N 85.37W
11/08/2019 M9.1 INCH GRAND TRAVERSE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

CO-OP OBSERVER STATION FLAM4 FIFE LAKE 2
WNW.

1053 PM SNOW 2 SW GREILICKVILLE 44.78N 85.68W
11/07/2019 M9.0 INCH LEELANAU MI BROADCAST MEDIA

12 HOUR TOTAL. 5 INCHES IN THE PAST 4 HOURS.
WPBN STUDIOS (NBC AFFILIATE).

0600 AM SNOW 1 E GRAWN 44.67N 85.67W
11/08/2019 M8.1 INCH GRAND TRAVERSE MI PUBLIC

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I pass numerous different sized ponds along 94. Was quite surprised this afternoon to see ALL totally covered in ice. Hit 19F here this morning. 

For sure. I doubt it was this cold last year in November. So far, I have seen ice in nearby ponds as well. Crazy weather this year.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The GFS is showing a lengthy backing-off of the cold after next week's arctic blast.  This run has 40s and 50s through the end of the run.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Euro showing a storm on the 18th, as the West Coast Ridge breaks down, lets see if this storm trends colder as artic air is going to be near by.

1574035200-iAmuzZks9CY.png

 

Iirc, the GFS was also showing a storm around that time-frame, but totally a warm GOMEX system bringing rain to the OHV. Then it looks like it wanted to follow-up with a colder storm the following week of Thanksgiving. Should be an interesting period to watch for sure. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Good Morning! At this time it is cloudy and the current temperature here at my house is now at 30° The low here at my house was 28 and it looks like the low at GRR was 29. Yesterday was one of the coldest Novembers 8th in Grand Rapids history with a H/L of 33/21 that 33 was the 6th coldest for the dated and that low of 21 was the 5th coldest for the date. For today the average H/L at Grand Rapids is 51/35 the record high is 73 set in 1931 and the record low is 16 set in 2003. The record snow fall amount is 4.0” way back in 1894. Last year the H/L was 37/27 and there was 1.3” of snow fall.

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Attm, partly cloudy skies and cold w temps at 34F.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The weather was perfect early this afternoon for collecting leaves (low 50s, light wind).  I was able to fill another several jumbo bags by raking up the yard directly under the oak tree.  The neighbor certainly doesn't mind as it saves her a bunch of work.  I have most of the leaves I need now.  I'll probably collect a few more bags in a week or so.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It was low 40s and quite breezy over this way but the sunshine was really nice so I worked with the wind direction and did a second round of leaf raking myself. Was a gorgeous fall afternoon. Pretty wild when a high that's 10F lower than avg feels like a balmy warm-up! 

 

GRR on the arctic wave temps:

 

.CLIMATE...

Issued at 310 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2019

The current forecast of high temperatures in the mid 20s on
Tuesday would break the daily record for coldest highs (or lowest
maximum temperature). The low temperature forecast for Tuesday and
Wednesday would come within a few degrees of breaking daily
records at some locations.

Record coldest high temperatures for November 12:
Grand Rapids... 27 (1920)
Muskegon....... 27 (1940)
Lansing........ 29 (1995)
Kalamazoo...... 28 (1920)
 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12Z Euro Control has quite the active period for precip in the 10-15 day period. Questionable  though on how much cold air can get involved for snow.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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12Z Euro Control has quite the active period for precip in the 10-15 day period. Questionable  though on how much cold air can get involved for snow.

 

Not sure about there, but my avg LOWS are still too warm for snowstorms, so NOT surprising, lol. I mean, let's be real folks, warm is still typical for most of our posters. For here, pretty much anything shovelable prior to Dec 10th I'd personally consider early. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Lets see if we get a refresher 1-2" by midweek period. Keeping an eye on it.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Lets see if we get a refresher 1-2" by midweek period. Keeping an eye on it.

 

GFS even has MORE on the 18th, after the supposed warm-up (which does make it questionable tbh, but still) 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GFS even has MORE on the 18th, after the supposed warm-up (which does make it questionable tbh, but still) 

Yep...I saw that. Fun times ahead continue amigo.

 

As for the warm-up....we will see how warm it gets, if at all. Tbh, my temps remain during that (supposed warm-up in the upper 30s to low 40s), so it remains to be seen. If that is the warm-up, then, I am still running BN :lol:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The -AO could also cause the clipper on the 18th to be stronger as well,

 

hahaha, I'm NOT getting any sleep/work/projects done this winter. I can see that now.. :lol:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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My highs on Tuesday only 20-25F and lows in the Single Digits. Now, we have to consider the snowpack otg Tuesday nite, so, subzero readings to near 0F (or 0-5F) not outta the question. Adjustments to these temps are coming, for sure.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Man is TT always so slow to load maps?? I prefer their interface personally, but had no idea Pivotal was so much faster.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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My highs on Tuesday only 20-25F and lows in the Single Digits. Now, we have to consider the snowpack otg Tuesday nite, so, subzero readings to near 0F (or 0-5F) not outta the question. Adjustments to these temps are coming, for sure.

 

As said, I'm not a fan of mega cold but we get along much better when I'm sitting on a nice snow pack 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Man is TT always so slow to load maps?? I prefer their interface personally, but had no idea Pivotal was so much faster.

The Canadian is really slow on TT. Much faster on Pivotal.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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