November 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Andie]

That says a great deal, Tom.

[westMJim]

Just finished up the 1st round of raking/cleaning the backyard. Popped inside to eat a hot bowl of fresh soup I made earlier in the morning to warm up and re-energize the batteries. Still have the front yard to get to. It seems like this year the leaves fell off a lot quicker than in recent years. I’d say my trees are about 60% bare today and in about 2 weeks or less they’ll all be gone. If that’s the case, then this would be around the Top 3 fastest “leaf out”, esp considering it’s before Thanksgiving.

Around my neck of the woods it is just the opposite. Here this is one of the later  leaf drop dates as in most years the leaves are mostly down by Halloween. And in Northern lower Michigan it is just after Columbus day. In the last 5 days we have lost a lot of leaves but there is still a good amount on the trees yet. If it gets as cold as expected next week they will be all down.

[Stacsh]

Not a great pattern for storms shaping up for November.

[hlcater]

Not sure if anyone has said it yet, but PivotalWeather has added a TON of new products for the ECMWF as well as 6hr intervals and regional maps. Gonna be *really* nice.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfcmslp&rh=2019110312&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

[OKwx2k4]

Not sure if anyone has said it yet, but PivotalWeather has added a TON of new products for the ECMWF as well as 6hr intervals and regional maps. Gonna be *really* nice.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfcmslp&rh=2019110312&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

Thank you for sharing that. It is very nice.

[Niko]

Just finished up the 1st round of raking/cleaning the backyard. Popped inside to eat a hot bowl of fresh soup I made earlier in the morning to warm up and re-energize the batteries. Still have the front yard to get to. It seems like this year the leaves fell off a lot quicker than in recent years. I’d say my trees are about 60% bare today and in about 2 weeks or less they’ll all be gone. If that’s the case, then this would be around the Top 3 fastest “leaf down”, esp considering it’s before Thanksgiving.

Thats what I told myself as well. A Harbinger of things to come this Winter???!!! The ol say saids, that if leaves fall off the trees fast, that means that a harsh Winter is coming.

[Niko]

Its 39F right now under mostly cloudy skies.

 

My forecast shows next week multiple chances of snowshowers. Temps remain in the 30s for highs and teens and 20s for lows.

[Niko]

NOAA:

A longwave in the subtropical jet swings out of the desert Southwest
into the southern Plains early Thursday. This spurs the development
of a surface low over the region that tracks northeast into the Ohio
Valley late Thursday. Latest model runs keep the low far enough
south that the bulk of precip stays in OH. There still could be some
light snow showers scattered across the CWA with the best chances
near the OH border. Any northward deviation in the low track could
bring more snow to SE MI. As the system progresses toward the east
coast, a phasing of the polar and subtropical jets occurs with the
left exit and right entrance aligning allowing for rapid
intensification of the surface low off the eastern seaboard. This
process creates a deepening trough in the polar jet that drives
south into OH late Thursday into Friday.

 

It seems that last year we had this issue w the storms passing just south of me and or north. Hope its not a repeat this year. 

[bud2380]

Not sure if anyone has said it yet, but PivotalWeather has added a TON of new products for the ECMWF as well as 6hr intervals and regional maps. Gonna be *really* nice.

 

This is INCREDIBLE! Super nice. I saw Weatherbell tweet that ECMWF relaxed some of their rules but didn’t realize this meant precip and snow maps for free. This is the best thing since sliced bread. Seriously I’m geeked out about this.

[jaster220]

[jaster220]

Just finished up the 1st round of raking/cleaning the backyard. Popped inside to eat a hot bowl of fresh soup I made earlier in the morning to warm up and re-energize the batteries. Still have the front yard to get to. It seems like this year the leaves fell off a lot quicker than in recent years. I’d say my trees are about 60% bare today and in about 2 weeks or less they’ll all be gone. If that’s the case, then this would be around the Top 3 fastest “leaf down”, esp considering it’s before Thanksgiving.

 

Trees in towns are now peaking nicely, while out in the open country there is more grey than color. I'd say one more week will about do it for the "color season" part of autumn. Then we'll be down to the stubborn stuff that either hangs onto dead leafs like the scrub oaks, or waits until their leafs are just frozen off the branches. 

[jaster220]

NOAA:

A longwave in the subtropical jet swings out of the desert Southwest

into the southern Plains early Thursday. This spurs the development

of a surface low over the region that tracks northeast into the Ohio

Valley late Thursday. Latest model runs keep the low far enough

south that the bulk of precip stays in OH. There still could be some

light snow showers scattered across the CWA with the best chances

near the OH border. Any northward deviation in the low track could

bring more snow to SE MI. As the system progresses toward the east

coast, a phasing of the polar and subtropical jets occurs with the

left exit and right entrance aligning allowing for rapid

intensification of the surface low off the eastern seaboard. This

process creates a deepening trough in the polar jet that drives

south into OH late Thursday into Friday.

 

It seems that last year we had this issue w the storms passing just south of me and or north. Hope its not a repeat this year. 

 

Ofc, that was a frustrating fact about last winter's pattern. We need to keep in mind tho, that had the last 2 storms (Olga and Halloween) hit in Jan or Feb, I'm pretty certain a good percentage of that qpf would've fallen as snow and/or mix. Meaning, we'd now be sitting on a healthy snow pack with numerous "refresher snows" in the pipeline via this clipper train. You and I would actually be sitting pretty attm enjoying continued action while others in this sub would be hoping something (anything) would end their boredom. We wouldn't even be jealous if this Thursday deal missed us and troubled the east coast with a little winter. We won't score every storm that comes along, but so far the new pattern (LRC developing) is looking impressive. I can't wait to see it with it's winter clothes on. 

[Niko]

Ofc, that was a frustrating fact about last winter's pattern. We need to keep in mind tho, that had the last 2 storms (Olga and Halloween) hit in Jan or Feb, I'm pretty certain a good percentage of that qpf would've fallen as snow and/or mix. Meaning, we'd now be sitting on a healthy snow pack with numerous "refresher snows" in the pipeline via this clipper train. You and I would actually be sitting pretty attm enjoying continued action while others in this sub would be hoping something (anything) would end their boredom. We wouldn't even be jealous if this Thursday deal missed us and troubled the east coast with a little winter. We won't score every storm that comes along, but so far the new pattern (LRC developing) is looking impressive. I can't wait to see it with it's winter clothes on. 

Cheers to an active Winter amigo!

[Tom]

Good Monday to you all!  I still have not adjusted to the time change and maybe one day in the near future we won't have to deal with it.  Does anyone else think there should be daylight savings??  Anyhow, in terms of our weather pattern, looks like a dominant NW Flow pattern is here to stay for a while.  This may be quite the dull and boring phase of the new LRC for some of us on here, but not as boring up near the Upper MW/GL's region where there have been multiple impulses along the jet stream.  With that being said, a decent snow event may be shaping up for parts of the region here on Wed/Thu.  

 

Here's the 00z Euro...

 

 

 

 

GFS...

 

[james1976]

GFS brings down a pretty good cold front with some frontal snows on the 10th but nothing too organized as far as a storm system.

[St Paul Storm]

1-3” in the point for tomorrow night. I think we’ll be on the lower end of that range seeing as though the models are drifting the impulse south. The trees in the yard are mostly bare, the leaves are mulched, the deck furniture has been put away. Time to settle in for a long winters nap.

[jaster220]

1-3” in the point for tomorrow night. I think we’ll be on the lower end of that range seeing as though the models are drifting the impulse south. The trees in the yard are mostly bare, the leaves are mulched, the deck furniture has been put away. Time to settle in for a long winters nap.

 

Raked some leafs from my front tree and mowed my ever-growing lawn yesterday during the brief few hours that conditions were ok for such. I'm a month from legit winter down here in the banana belt..

[OKwx2k4]

The rain threat is back in full force this week....

If this part of the pattern ever finds cold air later in the season, it would be amazing.

[Minny_Weather]

The rain threat is back in full force this week....

namconus_apcpn_us_28.png

If this part of the pattern ever finds cold air later in the season, it would be amazing.

Euro is wanting to make that a snow event up here.

[Hawkeye]

At this point I'm just waiting for my neighbor's giant oak tree to start dumping its leaves.  I always collect a bunch of them to cover non-hardy plants for winter and also build a stock of mulch for the compost bin.  I wouldn't mind a couple dry weeks.

[Clinton]

12z GFS has a quick shot of snow for several on here Thursday.

[james1976]

Not that we can trust it much but the GFS is quite active

[Clinton]

Not that we can trust it much but the GFS is quite active

Has a nice one on the 15th, I think Tom predicted one in that time frame.

[bud2380]

According to the GFS temps won't make it out of the 20s for late weekend into early next week for much of Iowa. Hard to tell on 6 hour maps, but much of the day is even locked into just the teens.  

[james1976]

According to the GFS temps won't make it out of the 20s for late weekend into early next week for much of Iowa. Hard to tell on 6 hour maps, but much of the day is even locked into just the teens.

DMX said pretty significant cold comin. Looks like there will be some snow or snow showers with it.

[jaster220]

12z GFS has a quick shot of snow for several on here Thursday.

 

Trend for the Mich-INdy-OH region is certainly friendly..

 

[Clinton]

Trend for the Mich-INdy-OH region is certainly friendly..

 

20191104 12z gfs_total_snow_us_fh84_trend (1).gif

Looks active between the 12th and the 20th.  Could that be the start of cycle 2 showing up at the end of the GFS run??????

[jaster220]

Has a nice one on the 15th, I think Tom predicted one in that time frame.

 

Actually a 1-2 punch over here, 14th N Stream wave, then the 15th looks like a more phased system. I think Niko's in Boston then, lock it in! 

[jaster220]

Trend for the Mich-INdy-OH region is certainly friendly..

 

20191104 12z gfs_total_snow_us_fh84_trend (1).gif

 

GFS via Pivotal out to h84 looks even more impressive..

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc&rh=2019110412&fh=84&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

[jaster220]

Looks active between the 12th and the 20th.  Could that be the start of cycle 2 showing up at the end of the GFS run??????

 

Tom to answer, lol. I think we're still determining the true length of the new LRC. He's been talking since summer about the Hudson Bay vortex and trough position. All that action we had in October was with a Long Wave trough to the west which make me wonder if we can even count that as part of cycle #1 or not? Maybe this period is the beginning of Cycle 1?  Or do we repeat this scenario all winter with the LW trough a bit west, then progressing east to Hudson's Bay? Hopefully, he will chime in with thoughts of his own.

[jaster220]

GRR thinking 1-3" for the northern portion of their CWA with the next clipper due Tues night.

 

GEM snowfall to 1 pm Wed agrees:

 

 

Inching closer to mby..

[East Dubzz]

Saw what you will about the time change... it is nice having the earlier model run times!

[jaster220]

Say what you will about the time change... it is nice having the earlier model run times!

 

Especially the new Euro Hi-res on Pivotal

 

12z GEM brings winter over next 240 hrs

 

[jaster220]

Amazing what happens when you "just add cold" into an active pattern! 

 

GFS's take on the same 240 hr period upcoming"

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Models continue to advertise a lot of active weather.  I try not to get to caught up on the particulars at this time, just showing a lot of cold and storminess in the extended periods.

[jaster220]

APX's morning AFD

 

 

 

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2019

...Start the Lake Effect Machine...

 

 

[bud2380]

Euro for the system mid week. 

 

[bud2380]

Euro agrees with the GFS.  We're heading towards the ice box.  For the forseeable future.  

[hlcater]

Euro agrees with the GFS.  We're heading towards the ice box.  For the forseeable future.  

 

Just imagine how much this pattern would pay dividends across the whole sub if this were 12/4 and not 11/4. It could continue, but there's almost certainly a pattern relaxation in the long range somewhere. We're not gonna get off the hook for this type of cold/snow in november. 

[Stacsh]

Lake Michigan is relatively warm.  This is great news where I am.   Cold and NW winds (clippers?) in November.  Snow will be piling up here.  Good luck to the rest.