Niko Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 What a difference than last years pattern when we had to deal with cutter after cutter that went west of our region. I think the GL's region will do quite well this year and its off to a rocket start. How much has your snow settled??? My snow pack is down to about 2.5" and I think it'll be gone by the weekend. Most of my trees are almost bare and the snow cover looks ugly now with all the leaves blowing on top of it. This isn't what I would typically like to say, but I actually would like it to melt so that I can do a final clean up! Major difference in the pattern this year and also I don't think I have seen a November this cold and snowy b4. So many records broken in just 1 week, which makes it remarkable. So far, I have lost 3.7"from 12.3", which leaves me w 8.6" otg. Tbh, I am ready for my next major snowstorm. As you said, this snow w the leaves now on top of is getting old. Time for some new snow. I am eyeing Thanksgiving Day and also early December. Also, GB should suppressed these storms in future runs and benefit us. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 6z GFS has a nice storm Thanksgiving weekend, hopefully it will be colder. It's shaping up to be a cold and stormy Thanksgiving week...just need the pieces to come together for a nice storm or 2 to track. The 11/21-11/22 system is looking more like a west/east track now with a blocking HP across the Upper MW. Although, it is lacking cold air but this may trend better given how systems have evolved this season. Maybe an appetizer before the big Thanksgiving holiday??? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 6z GFS has a nice storm Thanksgiving weekend, hopefully it will be colder.Indeed, hopefully to be suppressed. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 Attm, its clear and 28F. Looks like the weekend will feature colder temps as a CF pushes southward. Highs staying below freezing and lows in the teens. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 NOAA: Pacific jet streaming over the Rockies will then dip towards theGulf of Mexico and set up a longwave trough over the eastern half ofthe CONUS for the first half of next week. General uncertainty inprecipitation chances during the first half of next week, but modelsare picking up on a shortwave with a PV max dropping out of theCanadian Rockies and into the Great Lakes. This may bring the nextshot at some light snow showers Tuesday night. Greater confidenceduring the first half of next week will be continued below normaltemperatures as temperatures remain in the 30s with high temperatures. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 It's shaping up to be a cold and stormy Thanksgiving week...just need the pieces to come together for a nice storm or 2 to track. The 11/21-11/22 system is looking more like a west/east track now with a blocking HP across the Upper MW. Although, it is lacking cold air but this may trend better given how systems have evolved this season. Maybe an appetizer before the big Thanksgiving holiday???I think I jumped the gun a little on the start of cycle 2 being around the 21st/22nd. Things are not lining up that way, so it does loo like a longer cycle this year. I would be expecting a cutter similar to the storm Thanksgiving weekend, but with the models being so wonky in the long range we may not know until a couple days before. However on the bright side nothing wrong with having even more wet storms in each cycle it's gonna be a fun year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 Mid month summery. At the half way point one can say this November first half has been cold. At this time the mean temperature at GRR is 32.4° (-10.9°) if this were to hold this would be the 5th coldest November at Grand Rapids in recorded history. The warmest it has been so far is just 52 on the 4th and if that holds that would tie last year for the coldest maximum in any November. The low so far this is month is 15 on the 13th and so far, there has been 6.5” of snow fall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 Welcome to the start of deer season 2019. The current temperature here at my house is 32 and there is still 2” of snow on the ground. Yesterday the official H/L at GRR was 32/24 and there was a trace of snow fall. For today the average H/L is 48/33. The record high is 68 in 1990 the record low is 10 in 1933. The record snow fall is 4.1” in 1969. Last year the H/L was 31/25 and there was 3.1” of snow fall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 Both my parents/grandparents were from Detroit proper so I grew up visiting many relatives in the Motor City all the time. The region has just experienced an incredible stretch of early onset winter. Here's a comprehensive list of NEW milestones courtesy of MichSnowFreak's posting on Amwx. He's the official snow measurement guy for DTW/NWS. He's the guy that made all the measurements 6 yrs ago that led to the new all-time seasonal total for Detroit, edging out 1880-81. He also posts regularly on the SMI site out of Battle Creek, but that's down for about a week now. This guy loves his stats! November 11th: Record snowfall of 8.5" ***largest calendar day snowfall on record for November*** November 11/12th: Largest November snowstorm on record, 9.2" November 12th: Record low maximum of 25FNovember 12th: Record low of 13FNovember 12th: Record snow depth of 9" November 13th: Record low of 7F ***first single digit low in November since 9F on Nov 21, 1969*** ***coldest Nov temp since 7F on Nov 24, 1950******there has not been a colder Nov temp since 4F on Nov 30, 1929, or 90 years ago!***November 13th: The 7F is the earliest to hit single digits on record (old record Nov 16, 1933)November 13th: Record snow depth of 7" Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 From the NWS KC.The welcome return to normal temperature for middle Nov return today and continue through the weekend. This after the first two weeks on Nov have averaged 8.9 degrees below normal and was the 8th coldest on record (132 years). Enjoy!5:40 AM - 15 Nov 2019More 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 The snowpack around here should really start to melt as temps warm into the upper 30's. Looks like we should also get a bit of rain on Sunday and that will help melt the snow and wash off the salt and sand on the roads. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 This isn't what I would typically like to say, but I actually would like it to melt so that I can do a final clean up! Ditto. There are oak leaves all over the snow that I'd like to bag up. I also still have a few other yard/garden chores to do before winter moves in for good. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 ^ You guys might get your chance next week. That 21/22 system looking warm and rainy south of here. Lots of snowmelt if it verifies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 Finally broke the freezing mark just before noon in Marshall. But I see now my grid is only calling for a high of 33F. This morning it was 36F, yesterday it was 39F, two days ago it was low 40s 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 For those into wx history as well as the current happenings, Bill Deedler has an updated article (complete with surface maps) looking at the historical cold wave of November 1880 and how it compares with Nov's 2019 and 2014. Great story and I'm a general history buff so this stuff is double cool in my book. Can't help but continue my thoughts that 1880-81 may be a strong analog to this winter. https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/ 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 For those into wx history as well as the current happenings, Bill Deedler has an updated article (complete with surface maps) looking at the historical cold wave of November 1880 and how it compares with Nov's 2019 and 2014. Great story and I'm a general history buff so this stuff is double cool in my book. Can't help but continue my thoughts that 1880-81 may be a strong analog to this winter. https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/ Dayum, I just took a look at the data in Omaha for 1880-81. November through March were 10-12 degrees below average except for Dec (which was -7.6). These days it's a big accomplishment just to get one random well below average month. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 Pretty quiet weather over the next 10 days for a lot of us if the Euro is right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 It's well into the 40s here in the city. Green spots are gradually expanding. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 Feels nice outside w temps at 35F under mostly cloudy skies. Still way BN. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 Thanksgiving Day storm looks very interesting. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 59 here this afternoon. Sunny and beautiful! 50s every day through next Wednesday except for Sunday when it’s supposed to be in the upper 40s 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 Dayum, I just took a look at the data in Omaha for 1880-81. November through March were 10-12 degrees below average except for Dec (which was -7.6). These days it's a big accomplishment just to get one random well below average month. Care to share the data you looked at?? I love looking at historical data related to weather! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 GFS has been pulling the thurs/fri system to the west with each run. Not buying it at this point as it’s still over 120 hours out. But, something to keep an eye on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 Sneaky little system that I really haven’t kept an eye much but the Saturday night system might produce some snow around these parts. Nickels and dimes keeping us at average snowfall so far. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 NOAA: The 12Z NAM has trended more toward the ECWMFsolution which places more energy/amplification in the base of thetrough, leading to a stronger wave diving across the southeastern USSun night/Monday and thus limited forcing/moisture over Se Mi. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Currently it is 22F under clear skies. It will be very cold tanite w lows in the teens. Highs tomorrow barely getting outta the 20s for highs. Snow otg aint going nowhere. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 GFS has been pulling the thurs/fri system to the west with each run. Not buying it at this point as it’s still over 120 hours out. But, something to keep an eye on.Woah. 0z GFS for the win. Cooking up a special. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 I'd need to see a lot more from the GFS and other models before I jumped on this GFS run. The northern stream is suddenly digging south on this run rather than sliding more east like previous runs. The last two Euro runs have gone the other way. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 The pattern depicted on most, if not all of the models starting around next week is a beauty. There will be tons of blocking to the north and also an active jet as well. If this holds, then, fun times ahead! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Other than the warm system next week bringing rain to those south and east of here, there’s not a lot going on at this point. That run last night by the GFS was a fluke. At least the flow becomes a bit more zonal. That NW flow gets old after a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Is anyone else getting worried about the MJO heading into the warm phase for December? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 The official H/L at GRR yesterday was 39/28. The over night low both here at my house and at the airport was 22° and at this time it is 25 at both locations with mostly clear skies. The sun yesterday melted most of the snow here at my house and there is now just trace amounts of snow on the ground where the sun reached the snow cover. There is still snow on the north side and in the woods. For today the average H/L is 47/33. The record high is 68 way back in 1869 and the record low is 11 set in 1933. The biggest snow fall was 5.0” in 2005. Last year the H/L was 38/28. It sure is odd how this November and last November are so much alike. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Gfs says what system? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Another record in the books for Chitown... NWS ChicagoVerified account @NWSChicagoFollowFollow @NWSChicagoMore"Congrats" #Chicago-ans, you just lived through the coldest first half of November in the past 148 years! The average temperature from Nov. 1-15 was 31.2°, with the previous record cold (since 1871) first half of the month in 1991 (average temp of 31.4°). #ilwx 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Care to share the data you looked at?? I love looking at historical data related to weather! https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=oax NWS NOWDATA page has historical data for a lot of stations. Sorry for the late response, I only see notifications when I'm on desktop lol. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 when's the next cold snap....ready to fill the ice rink! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 when's the next cold snap....ready to fill the ice rink! it could be a while with the mjo heading the wrong way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 It’s been a boring November here. Cold and dry with only one day of precipitation/snow the first 16 days. Thankfully it’s warmed up for a while recently and we hit 61 today. Follow that up with the last 20 days of relative boredom to end October and it’s been a rather slow 35 or so days here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 it could be a while with the mjo heading the wrong way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Terry Swails posted a blog about that very thing and his concerns. He showed the EURO going into phase 4 and maybe 5 or 6 from there...that would be a warm Dec. he said. Let’s hope that EURO run is wrong!? This happened in KC last year, some very early snows in fall and then nothing until Jan. 12th. We had big storms in Dec. but it was too warm. The whole country was warm..I remember all of us complaining about rain in Dec. Per the so called cycling pattern, that warm phase never cycled back through as Mid Jan through April was very cold with only minor warm-ups. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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