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November 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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What a difference than last years pattern when we had to deal with cutter after cutter that went west of our region.  I think the GL's region will do quite well this year and its off to a rocket start.  How much has your snow settled???  My snow pack is down to about 2.5" and I think it'll be gone by the weekend.  Most of my trees are almost bare and the snow cover looks ugly now with all the leaves blowing on top of it.  This isn't what I would typically like to say, but I actually would like it to melt so that I can do a final clean up!   B)

Major difference in the pattern this year and also I don't think I have seen a November this cold and snowy b4. So many records broken in just 1 week, which makes it remarkable.

 

So far, I have lost 3.7"from 12.3", which leaves me w 8.6" otg.

 

Tbh, I am ready for my next major snowstorm. As you said, this snow w the leaves now on top of is getting old. Time for some new snow. I am eyeing Thanksgiving Day and also early December. Also, GB should suppressed these storms in future runs and benefit us.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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6z GFS has a nice storm Thanksgiving weekend, hopefully it will be colder.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_61.png

 

It's shaping up to be a cold and stormy Thanksgiving week...just need the pieces to come together for a nice storm or 2 to track.  The 11/21-11/22 system is looking more like a west/east track now with a blocking HP across the Upper MW.  Although, it is lacking cold air but this may trend better given how systems have evolved this season.  Maybe an appetizer before the big Thanksgiving holiday???

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6z GFS has a nice storm Thanksgiving weekend, hopefully it will be colder.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_61.png

Indeed, hopefully to be suppressed. :unsure:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, its clear and 28F. Looks like the weekend will feature colder temps as a CF pushes southward. Highs staying below freezing and lows in the teens.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NOAA:

 

Pacific jet streaming over the Rockies will then dip towards the
Gulf of Mexico and set up a longwave trough over the eastern half of
the CONUS for the first half of next week. General uncertainty in
precipitation chances during the first half of next week, but models
are picking up on a shortwave with a PV max dropping out of the
Canadian Rockies and into the Great Lakes. This may bring the next
shot at some light snow showers Tuesday night. Greater confidence
during the first half of next week will be continued below normal
temperatures as temperatures remain in the 30s with high temperatures.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It's shaping up to be a cold and stormy Thanksgiving week...just need the pieces to come together for a nice storm or 2 to track.  The 11/21-11/22 system is looking more like a west/east track now with a blocking HP across the Upper MW.  Although, it is lacking cold air but this may trend better given how systems have evolved this season.  Maybe an appetizer before the big Thanksgiving holiday???

I think I jumped the gun a little on the start of cycle 2 being around the 21st/22nd.  Things are not lining up that way, so it does loo like a longer cycle this year.  I would be expecting a cutter similar to the storm Thanksgiving weekend, but with the models being so wonky in the long range we may not know until a couple days before.  However on the bright side nothing wrong with having even more wet storms in each cycle it's gonna be a fun year.

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Mid month summery. At the half way point one can say this November first half has been cold.  At this time the mean temperature at GRR is 32.4° (-10.9°) if this were to hold this would be the 5th coldest November at Grand Rapids in recorded history.  The warmest it has been so far is just 52 on the 4th and if that holds that would tie last year for the coldest maximum in any November. The low so far this is month is 15 on the 13th and so far, there has been 6.5” of snow fall.

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Welcome to the start of deer season 2019. The current temperature here at my house is 32 and there is still 2” of snow on the ground.  Yesterday the official H/L at GRR was 32/24 and there was a trace of snow fall. For today the average H/L is 48/33. The record high is 68 in 1990 the record low is 10 in 1933. The record snow fall is 4.1” in 1969. Last year the H/L was 31/25 and there was 3.1” of snow fall.

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Both my parents/grandparents were from Detroit proper so I grew up visiting many relatives in the Motor City all the time. The region has just experienced an incredible stretch of early onset winter. Here's a comprehensive list of NEW milestones courtesy of MichSnowFreak's posting on Amwx. He's the official snow measurement guy for DTW/NWS. He's the guy that made all the measurements 6 yrs ago that led to the new all-time seasonal total for Detroit, edging out 1880-81. He also posts regularly on the SMI site out of Battle Creek, but that's down for about a week now. This guy loves his stats!

 

 

November 11th: Record snowfall of 8.5" ***largest calendar day snowfall on record for November***

 

November 11/12th: Largest November snowstorm on record, 9.2"

 

November 12th: Record low maximum of 25F

November 12th: Record low of 13F

November 12th: Record snow depth of 9"

 

November 13th: Record low of 7F ***first single digit low in November since 9F on Nov 21, 1969*** ***coldest Nov temp since 7F on Nov 24, 1950***

***there has not been a colder Nov temp since 4F on Nov 30, 1929, or 90 years ago!***

November 13th: The 7F is the earliest to hit single digits on record (old record Nov 16, 1933)

November 13th: Record snow depth of 7"

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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From the NWS KC.

The welcome return to normal temperature for middle Nov return today and continue through the weekend. This after the first two weeks on Nov have averaged 8.9 degrees below normal and was the 8th coldest on record (132 years). Enjoy!

5:40 AM - 15 Nov 2019
More

 

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This isn't what I would typically like to say, but I actually would like it to melt so that I can do a final clean up!   B)

 

Ditto.  There are oak leaves all over the snow that I'd like to bag up.  I also still have a few other yard/garden chores to do before winter moves in for good.  

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Finally broke the freezing mark just before noon in Marshall. But I see now my grid is only calling for a high of 33F. This morning it was 36F, yesterday it was 39F, two days ago it was low 40s  :lol:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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For those into wx history as well as the current happenings, Bill Deedler has an updated article (complete with surface maps) looking at the historical cold wave of November 1880 and how it compares with Nov's 2019 and 2014. Great story and I'm a general history buff so this stuff is double cool in my book. Can't help but continue my thoughts that 1880-81 may be a strong analog to this winter. 

 

https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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For those into wx history as well as the current happenings, Bill Deedler has an updated article (complete with surface maps) looking at the historical cold wave of November 1880 and how it compares with Nov's 2019 and 2014. Great story and I'm a general history buff so this stuff is double cool in my book. Can't help but continue my thoughts that 1880-81 may be a strong analog to this winter. 

 

https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/

 

Dayum, I just took a look at the data in Omaha for 1880-81. November through March were 10-12 degrees below average except for Dec (which was -7.6). These days it's a big accomplishment just to get one random well below average month. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Feels nice outside w temps at 35F under mostly cloudy skies. Still way BN.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Dayum, I just took a look at the data in Omaha for 1880-81. November through March were 10-12 degrees below average except for Dec (which was -7.6). These days it's a big accomplishment just to get one random well below average month. 

Care to share the data you looked at?? I love looking at historical data related to weather! 

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NOAA:

 

The 12Z NAM has trended more toward the ECWMF
solution which places more energy/amplification in the base of the
trough, leading to a stronger wave diving across the southeastern US
Sun night/Monday and thus limited forcing/moisture over Se Mi.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently it is 22F under clear skies. It will be very cold tanite w lows in the teens. Highs tomorrow barely getting outta the 20s for highs. Snow otg aint going nowhere.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I'd need to see a lot more from the GFS and other models before I jumped on this GFS run.  The northern stream is suddenly digging south on this run rather than sliding more east like previous runs.  The last two Euro runs have gone the other way.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The pattern depicted on most, if not all of the models starting around next week is a beauty. There will be tons of blocking to the north and also an active jet as well. If this holds, then, fun times ahead!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The official H/L at GRR yesterday was 39/28. The over night low both here at my house and at the airport was 22° and at this time it is 25 at both locations with mostly clear skies. The sun yesterday melted most of the snow here at my house and there is now just trace amounts of snow on the ground where the sun reached the snow cover. There is still snow on the north side and in the woods. For today the average H/L is 47/33. The record high is 68 way back in 1869 and the record low is 11 set in 1933. The biggest snow fall was 5.0” in 2005. Last year the H/L was 38/28. It sure is odd how this November and last November are so much alike.

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Another record in the books for Chitown...

 

 

NWS Chicago

Verified account @NWSChicago
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"Congrats" #Chicago-ans, you just lived through the coldest first half of November in the past 148 years! The average temperature from Nov. 1-15 was 31.2°, with the previous record cold (since 1871) first half of the month in 1991 (average temp of 31.4°). #ilwx

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Care to share the data you looked at?? I love looking at historical data related to weather! 

 

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=oax

 

NWS NOWDATA page has historical data for a lot of stations. Sorry for the late response, I only see notifications when I'm on desktop lol. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Terry Swails posted a blog about that very thing and his concerns. He showed the EURO going into phase 4 and maybe 5 or 6 from there...that would be a warm Dec. he said.

 

Let’s hope that EURO run is wrong!?

 

This happened in KC last year, some very early snows in fall and then nothing until Jan. 12th. We had big storms in Dec. but it was too warm. The whole country was warm..I remember all of us complaining about rain in Dec.

 

Per the so called cycling pattern, that warm phase never cycled back through as Mid Jan through April was very cold with only minor warm-ups.

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