Jump to content

November 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

Individual GFS op runs and it's ensembles are showing what may lead to the early SSW event sometime in Dec.  On 11/22, the beginnings of this strong warming across Siberia begins and significantly disrupts the PV and displaces it off the Pole.  The only worry I have here is, a big IF, this warming continues to track east into North America.  If it does, then December will likely end up warmer than what the models are showing.  If not, and it maintains its position over by the Bearing Sea and points west into Siberia, then we are in business for Winter conditions to keep on rolling. 

 

Notice the CFS models warming at 10mb (Dec map below) right in the same region the GFS is predicting the significant warming to begin later this month.  The consistency between the models leads me to believe we won't have the warming continue east into North America unlike years past which delayed Winter in December.

 

 

 

cfs-mon_01_Tz10_nhem_1.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good Morning!  The official H/L here at Grand Rapids yesterday was 43/35 the sun came out at times and it was a rather nice November day. The overnight low at here at my house was 38 and it was 39 at the airport. Here in the GR area we do not look to get a lot of snow out of this cold shot as we are in the wrong location and the wind will be out or the wrong direction. But one has to remember the average H/L for today is now 50/35 so snow is not a big item this early in the season, just think beach days in early May (nice to have but will not last long) The record high for today is 67 in 1999 and the record low is 16 in 1957. The record snow fall for today happened just last year with 3.8” the H/L last year was 35/23.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

My temps are dropping quickly w dp at 32F. Temp at 34F. Wind outta the N at a breezy 14 mph.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even all the way down to McAllen, TX, it has a forecast high of only 42F on Tuesday!

We're braced for it. Gusts to 50 mph tomorrow and a low of 35*

 

McAllen will get a real surprise! Far too early for this.

  • Like 2

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't trust GFS, but we haven't had a clipper yet so who knows. Maybe it's onto something. I'd love an extra 2".

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From MKX Twitter:

 

“This is officially the snowiest start to winter at both Milwaukee and Madison by virtue of number of days with measurable snowfall to start off the winter season. - For Milwaukee this is the 6th day with measurable snowfall. The old record was 5 in 1925 and 1896 - For Madison this is the 7th day with measurable snowfall. The old record was 6 set in 1990 and 1925.“

 

Nice start to the season!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tom, What ya think is this the beginning of cycle 2?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_36.png

 

 

Starting to look like it...after looking at the model runs last night in more depth, it certainly looks like the SER pops around the 21st/22nd which would fit right into the pattern in early October.  The also notable changes I'm seeing in the LR is the fact that the EPO breaks down a bit which will allow for the "inside runners" to come down the western NAMER coast line as the active pattern should ignite into a SW Flow.  We should also look for more blocking into NE Canada/Greenland by Thanksgiving week.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Starting to look like it...after looking at the model runs last night in more depth, it certainly looks like the SER pops around the 21st/22nd which would fit right into the pattern in early October.  The also notable changes I'm seeing in the LR is the fact that the EPO breaks down a bit which will allow for the "inside runners" to come down the western NAMER coast line as the active pattern should ignite into a SW Flow.  We should also look for more blocking into NE Canada/Greenland by Thanksgiving week.

So if my math is right are we looking at about a 46 or 47 day cycle?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So if my math is right are we looking at about a 46 or 47 day cycle?

Yup, that's what I'm thinking....the hard cutter showing up on both the Euro/GFS around the 20th looks real similar to the Oct 5th storm.  Don't you find it fun trying to pin down the LRC using your skills???  It's fascinating how nature shows cycles in weather and as well as in other aspects of our lives.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

My forecast for Weds nite into Thurs wants to give a snow refresher (light accumulations)..maybe 1-2". Wow.

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The writing is on the wall based off the 30mb animation below that the beginnings to the SW flow pattern right before the start of Thanksgiving week is clearly being advertised.  My LR call of a stormy Thanksgiving week is looking like its going to have merit.  This pattern is freakin' amazing.  The warm ups that were being advertised are short-lived, in fact, my 10-day is now showing all days BN through the extended.  It's very reminiscent to the '13/'14 season where "warm ups" were short lived and storm induced from hard cutters or clippers that tracked north of the area.

 

 

 

temp30anim.gif

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yup, that's what I'm thinking....the hard cutter showing up on both the Euro/GFS around the 20th looks real similar to the Oct 5th storm.  Don't you find it fun trying to pin down the LRC using your skills???  It's fascinating how nature shows cycles in weather and as well as in other aspects of our lives.

I love it, I have a whole notebook full of notes, printed pages and so on.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I love it, I have a whole notebook full of notes, printed pages and so on.

:lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nighttime lows tomorrow nite will be frigid! W ton of snow cover and clear skies, temps are expected to bottom out between 0-5F. Record cold expected.

  • Like 3

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I love it, I have a whole notebook full of notes, printed pages and so on.

Likewise, I have about 4 pages on a smaller notebook...keep that book close to ya bc it will likely be filled with historical notes when we look back at this season.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

At this time light to moderated snow is falling here at my house. There is just under 3” on the ground here (2.8”) less on the driveway and the road. The current temperature here is 28 and it is now 26 at the airport.  The wind is not a factor at this time. Yesterday the H/L at Grand Rapids was 42/32. And The mean temp at GRR is now 35.9 and that is a departure of -8.2° For today the average H/L is 50/35° The record high for today is 73 set in 1909 and the record low is 18 in 1987. The record snow fall is 5.8” in 1995. The record coldest maximum is 30 in 1950. So far the high today looks to be 31 and it that holds it today will be the 2nd coldest maximum tied with a 31 is 1894. For tomorrow the coldest maximum is 27 set in 1920 and 1933.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

One of the best weather quirks of my location is the possibility of early season LES before Lake of the Woods freezes up.  It's snowing pretty decently as I write this (0.5 mile visibility).

I remember the first time I even learned this was possible was November 2008 when 6" of LES fell in one day, the NWS even issued a WWA for it.       

 

From the current Grand Forks Forecast Disscussion:

 

Impacts for the short term will be from arctic SFC high pressure
which has settled over the region. Single digits above and below
zero in areas where clouds have cleared combined with 5 to 15mph
winds to produce wind chills this morning as cold as minus 20
across the north. In the south clouds are lingering with temps
holding around 10 keeping wind chills around 0. Snow continues
down stream of the Lake of the Woods near Baudette
and will
continue to persist until winds weaken late this afternoon as SFC
high pressure moves closer albeit passing south of the FA.
Additional accumulation of an inch or two is possible. Also
expecting some mid day cumulus to form with flurries as temps
struggle to rise to highs in the upper single digits and low
teens.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just took another snow fall reading with my high tech snow measuring took (a yard stick) and I am now have 3.3” of snow on my snow board. Not sure what GRR will end up with but here are the top 5 snowiest days for November 11th 1. 5.8” in 1995 2. 3.5” in 1950 3. 2.4” in 1997 4. 2.3” in 1933 and 1.9” in 1932. For anyone who thinks that a snow fall on November 11th leads to a snowy season will think again. At Grand Rapids the total snow fall for the above winter seasons. 1995/96 79.1”f with November being the snowiest month with 20.8” 1950/51 81..5” 1997/98 59.8” 1933/34 just 38.1” and 1932/33 will just 43.6” The latest 30 year average at Grand Rapids is 77.5”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My forecast for Weds nite into Thurs wants to give a snow refresher (light accumulations)..maybe 1-2". Wow.

 

Yeah, even GRR mentioned 1-3"  ;)

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just took another snow fall reading with my high tech snow measuring took (a yard stick) and I am now have 3.3” of snow on my snow board. Not sure what GRR will end up with but here are the top 5 snowiest days for November 11th 1. 5.8” in 1995 2. 3.5” in 1950 3. 2.4” in 1997 4. 2.3” in 1933 and 1.9” in 1932. For anyone who thinks that a snow fall on November 11th leads to a snowy season will think again. At Grand Rapids the total snow fall for the above winter seasons. 1995/96 79.1”f with November being the snowiest month with 20.8” 1950/51 81..5” 1997/98 59.8” 1933/34 just 38.1” and 1932/33 will just 43.6” The latest 30 year average at Grand Rapids is 77.5”

 

You can toss those low totals seasons from the "low snow era" of the 30s & 40s. We've been in a high-moisture era for quite some time now (15 yrs or more?) due to the warm globe causing an abundance of water vapor in the atmosphere. Ofc, we still need a favorable pattern to get good snows, but that's looking better than ever as Tom has noted above. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, even GRR mentioned 1-3"  ;)

Also, not sure if you noticed, but this (brief warm-up) advertised keeps getting delay. Now my temps look a tad colder. Something to keep in mind of that this cold air we are in may be relentless to break. This  reminds me of 2013-14 where they kept saying milder temps coming, but they neva did materialized at all. Idk, Flashbacks perhaps??!! :blink:

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Should be some record cold tonight!

 

Cedar Rapids cannot break its earliest sub-zero record, but tonight would be #2 if we can do it.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is our next system....

 

 

ClipperSnow.jpg?w=632

 

Cities such as Great Falls, Montana; Rapid City, South Dakota; Minneapolis; Milwaukee; Chicago; and Detroit are likely to get wintry precipitation midweek.

  • Like 3

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is our next system....

 

 

ClipperSnow.jpg?w=632

 

Cities such as Great Falls, Montana; Rapid City, South Dakota; Minneapolis; Milwaukee; Chicago; and Detroit are likely to get wintry precipitation midweek.

 

This be that hyper-active pattern I mentioned where the next hit is already lining up while the current one is in progress!  #wildtimes  

 

My theme song sound bite would be "Let the Good Times Roll.." by The Cars from you guessed it, 1978

 

Lyrics.PNG

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This be that hyper-active pattern I mentioned where the next hit is already lining up while the current one is in progress!  #wildtimes  

 

My theme song sound bite would be "Let the Good Times Roll.." by The Cars from you guessed it, 1978

 

attachicon.gifLyrics.PNG

Flashbacks of 2013-14. Could this mean we are heading there......??!! Feels n looks like it amigo!

 

Also, per NOAA:

Wednesday will see a shortwave swing through the Great Lakes

bringing a weaker push of cold air and another shot at some

accumulating snowfall. High temperatures in the 20s will hold for

Wednesday with snowfall arriving later in the day and continuing

overnight.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...