November 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

12z GFS isn't that far off as well...I think you can say we have our next storm on deck..."Line 'em up"

 

 

[gabel23]

 

12z GFS isn't that far off as well...I think you can say we have our next storm on deck..."Line '

 

I love it tom! I should have all of my Christmas decorations up by tomorrow and timers will be ready to roll and turn on just in time for the snow!

[jaster220]

Here comes some cold 

 

[Niko]

Attm, clear w temps at 32F.

[jaster220]

Explains why skies looked like it was gonna snow earlier when I was outside working on my holiday lights. Very close call for here. 

 

[Niko]

Explains why skies looked like it was gonna snow earlier when I was outside working on my holiday lights. Very close call for here. 

 

20191123 GLs Radar 6pm.PNG

SOOOO close!!

[james1976]

Hey guys what's timeframe on 2nd storm?? Not able to keep up as well on vacation. Thanks!

[Niko]

 

The pattern for this upcoming Winter! 2019-20

[Niko]

Gorgeous evening outside w temps at 32F.

[jaster220]

Hey guys what's timeframe on 2nd storm?? Not able to keep up as well on vacation. Thanks!

 

Appears to come in rounds of precip, beginning in KS TGD, then north and/or east after that from 30th to the 2nd? Best I can surmise attm

[jaster220]

 

The pattern for this upcoming Winter! 2019-20

 

Did you read Bill Deedler's outlook for Detroit/SEMI?

[Niko]

Did you read Bill Deedler's outlook for Detroit/SEMI?

No..I dont think I have.

[jaster220]

Oh my..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

Much attention remains on the mid week, pre-holiday storm that
models have been advertising for several days now. The wave is set
to hit the west coast on Monday carving out a trough over the
western conus. A 150 knot jet max will force the system into the
plains as a progressive compact mid level low while phasing with the
southern stream jet. The surface low should be early in development
leading to a strengthen system as it lifts through central lower MI.
This has been the consensus track of late. Precip looks to begin
Tuesday afternoon as the leading arm of isentropic ascent lifts into
southern MI. Looks like a pure rain event at this point ahead of the
system as resident airmass will be warm. Warm sector will lift
through early Wednesday with a cold front to follow in the
afternoon. Could be a window of rain/snow mix or snow later on
Wednesday as cold air start to rush into the region but the bulk of
moisture should be pushed eastward by then. Expect winds to increase
on Wednesday in the warm sector as low level jet is currently
advertised to be around 50 knots. Strong winds will continue behind
the cold front in the northwest flow as models show gradient winds
in excess of 40 knots across the state.

[jaster220]

Pretty certain this is a 1st. Seeing China discussed in my AFD 

 

 

Large Scale Pattern:

Currently our northern hemisphere wave pattern is quasi-
zonal. However it is not likely to stay that way. A system coming
out of China deepens the trough west of the Dateline. That causes
a Rossby Wave train propagation issue which in turn builds an
upper ridge east of the Dateline by Monday. This results in a 180
knot jet core digging into the western United States. That in turn
develops a rather large western trough and closed upper low. The
lead wave from that system kicks out Tuesday as a 140 knot jet
core moves into the central Plains. All of our models and ensemble
members show this system closing off over Michigan by midday
Wednesday.

[Niko]

Oh my..

 

20191123 12z Euro_500mb_h216.png

[Niko]

I am definitely keeping an eye for next weekend. That storm needs to be watched for MI.

 

Also, I hope the weather cooperates next week as I am expecting New Yorkers to arrive here from Harlem, NY. Hopefully, it will be in the form of liquid and not frozen.

[jaster220]

No..I don't think I have.

 

He said that his analog list shows that unlike the "typical" ENSO Neutral pattern, this should feature a higher precip swath further north in the OHV putting SEMI in an even more favorable position than otherwise. 

 

Hopefully the blocking is legit with the 12-1&2 storm and we get in the snow game again. CPC is hinting at that as of their forecast from yesterday:

 

[Niko]

He said that his analog list shows that unlike the "typical" ENSO Neutral pattern, this should feature a higher precip swath further north in the OHV putting SEMI in an even more favorable position than otherwise. 

 

Hopefully the blocking is legit with the 12-1&2 storm and we get in the snow game again. CPC is hinting at that as of their forecast from yesterday:

 

20191122 hazards_d8_14_contours.png

Yes, I've always liked the possibility for next weekend. Also, by then, blocking will be much stronger.

[jaster220]

12z GFS isn't that far off as well...I think you can say we have our next storm on deck..."Line 'em up"

 

 

 

Sure hoping that the GFS has a clue about some blocking keeping the 2nd storm from being a repeat of the first (and a broken record of last winter for that matter). Euro gonna catch-on to increased blocking you think? 

[Tom]

Sure hoping that the GFS has a clue about some blocking keeping the 2nd storm from being a repeat of the first (and a broken record of last winter for that matter). Euro gonna catch-on to increased blocking you think?

That’s my gut feeling at this stage but like you said, I had flashbacks of last season when I saw today’s runs. We shall see how this all unfolds. Might be one of those last minute shifts for our area that we’ll need to monitor.

[jaster220]

38/20F today. That high temp was 4F BELOW, yes BELOW my NWS grid-cast (for once). Prolly due to clouds that rolled into the area from that OHV wave. Those temps will avg to well below normal for the date. #coldmonth

[Niko]

A very windy system coming for the midweek period, especially, as that cold air rushes in behind the storm.

[jaster220]

Sure hoping that the GFS has a clue about some blocking keeping the 2nd storm from being a repeat of the first (and a broken record of last winter for that matter). Euro gonna catch-on to increased blocking you think? 

 

Not looking likely as most guidance don't budge the 540 thickness between systems. Well, I will enjoy watching MN pile up the white gold (not really, but I'll be glad for SPS's sake)

[Niko]

Also, temps will be averaging AN w the midweek rainstorm. Could approach the 50s b4 tumbling into the upper 20s to near 30F. Icing of any leftover water will be a possibility.

[jaster220]

A very windy system coming for the midweek period, especially, as that cold air rushes in behind the storm.

 

Cold air rushes in, but doesn't know why it left Canada, so it promptly exits just as quickly. 

[Niko]

Cold air rushes in, but doesn't know why it left Canada, so it promptly exits just as quickly. 

Idk, but tbh, that cold air is not as cold as advertised in previous runs. I wanna say, it is now 4 to 8 degrees warmer. IIRC, my highs were forecasted in the mid 20s and now in the 30-35F range, w a storm at that point nearby (for next weekend ), which could be critical w precip type. Still early to worry about that, but something to keep in mind.

[Niko]

So far, November has been averaging way BN and above normal snowfall, so, definitely, no complaint there.

[Niko]

 Pics of.... Detroit, MI February,  Winter 2014:

 

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/m/MichiganSnowLvr/3698-800.jpg

 

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/m/MichiganSnowLvr/3954-800.jpg

[Clinton]

So..........this. Back to back slam jobs.

 

Love that 12z run of the Euro.  Best looking map of the season!

[Niko]

Beautiful evening outside, but, rather nippy w temps at 29F.

[Money]

Gfs still has that big storm but much farther north this run. Doesn’t really dig but instead just pushes East with warm air ahead of it

[Tom]

This has to be THE craziest weenie run I've ever seen any model spit out..."Oh Canada"...

 

[jaster220]

Long long list of WSWatches on the national hazards map. Almost all out west, and even Alaska now getting storms and blizzards. Las Vegas office issuing some, even calling for lower elevation snows in November has to be a little unusual. Looks like there will be 2 storms in progress at the same time, the lead system in progress in the Midwest, and the 2nd storm over the far SW CONUS. 

[Niko]

Attm, sunny and crisp w temps in the upper 20s.

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

The next strong storm system is expected to develop and mature well
west of the region next weekend. This will bring rain chances back
into the forecast with an eventual change to snow showers at the
tail end of next weekend as the system occludes and releases east
into the Great Lakes, dragging increasingly cold air into the region
in the Sunday to Monday time frame.

[Niko]

Looks like a nice mild day for Wednesday of next week w temps reaching 50F or better. That should feel awesome, even though, it comes with rain.

[Niko]

This is where the "Sneaky Storm" which passed south of SEMI is now (or will be by tanite). Close Call!

 

 

[Niko]

:lol:.....and the storm vanishes.

 

[westMJim]

With just 7 days left in November 2019 it is safe to say this this month will end up colder then average and still has a chance of being a top 10 coldest. At this time Grand Rapids mean for the month is 33.1° (-8.1°) If this were to hold until the end of the month this would be the 4^th coldest November at Grand Rapids. With some more milder days this week that may not hold. The 10^th coldest November was just last year with a mean of 34.6°.

Yesterday the H/L at Grand Rapids was 42/22. At this time with sunny skies the temperature is now up to 39 here at my house. For today the average H/L is 43/30. The record high is 66 in 1931. The record low is 11 in 1950. The most snow fall for the date is 9.7” in 2004. Last year the H/L was 47/42.