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November 2019 Observations and Discussion


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Came home for lunch and this buddy was hanging out enjoying the snow. He came right up to me to say hi. He knows he’s safe in the city limits that’s for sure.

Not sure if anyone has said it yet, but PivotalWeather has added a TON of new products for the ECMWF as well as 6hr intervals and regional maps. Gonna be *really* nice.   https://www.pivotalweather.co

Nebraska is a popular pass through for migration birds and just had over 100 geese go over head. Big changes up north must be occurring.

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Have to watch for a storm next week (Th-Sat timeframe). I think enough cold air will be in place for some snow accumulations. Who gets what, where, how much is all up in the air.

More white than wet?!

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Have to watch for a storm next week (Th-Sat timeframe). I think enough cold air will be in place for some snow accumulations. Who gets what, where, how much is all up in the air. I believe that cold air will be available this time. More white than wet?!

Thje models look very cold, should be a fun month.

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LES this weekend will be kicking in......

 

LESnowNew.jpeg?w=632

 

Just like 13-14, there should be above to way above normal LES with the lakes so full and coming off a warm summer, then plunging into a cold winter. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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It's going to feel like mid-winter later next week across the heartland and our northern members.  An active pattern is going to set up as we will likely track a couple systems moving through the northern half of our Sub.  A rather decent clipper is poised to track across the Upper MW Mon/Tue ushering a push of cold air out ahead of the next wave mid/late next week.  A sharp thermal boundary sets up shop over the Plains/MW/GL's.  Last nights 00z GFS is painting another snowfall for a lot of us.

 

As this pattern continues to evolve, one of the real exciting things I'm noticing is that we are not lacking tracking systems/storms.  In years past, a week would go by before the next storm started showing up on the models.  On the other hand, this year it seems like every other day there is a system traversing our Sub one way or another.  It's certainly not a boring pattern.

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The flip to winter has been fast and furious. I dont really see any letting up. We're constantly 15-20 degrees below normal and most of the sub have already had snow. Pretty remarkable

Indeed it is!  A lot of us will see daytime highs in the 20's next week with snow OTG during the 1st week of November.  That's something I haven't seen in a while.  I can't remember exactly when the Nov '14 cold came but I do remember going fishing in Wisconsin that month and there was already ice forming on the lake where I was fishing near the shoreline and launch area.

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Indeed it is!  A lot of us will see daytime highs in the 20's next week with snow OTG during the 1st week of November.  That's something I haven't seen in a while.  I can't remember exactly when the Nov '14 cold came but I do remember going fishing in Wisconsin that month and there was already ice forming on the lake where I was fishing near the shoreline and launch area.

2014 here at DSM-- from NOV 11 to NOV 21st had eleven consecutive days 10F or more below avg. Coldest day relative to avg was NOV 19th with a high of 19 - low of 11 . 23F below normal for that day.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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2014 here at DSM-- from NOV 11 to NOV 21st had eleven consecutive days 10F or more below avg. Coldest day relative to avg was NOV 19th with a high of 19 - low of 11 . 23F below normal for that day.

That sounds about right.  Thanks Grizz.  This year we are starting way earlier and maybe much harder and longer than '14.

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It's going to feel like mid-winter later next week across the heartland and our northern members.  An active pattern is going to set up as we will likely track a couple systems moving through the northern half of our Sub.  A rather decent clipper is poised to track across the Upper MW Mon/Tue ushering a push of cold air out ahead of the next wave mid/late next week.  A sharp thermal boundary sets up shop over the Plains/MW/GL's.  Last nights 00z GFS is painting another snowfall for a lot of us.

 

As this pattern continues to evolve, one of the real exciting things I'm noticing is that we are not lacking tracking systems/storms.  In years past, a week would go by before the next storm started showing up on the models.  On the other hand, this year it seems like every other day there is a system traversing our Sub one way or another.  It's certainly not a boring pattern.

 

In the great winters it seems to snow all the time. What I call the crisscross effect where the primary storm tracks overlap. This may be another magnitude above those! I envision some places (SWMI??) still digging out from one of these major S Stream systems when WHAM! a strong clipper is fast on the heels as we've been seeing several times so far.

 

That "spoof" map I posted with 16 snow days around here? might not be so far-fetched the way things are starting off.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Modeling now starting to show some of the break in the cold I'm anticipating post November 10th for we southerners in the group.

 

Our friends up north get to enjoy what looks like a "clipper-zipper" pattern throughout the run. Looks pretty exciting and fun for you all.

 

After that, sometime after the 20th, I expect to see the first real onslaught of deep southern lows, cold and snow to show their face for us down here in TX and eastern Oklahoma.

This is more in line with what I truly did anticipate and I do think it will come to fruition.

 

You folks got white Halloween. Can I get my white Thanksgiving after all? We shall see. The suspense builds....

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Modeling now starting to show some of the break in the cold I'm anticipating post November 10th for we southerners in the group.

 

Our friends up north get to enjoy what looks like a "clipper-zipper" pattern throughout the run. Looks pretty exciting and fun for you all.

 

After that, sometime after the 20th, I expect to see the first real onslaught of deep southern lows, cold and snow to show their face for us down here in TX and eastern Oklahoma.

This is more in line with what I truly did anticipate and I do think it will come to fruition.

 

You folks got white Halloween. Can I get my white Thanksgiving after all? We shall see. The suspense builds....

 

Pulling for you OKWx!  This glancing blow wrt the snow/winds/temps has me wishing for this to revisit after it's cold. 95% of this qpf will have run down the storm drain when said and done Friday. Be great if we could repeat this around Thanksgiving. Last year T-day was very cold but dry. We had some scattered left-over snow patches. The big storm hit the following Monday 11-26

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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PER NOAA:

 

After the system passage Wednesday, the polar jet drops south to
near the MI-OH allowing for a very cold Canadian airmass to move in
across the northern Plains and Great Lakes region. With the lakes
still running in the 50`s, they will help to moderate this airmass
as it reaches SE MI keeping the coldest temperatures well west of
the region. That said, high temperatures are going to be very below
average struggling to even reach 40 Thursday and Friday.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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1572521063571_1031novembertempoutlookAM.

Might as well pin that as the winter temps map

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Dont forget to set your clocks back 1 hr this weekend.....

 

Daylight saving time ends on the first Sunday in November, when clocks are moved back an hour at 2 a.m. local daylight time (so they will then read 1 a.m. local standard time)

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Is it just me or does everyone on here think this cold pattern setting in is going to lock in like 2013-14 and last until march?

I just keep thinking of Nov-Dec 2014. Nov was well below average but December flipped on a coin to well above average. Why is a 2014 repeat not just as likely? Honest question.

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Is it just me or does everyone on here think this cold pattern setting in is going to lock in like 2013-14 and last until march?

I just keep thinking of Nov-Dec 2014. Nov was well below average but December flipped on a coin to well above average. Why is a 2014 repeat not just as likely? Honest question.

 

Some say the cold is NOT going to "lock in". I don't think that term is well defined anyways since there needs to be a qualifier of duration (which always seems to be missing when peeps use it) such as "for a week" or "for November", etc. Personally, there is a chance we see 2014 vs 2013. I remember Nov 2014 was kicked off when a re-curving typhoon drove far north as a beastly post-tropical cyclone and dislodged a massive pre-winter cold wave. It also only lasted about 15 or 20 days, then all of Dec was a dumpster fire. If there's any leaning towards a colder outcome going forward this year, I believe it has to do with the over-all pattern setting up for winter vs. a temporary cold dump like we saw in 2014. Tom should weigh-in tho as he's the expert in this stuff, as well as OKWx

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Is it just me or does everyone on here think this cold pattern setting in is going to lock in like 2013-14 and last until march?

I just keep thinking of Nov-Dec 2014. Nov was well below average but December flipped on a coin to well above average. Why is a 2014 repeat not just as likely? Honest question.

I've maintained that there will be a "break period" and then another crash. That break starts around the 10th in my book and has for a long time. Ends around the 20th.

 

The tricky part is for the northern tier. You all have run well below average for longer in the pattern process than I have. My main targets for the warm up are the southern third and eastern third. I haven't had the continuity in the pattern that you folks have. Not really sure where Beltrami Island is either. My 2c. Would I like the pattern to run continuously? Yes. Will it? Probably not. Variance is good for snow though.

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I've maintained that there will be a "break period" and then another crash. That break starts around the 10th in my book and has for a long time. Ends around the 20th.

 

The tricky part is for the northern tier. You all have run well below average for longer in the pattern process than I have. My main targets for the warm up are the southern third and eastern third. I haven't had the continuity in the pattern that you folks have. Not really sure where Beltrami Island is either. My 2c. Would I like the pattern to run continuously? Yes. Will it? Probably not. Variance is good for snow though.

If you're wondering my location, I am in Baudette MN the Minnesota/Ontario border 60 miles west of International Falls

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Thank you. Yeah, you may not see many breaks. That's the freezer of the nation anyway. Lol.

 

I will add to my thoughts though, the pattern that was kicked off in November 2013 produced the coldest wall-to-wall year in far eastern Oklahoma and western and central Arkansas history (Jan-Dec 2014).

 

Not something you ever saw advertised in the public eye but the stats are there. That's one year off a solar peak as well.

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Next week, especially, midweek on, will feature a very drastic change......

 

Pattern.jpeg?w=632

 

Great, looks like a 2013/2014 repeat. Northwest flow is terrible for us in Nebraska. We don't get much from the clippers and so our storm threat is basically nil in the pattern pictured above. No thanks.

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Welcome to November!  Waking up to a fresh snow pack, clear skies, calm winds and the coldest temp of the season (23F).  Winter has arrived early around the majority of our Sub.  It's rather memorable to see the amount of snow that fell across portions of the MW/GL's over the past several days.  Is this a harbinger of things to come???  Who really knows but I'll tell you one thing, the pattern is going to be favorable for more wintry precip over the next couple weeks.

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Is it just me or does everyone on here think this cold pattern setting in is going to lock in like 2013-14 and last until march?

I just keep thinking of Nov-Dec 2014. Nov was well below average but December flipped on a coin to well above average. Why is a 2014 repeat not just as likely? Honest question.

It has a lot to do with the alignment of the Polar Vortex.  Iirc, back in Dec ' 14 the PV centered itself on the other side of the Pole into Russia  that month and the flow at 10mb was not favorable to seed cold air into North America.  This year, however, there seems to be an ideal alignment on the N PAC side of the Arctic and the Atlantic side which causes a "squeeze play" on the PV which configures an elongated N/S alignment, or rather, a Cross Polar Flow pattern.

 

The way I see it, if the Strat continues to show bursts of warming over in Siberia/Russia this will continue to perturb the PV in a manner that continues to keep the flow seeding Arctic Air into North America.  

 

 

Gotta give kuddos to the GEFS as they well predicted (2 weeks ago) the first decent warming event that is ongoing now over Siberia/Russia.  It does a very good job in the long range.

 

temp10anim.gif

 

 

temp30anim.gif

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Good morning and welcome to November. The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 41/34. While the area was under a WWA there was just 0.1” of snow fall reported. The current temperature here at my house is 32° The average H/L for today is 54/37 the record high for today is 81 and that is a record high for November as well and that was set in 1950. That is the latest that it has gotten 80 or better at Grand Rapids. The lowest temperature for today is 21 set in 1976.  A brief October summery. The mean here at Grand Rapids was 50.8° and that is a departure of -0.8° The highest reading at GRR was 77 on the 1st and the lowest was 31 on the 26th There was 7.16” of precip and of that 0.3” was snow fall.

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Thank you. Yeah, you may not see many breaks. That's the freezer of the nation anyway. Lol.

 

Yes, when comparing temps I always look at departure from averages though. I laugh at what most of the country thinks is "cold". On the other hand I think 85 is "hot" in the summer and have gone entire summers without hitting 90.

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Some flakes here this morning. 30F.

 

Gonna have to pull the dock out of the water this weekend. After a high of 40F on Monday it might not get above freezing again for the foreseeable future. We should see some ice starting on the lakes very soon. My neighbor a few houses down has an annual tradition of waterskiing on the lake on Thanksgiving morning. I’m pretty sure that’s not going to be possible this year.

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Most of the models are very close to having a storm in the middle of the country around the 8th.  The CMC and Euro at times have had one, I bet by the end of the day or tomorrow we will have another system to track.

Fun times ahead! :D

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Great, looks like a 2013/2014 repeat. Northwest flow is terrible for us in Nebraska. We don't get much from the clippers and so our storm threat is basically nil in the pattern pictured above. No thanks.

:D

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Monitcello, between Cedar Rapids and Dubuque, hit 12º this morning.  The CR airport reached the upper teens.  Here in the city we only reached the mid 20s.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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If you're wondering my location, I am in Baudette MN the Minnesota/Ontario border 60 miles west of International Falls

I'm looking forward to reading your winter news. You're right there in the cold spot of the nation.

I'm farthest south so it will be an interesting winter news-wise.

 

Lots of freezes out there.

 

IMG_3978.PNG

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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