November 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Mi_Matthew]

NAM is still showing nothing this weekend with secondary piece out of the southwest. ICON still keeping hope alive(barely). Let's see if the GFS keeps the snow here...only need 2.4" at DTW on the month! C'mon Michigan, magnets out!

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings Twitter page snowfall from last winter and departure from average.

 

https://twitter.com/nwshastings/status/1197268636685066240?s=21

[jaster220]

I'm hearing a lot of mets are now beginning to jump on board for an active/cold and stormy pattern from Thanksgiving into early December.  #BuildTheGlacier

 

JB was saying such on his update last Saturday as well 

 

Will be a huge win if we score mostly white systems with this LRC 2nd cycle!

[Mi_Matthew]

Anyone else looked at snowdepth off the 12z CFS today?!?! My goodness, talk about sharing the wealth...

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=snod&rh=2019112012&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=#

 

(I'm almost always on mobile, so no maps)

[CentralNebWeather]

BAW Weather Twitter showing active pattern.

 

https://twitter.com/met_khinz/status/1197242056709685248?s=21

[CentralNebWeather]

Nice rain falling in Central Nebraska. Much needed as it has been very dry lately.

[jaster220]

Big changes on the 12z GEFS with substantial blocking across western Greenland...IMO, this is THE best blocking scenario for our Sub.  West-based Greenland blocks tend to rock and roll across our Sub.  Having said that, the 12z GEFS run has turned much colder and snowier post Thanksgiving as we head into December.  Are we going to kick start the Holiday season with a major winter storm and roll it on through the Holidays???  Buckle up...Winter is coming back with a vengeance!

 

 

 

 

Major Tom speaks...CFS listens! Picture perfect bud 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Major Tom speaks...CFS listens! Picture perfect bud

 

20191120 12z CFS SN depth for Dec 8th.JPG

Whoa. Picture perfect scenario for many of us.

[Clinton]

Nothing much but the 18z Euro is showing some light accumulation for a few of us on Friday.

[CentralNebWeather]

Raw evening. Temp has dropped to 41 with a north wind gusting to 30 mph and it’s raining sideways. We hit 60 about 3 pm.

[St Paul Storm]

Lightning strikes southwest of Duluth. Impressive.

[Mi_Matthew]

Major Tom speaks...CFS listens! Picture perfect bud

 

20191120 12z CFS SN depth for Dec 8th.JPG

Thank you for posting the map, Jaster. Too good to be true but we can dream, right?

[Madtown]

[BMT]

Seeing some lightning to the north here as well.

[Mi_Matthew]

[jaster220]

Nothing much but the 18z Euro is showing some light accumulation for a few of us on Friday.

 

Be sweet if that could trend just a tad bit stronger over my way    (thx for posting btw)

[jaster220]

[East Dubzz]

Had no idea it was supposed to rain a little until I heard some thunder...

[Mi_Matthew]

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

The southern stream low pressure system over southern CA remains
projected to move into the 4 corners Thursday and into the central
Plains Friday. It then begins interaction with the northern stream
of the upper air pattern and the surface front across the TN/OH
valleys. Model trends are slightly farther north on the track
compared to yesterday due to greater phasing with the primary short
wave moving through central Canada. This leads to the northern
fringe of moisture reaching SE Michigan from the Ohio valley late
Saturday and Saturday night. Additional adjustments remain possible
as the northern stream wave reaches the west coast for improved
upper air sampling, however model solutions show better agreement
with the focus on this wave rather than the noisy smaller scale
features in previous runs. Then question then is if timing holds and
allows the necessary phasing with the southern stream to solidify
the track forecast. As it stands now, chance POPs for a light mix of
rain and snow continues to have support up through the Detroit area
late Saturday and during Saturday evening.

[Clinton]

NOAA:

 

The southern stream low pressure system over southern CA remains

projected to move into the 4 corners Thursday and into the central

Plains Friday. It then begins interaction with the northern stream

of the upper air pattern and the surface front across the TN/OH

valleys. Model trends are slightly farther north on the track

compared to yesterday due to greater phasing with the primary short

wave moving through central Canada. This leads to the northern

fringe of moisture reaching SE Michigan from the Ohio valley late

Saturday and Saturday night. Additional adjustments remain possible

as the northern stream wave reaches the west coast for improved

upper air sampling, however model solutions show better agreement

with the focus on this wave rather than the noisy smaller scale

features in previous runs. Then question then is if timing holds and

allows the necessary phasing with the southern stream to solidify

the track forecast. As it stands now, chance POPs for a light mix of

rain and snow continues to have support up through the Detroit area

late Saturday and during Saturday evening.

The trend is your friend.  ICON much further north today.

[jaster220]

At Clinton

 

Yep, ICON bringing a bit of snowfall with that run. Let's see if it's a blip or the trend-setter?

 

[Niko]

The trend is your friend.  ICON much further north today.

Yes sir, indeed.

 

Also, perfect track.

[jaster220]

NAM took a big step in the right direction for southern MI this weekend, hopefully we see some more curveballs thrown by the models tonight. Local AFDs should be a good read in the morning, maybe even GRR's will be more than 6 sentences!

 

What run? All look way down in OH to my eyes. DTX's AFD is encouraging tho

[Mi_Matthew]

What run? All look way down in OH to my eyes. DTX's AFD is encouraging tho

Tonight's 0z NAM was way north. Not as far north as 0z ICON/GFS though.

[jaster220]

Tonight's 0z NAM was way north. Not as far north as 0z ICON/GFS though.

 

Sure you didn't mean the GFS??

 

Baby!

 

[jaster220]

Tonight's 0z NAM was way north. Not as far north as 0z ICON/GFS though.

 

0z NAM

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=ncus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019112100&fh=84

[Niko]

Sure you didn't mean the GFS??

 

Baby!

 

20191121 0z GFS h84 Snowfall.png

5"+ for our area

[jaster220]

5"+ for our area

 

Glad you caught that, tho KCH prolly cuts that down..

[jaster220]

Glad you caught that, tho KCH prolly cuts that down..

 

YUP 

 

[Niko]

YUP 

 

20191121 0z GFS h96 KCH Snowfall.png

 

Glad you caught that, tho KCH prolly cuts that down..

[Mi_Matthew]

Looks like Canadian will be in agreement as well. We just may have a Lower Peninsula special this weekend!

[OmahaSnowFan]

59 degrees and a steady rain at 1130 at night. Might even get a clap or two of thunder. Kind of feels like spring outside

[Money]

GFS with a storm train throughout the end of the run. A lot of cutters.

[Hawkeye]

This rain event ended up being a bit of a dud, here.  The model consensus across the area was too high in general, plus there is a dry hole on the radar estimate over the Cedar Rapids area.  It appears we only got a few tenths.

[St Paul Storm]

Other than the completely unreliable GFS, models have really backed off on any real snow systems for many posters.

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

Low end precipitation chances will return to the forecast late
Saturday afternoon and early Saturday night across Lower Michigan. A
low pressure system associated with the southern stream jet is
forecast to move across the TN and OH Valleys during this time and
interact with a northern stream wave. The potential for these two
waves to phase with one another may lead to the northern edge of
moisture reaching lower portions of the CWA as the bulk of the
system passes to the southeast. The Euro has trended towards the more
northerly track, but presents just a glancing blow with little
impact while the GFS is more bullish with snowfall potential. High
uncertainty with this system as timing of these waves and potential
phasing remains in question.

[Niko]

Today will feature temps well into the 40s along w some showers and winds will be a big factor as well.

 

Watching the weekend for a potential snowstorm!

[Grizzcoat]

With another .12" of rainfall at the DSM airport through 6:20am; that puts DSM tied for 5th place for wettest years on record.

 

1 56.81 1881   2 55.88 1993   3 51.77 2010   4 49.42 2008   5 47.60 2019-11-21 (6:20AM) 40.75 days missing 

5 47.60 1882

[CentralNebWeather]

We got .50 here last night. Well above expectations. Models as of yesterday were putting my area around.10.