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wow this map looks awesome!! Epic December I can’t wait!!

 

psst. That maps only out to 11/29 fyi. December will be a whole different story altogether  ;)

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Came home for lunch and this buddy was hanging out enjoying the snow. He came right up to me to say hi. He knows he’s safe in the city limits that’s for sure.

Not sure if anyone has said it yet, but PivotalWeather has added a TON of new products for the ECMWF as well as 6hr intervals and regional maps. Gonna be *really* nice.   https://www.pivotalweather.co

Nebraska is a popular pass through for migration birds and just had over 100 geese go over head. Big changes up north must be occurring.

Posted Images

:D

 

Monster of a rainstorm for us, lol. Don't forget, this pattern cycles by hitting those west of us first, then works our way as it progresses. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Looks like we'll end up 2 or 3F deg's colder than yesterday for a high temp. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I am assuming we have that Greenland Block going.

 

I'm "hoping" we do. Kinda was thinking Tom would come back with the post he hinted at this morning.  :unsure:

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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It has been snowing lightly for the last hour.  We may get a bit of a break, followed by another patch of light snow.  The system ended up pretty weak.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Down our way, it's all over but the shouting. Warming up this coming week.

 

A5C6460E-AE82-4D59-9F84-E6E1331AFE64-294-00000017316748AE.jpg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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We didn't just break or shatter a 108 year old record today, we scattered, smothered, and covered it.

 

 

 

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT THE TOLEDO EXPRESS AIRPORT BOTTOMED OUT AT 8
DEGREES AT 632 AM EST, WHICH BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW OF 13
DEGREES SET IN 1911.
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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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I wasn’t expecting to see any snow today but I’m currently getting some nice bursts of mod snow with big dendrites. It’s a nice and tranquil snow falling right now. Only about a fresh coating but the thing that stands out is, that it’s a snow on snow situation in mid Nov with a frozen ground. I haven’t seen that before.

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Based on what I expect next week, the ICON at 180hrs certainly has the right idea. It has the western trough and 2 pieces of energy.  The cut-off low should eventually phase with the PV and create one heck of a storm around Thanksgiving week.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_60.png

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_60.png

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0.3" of snow here today.

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Roads got pretty slick very quickly with the 1/2” of snow we got today. I saw the first ice fishermen of the year today on the small (83 acre) lake near my house. I sure wouldn’t trust that ice yet!

Someone already fell through the ice up in Cambridge. There’s absolutely no way anyone should be on any ice. There’s a good 4 months of ice time. No reason to rush it.

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Actually getting a few surprise flakes here as well. Don't see any accumulations happening, but it definitely sets a mood. 23.7°F.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Measured 0.1" on my deck this morning from yesterday's light snow before I hit the sack early last night.  I'm getting used to these cold days and waking up each morning with a snow cover.  Just a memorable stretch of weather these past few days.  It's not going to last so I'm enjoying every bit of it while its here bc I'm sure the snow will be gone by the weekend which is fine by me.  At that time, most of the leaves should be off the trees and I can do my final yard clean up and wait for nature to lay down the next swath of snow in our region...when will that be???   Well, let's take a look and dive into some LR ideas of where I see things playing out.

 

 

When the LRC was developing in October, I spotted and noted one of the missing links we have lacked over the past several years and that was the all important "Greenland Block".  This year, models have busted Bigly in the extended on blocking across eastern Canada/NE Canada/Greenland.  This has resulted in much cooler trends in the models in the extended over the past several weeks and the same thing keeps happening on the GEFS if you haven't noticed the past several days.  IMO, we are starting to see the beginnings of LRC cycle # 2 later next week and the Canadian/Greenland blocking which occurred back in early/mid October is showing up in the modeling for later next week, but especially during Thanksgiving when the fun and games kicks into high gear.  Rumors of storms???  

 

 

There are a couple things I want to point out and one of them is an important piece to the LRC puzzle.  Remember those maps I posted of the cut-off trough that kept hanging around the Baja/So Cal region in late October/early Nov??  The models continue to show this in the extended but now as we head deeper into the cold season, this part of the cycling pattern is likely to be the culprit towards an active STJ.  While it was very dry in October in the SW, things are going to get very wet down there and this is a great sign going forward.  

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_7.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_10.png

 

 

 

 

The storm that Clinton and I have been pondering about around the 21st/22nd may be the beginning of LRC cycle # 2 and the next storm following this one could be a large scale system that looks to cycle around Black Wednesday/Thanksgiving Day.  Yes, we may be dealing with a winter storm during the start of the Holiday season this year.  With major blocking already in place during Thanksgiving week, this sets the stage for a potential central CONUS winter storm across the heartland.  Still to early to say, but this is likely to be a cutter.  How hard it cuts is the million dollar question, but I'm almost certain we will be tracking a large storm around Thanksgiving.

 

 

If your wondering why the models are catching onto the blocking across the N Atlantic/Greenland, just feast your eyes where the significant warming at both 10mb/30mb is blossoming.  This is clearly the answer.

 

temp30anim.gif

 

 

temp10anim.gif

 

 

 

 

The 00z GEFS animation below....whoops!  Good bye are the warm anomalies....

 

 

 

 

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Much like Tom, I also picked up 0.1" overnight. 

 

Looks like today is the day the snow (at least most of it) goes bye bye. 29.8*F.

 

 

 

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
512 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-141245-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-
Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-
Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Port Clinton,
Fremont, Sandusky, Lorain, Cleveland, Mentor, Chardon, Jefferson,
Findlay, Tiffin, Norwalk, Medina, Akron, Ravenna, Warren,
Upper Sandusky, Bucyrus, Mansfield, Ashland, Wooster, Canton,
Youngstown, Marion, Mount Gilead, Millersburg, Mount Vernon,
Ashtabula, Erie, Edinboro, and Meadville
512 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019

...Untreated roads may be slick early this morning...

A coating of light snow overnight and early this morning has left
untreated roads snow covered and slick. Motorists should allow a
little extra time for their morning commute and be prepaired to
encounter slick roads, bridges and off-ramps.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Good Morning!  Yesterdays H/L of 25/15 was the 2nd coldest maximum and the 3rd coldest minimum in Grand Rapids recorded history. And the 3” of snow on the ground is the most snow on the ground for the date. At this time the November mean at Grand Rapids is 32.8 and that is a departure of -10.7. Here at my house there was just a trace of snow fall overnight and the temperature went up from 22 up to the current reading here of 28 with cloudy skies. For today the average H/L is 48/34. The record high is 68 in 1902 and the record low is 13 in 1969 the most snow fall was 4.5” in 1971. Last year the H/L was 35/25.

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Here is an interesting weather fact. While at Grand Rapids the average annual temperature has gone up in the last 30 years the average snow fall has also gone up as well. In the last 30 years the mean temperature at Grand Rapids is 49.0° and the 10 year average snow fall is 86.6”. The 20 year mean average temp is 49.4 and the snow fall average is 80.2” and in the last 30 years the average annual temperature at Grand Rapids is 49.0° and the snow fall average over the last 30 years is 78.4” So at least at Grand Rapids, Michigan over the last 30 years the mean annual temperature an the average seasonal snow fall has gone up.

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Looking at my forecast temps down the road, the warm-up that was expected is GONE! Also, looks stormy down the road. Question now is, will I be adding to this record snowfall that I received this month??!! Will the storm track continue to be an app-runner? Most importantly, I am keeping an eye on "The Greenland Block." Toms post above mentioned that the GB will be holding firm. Fun times ahead for sure here in SEMI.

 

tumblr_okvp1p7CPG1u501aoo1_250.gif

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Looking at my forecast temps down the road, the warm-up that was expected is GONE! Also, looks stormy down the road. Question now is, will I be adding to this record snowfall that I received this month??!! Will the storm track continue to be an app-runner? Most importantly, I am keeping an eye on "The Greenland Block." Toms post above mentioned that the GB will be holding firm. Fun times ahead for sure here in SEMI.

 

tumblr_okvp1p7CPG1u501aoo1_250.gif

 

Not sure if that T-Day storm trends so suppressed as to target SMI, but I don't think we get totally blanked the next 16 days either. City of Marshall has gotten their downtown holiday lights up (mostly) even earlier than I remember so that we have them during this very early snow OTG. It's really like time fast-forwarded a full month. Also see more peeps with Christmas lights on this morning. Guess the snow's helping 'em get in the spirit.  ;)

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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GEFS Temp anom trend.gif

 

That's just incredibly bad model flipping. There are those elsewhere posting that our american models are programmed to always lean warm the further out you go, and it's obviously true. Whether you subscribe to any theory on just why that is, the performance results make it/them pretty much useless. I know JB frequently shows how horribly wrong the CFS has been at forecasting temps for this month. 

 

Per the BSR, this "should" indicate something of interest in the lwr OHV if I'm not mistaken. It grabbed my eye for sure.

 

20191114 0z ICON surf at h180.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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attachicon.gifGEFS Temp anom trend.gif

 

That's just incredibly bad model flipping. There are those elsewhere posting that our american models are programmed to always lean warm the further out you go, and it's obviously true. Whether you subscribe to any theory on just why that is, the performance results make it/them pretty much useless. I know JB frequently shows how horribly wrong the CFS has been at forecasting temps for this month. 

 

Per the BSR, this "should" indicate something of interest in the lwr OHV if I'm not mistaken. It grabbed my eye for sure.

 

attachicon.gif20191114 0z ICON surf at h180.PNG

The EPS has an evern wamrmer bias of late, the GEFS are colder Week 2 compared to the EPS so it ain't only the American models.  IMO, I think its just the fact that the models are "missing" the Greenland Block.

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What do you think about Gary’s comments today in his blog? He’s saying the LRC cycle may be longer than last years.

I read that, I guess we will have to see how next week goes.  I believe he had last years cycle at 43 days.  But to me that western trough and Greenland block are a big signal to what happened in early October.

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Gary claims there is no way to forecast long range without the LRC fully setting up. He says any forecast out before it sets up is a pure guess. So, Tom, you apparently are a great guesser.

 

I told him I beg to differ as you called this cold fall way back in Sept. You also called for early snows in the Plains and Midwest. You also called for the Veteran Day storm well in advance. Again, you are a great guesser!!! LOL

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Gary claims there is no way to forecast long range without the LRC fully setting up. He says any forecast out before it sets up is a pure guess. So, Tom, you apparently are a great guesser.

 

I told him I beg to differ as you called this cold fall way back in Sept. You also called for early snows in the Plains and Midwest. You also called for the Veteran Day storm well in advance. Again, you are a great guesser!!! LOL

Not exactly, before I know what the length of the LRC is, I use other methods for LR forecast/prediction. I’m not a great guesser...there is skill and thoughtfulness behind the madness!

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Gary, using the LRC, had a great year of accurate forecasts in 2019, it was rather impressive at times.

 

With regards to those accurate forecasts, he constantly mentioned we will have a wet winter, spring, and summer due to how the first cycle started. In KC, we had multiple storms in the first 50 days of the LRC and precip. totals were 8-13 inches across the KC area. So, he said because of that, he was forecasting a very wet year. He was right!

 

Now, in the first 35-40 days of this LRC, many areas of KC are very dry and we have had about 20 percent of normal.

 

The forecast, based off of last year’s reasoning should show a dry/cold winter, maybe an average spring with the fronts running into better moisture and once the jet stream retreats back to the north in the summer, the ridge should put KC into a drought next summer.

 

If you use the same reasoning as to why last year was wet(because 1st cycle was wet) then you should use the same reasoning this year and that is the first cycle was dry, no big, wide spread storms in KC, just scraps. If the pattern is cycling, shouldn’t we see the same results moving forward??

 

Thoughts??

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Tom, I know! I was saying what Gary thinks. I know it’s not guessing, you are great at predicting pattern shifts and you do it all the time, even before the pattern sets up.

 

BTW, how do I get your comment I’m responding too to be right above me. Not sure how to do that.

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Tom, I know! I was saying what Gary thinks. I know it’s not guessing, you are great at predicting pattern shifts and you do it all the time, even before the pattern sets up.

 

BTW, how do I get your comment I’m responding too to be right above me. Not sure how to do that.

Use the quote button at the bottom of the post you want to respond too.
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Gary, using the LRC, had a great year of accurate forecasts in 2019, it was rather impressive at times.

 

With regards to those accurate forecasts, he constantly mentioned we will have a wet winter, spring, and summer due to how the first cycle started. In KC, we had multiple storms in the first 50 days of the LRC and precip. totals were 8-13 inches across the KC area. So, he said because of that, he was forecasting a very wet year. He was right!

 

Now, in the first 35-40 days of this LRC, many areas of KC are very dry and we have had about 20 percent of normal.

 

The forecast, based off of last year’s reasoning should show a dry/cold winter, maybe an average spring with the fronts running into better moisture and once the jet stream retreats back to the north in the summer, the ridge should put KC into a drought next summer.

 

If you use the same reasoning as to why last year was wet(because 1st cycle was wet) then you should use the same reasoning this year and that is the first cycle was dry, no big, wide spread storms in KC, just scraps. If the pattern is cycling, shouldn’t we see the same results moving forward??

 

Thoughts??

You have to watch for blocking as being a big wild card this year in future cycles. There’s more to it than just using the front 35-40 days as guidance to suggest it will be dry bc the storms that KC missed in the 1st cycle, may not miss you in cycles 2-4. Follow me? As the jet strengthens seasonally, the KC area, IMO, is in a very good spot this year. Lets look what happens next week when big time blocking sets up and the storm track is suppressed. Should get interesting in the Plains.

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Very interesting forecast shaping up here in SEMI for Thanksgiving Day. Looks like that GB will be taking shape and now models are starting to see it. My forecast has snow from the 25th to the 29th. I am eyeing more this storm than the one on the 19-21st. I think this November might go down as one of the snowiest eva. We will see. Fun times ahead! Also, it stays cold and way BN throughout the extended. Gotta luv this pattern. Lots of potential.

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You have to watch for blocking as being a big wild card this year in future cycles. There’s more to it than just using the front 35-40 days as guidance to suggest it will be dry bc the storms that KC missed in the 1st cycle, may not miss you in cycles 2-4. Follow me? As the jet strengthens seasonally, the KC area, IMO, is in a very good spot this year. Lets look what happens next week when big time blocking sets up and the storm track is suppressed. Should get interesting in the Plains.

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Tom, yes, I follow that. I get all the blocking, suppressing talk.

 

But...if blocking didn’t occur during the first cycle on a handful of storms, how would one forecast it accurately in future cycles??

 

Gary often says, “look at where this storm is now bloggers, nobody should be surprised as this same storm rolled through last cycle. The LRC predicted it perfectly!” When a predicted storm misses KC, he will blame it on blocking, or this, or that.

 

My argument, yes the LRC can predict a time frame to expect a certain type of storm in the plains or Midwest, but as far as location and precip. type, which Gary claims he can do, that too me is impossible.

 

Case and point:

 

Last year Gary called the 9 inches of snow in St Louis earlier in cycle two, the “St.louis snowstorm part of the pattern”. When the blizzard hit north central KS up to Omaha in early Feb, he claimed that the LRC nailed this storm!

 

The storm track was 800 miles further NW then it was in the previous cycle. It was 50 degrees in Omaha the day of the big snow storm in St. Louis, when the blizzard hit in the future cycle, obviously Omaha was in the 20’s, but St.Louis was in the 50’s and 60’s this go around.

 

How can this be predicted using the LRC? It can’t, right? How were the folks in Omaha prepared for a blizzard using the LRC months out? Remember, Gary claims he knows what the weather will be like in 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, 200 days into the future.

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