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November 2019 Observations and Discussion


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Came home for lunch and this buddy was hanging out enjoying the snow. He came right up to me to say hi. He knows he’s safe in the city limits that’s for sure.

Not sure if anyone has said it yet, but PivotalWeather has added a TON of new products for the ECMWF as well as 6hr intervals and regional maps. Gonna be *really* nice.   https://www.pivotalweather.co

Nebraska is a popular pass through for migration birds and just had over 100 geese go over head. Big changes up north must be occurring.

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Yes, when comparing temps I always look at departure from averages though. I laugh at what most of the country thinks is "cold". On the other hand I think 85 is "hot" in the summer and have gone entire summers without hitting 90.

Of course, it's all relative and anomaly-based is the only objective measure I use.

 

I can get near 90 in late April and I hate it. :lol: I wish I had your summer.

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I hope the cold makes a liar out of me. I REALLY do. Would be the only time in a long time I'd be happy to be wrong.

 

I see you 12z GFS. Lol.

 

That would be destructive here.

You might take a look at the CMC, it has a wave that doesn't phase until it gets east of the Mississippi.  With cold air in place or lurking close it could make for a icy situation.  

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Our snow is nearly gone again.  We are getting some light rain as well.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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JB

 

ECMWF letting http://weatherbell.com  redistribute maps to the public, so will be able to put them on, Last weeks storm in NOLA was a walking talking advertisement for it as it nailed the highest wind gusts

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The system that Clinton has been talking about on the 7th/8th has everything to do with the trough that has been spinning just west off the coast of CA.  The timing of when this energy ejects out into the plains while the northern jet drives south into the heartland will be the determining factor if we end up with a potential storm system to track.  My gut says the Euro has the right idea and has been slowly trending this energy to eject out quick enough and allow the time for a formidable system to develop.  With that being said, it's laying down a swath of accumulating snow from N MO/IL/IN/MI/OH.  Hopefully this trend will continue.

 

 

I'd like to dive in farther into this pattern and what will be another big clue for the winter pattern and this trough that has formed off the SW coast of the U.S. is an indicator of the STJ ramping up.  In the heart of winter, this is where you want storm systems or energy coming off the E PAC to track and ultimately phase with the northern stream.  IMO, this is an interesting feature of this pattern that has not happened yet since the start of the LRC.  As the jet continues to strengthen, we might see more of this down the road bc I have no doubt in my mind the NE PAC ridge is going to flex its muscles and this region may very well end up being a hot spot or the area where the Aleutian Low "hands off" energy into the SW U.S.

 

 

 

 

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00z GEFS have been trending better in the precip anomalies and showing its bias correction again....as I type this, I just heard my first Christmas season song in the background....#holidayseason is around the corner...

 

 

 

 

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Good morning. At this time, it is cloudy and 37° here at my house. The official H/L for Grand Rapids yesterday was 44/33.  For the year Grand Rapids is now up to 44.72” of total precipitation. This year will end up with one of the highest precipitation amounts in Grand Rapids recorded history as GR is already in 10 place. The record in recorded history is 48.80” in 2008.  For today the average H/L is 54/37 the record high is 77 set in 1936 and the record low is 18 set in 1951. The coldest maximum is 31 set in 1951 and the record warmest minimum is 60 set in 1936. Last year the H/L was 50/38.

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00z GEFS have been trending better in the precip anomalies and showing its bias correction again....as I type this, I just heard my first Christmas season song in the background....#holidayseason is around the corner...

Good morning do you think there is a long term trough setting up along the Mississippi River causing storm to rapidly intensify as they move past?

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Now there is something ya don't see quite often in November....

 

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI743 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-030845-Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-743 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightAn isolated thunderstorm is possible during the afternoon. Pea sizehail or ice pellets are possible with the strongest activity whilemoving west to east at 30 mph.
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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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The Omaha radar is scheduled to be out of service for three weeks, beginning November 11th.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Had a really intense burst of snow last night around 11:30. Things whitened up for a bit but it has since melted. Still some ice patches on the deck railing this morning. Gonna fire up the lawnmower one last time today and mulch leaves.

 

This NW flow that’s coming isn’t going to produce any exciting storms, but we will definitely see some snow over the next 2 weeks. Wednesday’s system looks decent right now for a quick couple of inches of snow.

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Watch when I leave for my trip to Boston, we get a snowstorm here in SEMI..... :lol: :wacko:

I don't know.  GRR says NO big storms the next couple weeks, a couple clippers with rain/snow.  NW flow, but nothing like NOV of 2014.  they say accumulations are unlikely.  

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Good morning do you think there is a long term trough setting up along the Mississippi River causing storm to rapidly intensify as they move past?

 

Yes, there is definitely a pattern developing right across the heartland where storms energize and then eventually peak in intensity across the OHV/GL's.  This is one of the more definitive storm tracks I've seen ever since I've been following the LRC.  A lot of times in years past, the storm track would favor one part of the Sub or the other.  This year, it does raise some eye brows as to where the pattern is heading.

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Now there is something ya don't see quite often in November....

 

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI743 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-030845-Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-743 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightAn isolated thunderstorm is possible during the afternoon. Pea sizehail or ice pellets are possible with the strongest activity whilemoving west to east at 30 mph.

 

GRR has a "kitchen sink" day for wx here:

 

Occasional Showers, Some Downpours with Small Hail or Snow Pellets and Perhaps a Lightning Strike
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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I don't know.  GRR says NO big storms the next couple weeks, a couple clippers with rain/snow.  NW flow, but nothing like NOV of 2014.  they say accumulations are unlikely.  

 

May not be as extreme as Nov 2014, but we could be looking at a legit LES event. If your place is far enough away from the lakeshore you could score bigly. 

 

20191031 12zGFS temp anom h192.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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My gut says the Euro has the right idea and has been slowly trending this energy to eject out quick enough and allow the time for a formidable system to develop.  With that being said, it's laying down a swath of accumulating snow from N MO/IL/IN/MI/OH.  Hopefully this trend will continue.

 

Yeah, Euro brings my first legit snow chance Thursday..hmm

 

20191102 0zEuro for 11-7  3pm.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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CPC onboard for at least a risk of LES outbreak following that shortwave the Euro brings through the Lwr Lakes.  :)

 

20191101 hazards_d8_14_contours for 11-9 to 15.png

 

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Ummm.....

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I know this is way east, but in response to the map and Okwx's comment get this.....100mph winds in Bucks County, Penn.!

 

IMG_3980.JPG

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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North Texas is very average right now.

 

Temp - 55*. Forecast will be highs 55-70 over next 10 days

Lows in 40's.

No rain except a 30-40% chance Wed/Thurs

 

This is very average for us, nothing exceptional. All the off the charts stuff is in the northern half of the ConUS.

Have fun guys!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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North Texas is very average right now.

 

Temp - 55*. Forecast will be highs 55-70 over next 10 days

Lows in 40's.

No rain except a 30-40% chance Wed/Thurs

 

This is very average for us, nothing exceptional. All the off the charts stuff is in the northern half of the ConUS.

Have fun guys!

We'll be getting our turn at it soon enough. Especially if we don't get the break in the middle I was talking of. Right now, and in this pattern, 9-10 days is a long way away. A lot can change in model world.

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