November 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Mi_Matthew]

Any of my fellow Michiganders follow Mark Torregrossa on Mlive.com?

 

He's usually a pretty good read and will often throw in some old-school forecasting rules I have either heard and forgotten or are new to me.

 

From his recent post regarding the pattern over the next two weeks, "When we get into these active southwest flow patterns, there are usually four storm systems, with the third storm usually being the strongest."

 

I wonder which storm we would consider the first though. If we count the recent rainer(for most) as number 1, the weaker current system as 2, the pre-Turkey Day is the big one, followed by December 1st/2nd as the 4th.

 

Anybody else ever heard this "rule" before?

 

https://connect.mlive.com/staff/torregrossa/posts.html

[jaster220]

Any of my fellow Michiganders follow Mark Torregrossa on Mlive.com?

 

He's usually a pretty good read and will often throw in some old-school forecasting rules I have either heard and forgotten or are new to me.

 

From his recent post regarding the pattern over the next two weeks, "When we get into these active southwest flow patterns, there are usually four storm systems, with the third storm usually being the strongest."

 

I wonder which storm we would consider the first though. If we count the recent rainer(for most) as number 1, the weaker current system as 2, the pre-Turkey Day is the big one, followed by December 1st/2nd as the 4th.

 

Anybody else ever heard this "rule" before?

 

https://connect.mlive.com/staff/torregrossa/posts.html

 

Thx for posting that link. I like MT and during winter will read his articles I just lost all my saved sites when my laptop died and am slowly rebuilding my library. Not sure I've heard of the "group of 4" storms but it sounds vaguely familiar. I do remember in late Jan early Feb of '82 we had 3 systems in a row hit SEMI in about an 8 day period. In that case tho, the first storm was the biggie at 10-12", then #2 was a 5-8" hit, and finally #3 was more like a 2-4" deal. Snow depths were awesome all across SMI at the end of that stormy week. I expect we may see something similar this winter. 

[Niko]

Attm, clear skies and temp is at 25F.

[Niko]

The pattern looks great w blocking for early December n beyond. I am watching next weekend. My forecast has snow for Friday nite into Saturday. Also, epo goes negative. 

 

Next week should be a dull week weatherwise w rain by Tuesday into Wed. It starts getting colder by Turkey Day.

[Mi_Matthew]

Nothing to write home about, but the 0z GFS puts SE Michigan back in the game for a light accumulation tomorrow night.

[Mi_Matthew]

Also, apparently the debut run of the "GFS Hi-res" on pivotal weather. Hmmm...

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

Compact upper wave entering southern Saskatchewan will be racing
east and the height fall center will be tracking through the
northern Great Lakes on Saturday. Meanwhile, closed/elongated upper
level low over the Central Plains opens up and tracks through the
southern Ohio Valley. 700 MB Theta-e ridge looks to rotate northward
and reach southern Lake Erie into northwest Ohio. It continues to
look like a real close call, but low level dry air is expected to
hold over southeast Michigan as the next shortwave trough/energy
entering the western Great Lakes/Midwest Saturday evening should
assure the lead system remains progressive and pulls east. Even if
precip did somehow make it past the border, thermal profiles
suggests just rain becoming wet snow flakes.

[Mi_Matthew]

The pattern looks great w blocking for early December n beyond. I am watching next weekend. My forecast has snow for Friday nite into Saturday. Also, epo goes negative.

 

Next week should be a dull week weatherwise w rain by Tuesday into Wed. It starts getting colder by Turkey Day.

I wouldn't write it off as dull just yet. Seems like the biggest surprises in this young season occur in the 36-48 hours out window.

[Niko]

I wouldn't write it off as dull just yet. Seems like the biggest surprises in this young season occur in the 36-48 hours out window.

Well, hope you are right, otherwise, yes, it will be dull!

 

Not writing off this storm, just implying that it looks like more of an rainevent.

[Mi_Matthew]

[Mi_Matthew]

Somebody in OH, maybe even IN is going to score pretty big tomorrow, IMO. 0z HRRR depicting 1012mb surface low in northern MS @ hour 5 down to 995mb roughly 24 hours later in western PA. Should be fun to watch radar trends tomorrow, if nothing else.

[Hawkeye]

GFS continues to show some impressive cold diving down in early December.

[Hawkeye]

GFS and Euro now showing a huge bowling ball upper low tracking eastward across the country at the end of the month into early December.  Both dump quite a bit of snow on the northern plains.

[Tom]

The storm system taking shape at the end of the month is one to watch as the pattern gets really blocked up.  After analyzing the LRC, this storm may be correlating better with the Oct 9th-13th Dakota's Blizzard that lambasted the Upper MW.  The storm we are tracking next Tue/Wed looks like its lining up with the Oct 5th-6th storm but tracking farther south this time due to seasonal differences and blocking.  I'd watch for farther shifts in the late month storm in the days ahead.

 

With that being said, the 00z GEFS continue to show a big Canadian "Banana HP" which allows the storm to slow down and "bowl" its way West/East across the Plains/MW.  Check out the shifts S in just 24 hours of runs from yesterday's 06z compared to the 06z run this morning...this is going to be a fun storm to track during the Holiday next week.

 

 

[Tom]

It's hard not to get excited about the Holidays as Chicago held their annual Christmas Tree lighting last night and the Magnificent Mile Lights Festival is being held tonight.  Let the holiday festivities begin!  All we need now is some snow and cold...I'm thinking of taking out my holiday lights/decor today and prep for putting them up next week sometime.

[Niko]

Attm, sunny and cold w temps at 27F.

[MIKEKC]

There has been some mention of the up coming storms as being repeats of cycle one per the LRC......early October. However, at that time there was not a big wet storm crashing into California. There is one this week...so, how does that match up?

 

I think cycle one has yet to complete. The storms this week are part of cycle one.

[Clinton]

Just talked to a buddy back home sounds like we had about 1/2 inch of snow last night.

[Tom]

Just talked to a buddy back home sounds like we had about 1/2 inch of snow last night.

This system in mid & late Winter should produce more than it has during this cycle. More juice to work with later on in the season.

[OKwx2k4]

Dang. West Texas and Western OK looking like a white Thanksgiving on GFS. Still time for south and east on that, but Texas has a huge snowpack after that run. Interesting.

 

6z, that is, 12z starting....

[OKwx2k4]

Guess a few light snow flurries fell in the area this morning.

 

"Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tulsa OK

519 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2019

 

.AVIATION...

CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

Areas of light drizzle, mixed with a few snow flurries, will continue

for the next few hours across northwest Arkansas before precipitation

shifts east of the region. Ceilings heights will rise generally from

west to east with VFR conditions expected across NW AR by 18Z."

[Andie]

Dang. West Texas and Western OK looking like a white Thanksgiving on GFS. Still time for south and east on that, but Texas has a huge snowpack after that run. Interesting.

6z, that is, 12z starting....

I'm sure that's all Panhandle and maybe into Lubbock, Wichita Falls.

Takes a hard push and deep moist cold to give DFW 3-5" of snow. Please, no ice, k?

We usually don't see it till after Jan. 1st anyway.

 

Check your tires and emergency road supplies folks. It's gonna be an interesting winter.

[Niko]

Its cold currently (At 28F w partly cloudy skies)...waiting for my workers to come and install my decor outside. Hope they are bundled up.

[CentralNebWeather]

Loving this 12z GFS run. Large snowpack across much of the Central US if it verifies.

[Hawkeye]

Loving this 12z GFS run. Large snowpack across much of the Central US if it verifies.

 

Quite the storm potential as the deep upper trough ejects into the plains.  There should be a ton of available moisture.

[CentralNebWeather]

Quite the storm potential as the deep upper trough ejects into the plains. There should be a ton of available moisture.

You’re right. This is potentially much more exciting than last November around here.

[MIKEKC]

You’re right. This is potentially much more exciting than last November around here.

[OKwx2k4]

What a week depicted here.

 

Except for that hole. Lol Where I am..

[St Paul Storm]

Snows for 42 hours on the GFS. Gotta love it. Unfortunately the only way to go is down from there.

[jaster220]

It's hard not to get excited about the Holidays as Chicago held their annual Christmas Tree lighting last night and the Magnificent Mile Lights Festival is being held tonight.  Let the holiday festivities begin!  All we need now is some snow and cold...I'm thinking of taking out my holiday lights/decor today and prep for putting them up next week sometime.

 

Fantastic! I get to clean up my Nov leafs that covered everything after the storm this week. Then to finish up my outside lights! Have fun bud 

[St Paul Storm]

Canadian actually quite similar to the GFS. Monster storm that sits and spins.

[St Paul Storm]

Hi-res GFS now available on pivotal, 3 hour increments. Although not many options to choose from. Maybe it’s been on there a while and I just missed it.

[Money]

Canadian actually quite similar to the GFS. Monster storm that sits and spins.

Euro agrees

 

981 in N IL at 192

[Money]

Looks like it gets it down to 974 in southern WI

[CentralNebWeather]

Hi-res GFS now available on pivotal, 3 hour increments. Although not many options to choose from. Maybe it’s been on there a while and I just missed it.

I think it’s new. I don’t remember seeing it. Good find.

[St Paul Storm]

So..........this. Back to back slam jobs.

[St Paul Storm]

Looks like it gets it down to 974 in southern WI

This second storm is an absolute beast on Euro, GFS and GEM.

[Money]

This second storm is an absolute beast on Euro, GFS and GEM.

Goes from 993 to 974 in like 24 hours

[St Paul Storm]

Goes from 993 to 974 in like 24 hours

Not sure I can recall a storm that nearly bombs out over N IL. Lots of unhappy travelers in the Midwest if it verifies.

[Tom]

12z Euro....#BuildTheGlacier....