November 2019 Observations and Discussion

[james1976]

Euro for the system mid week.

 

Not liking these near misses all the time

[jaster220]

Coldest start to November since 1991. 

 

Tid-bit here.

 

 

[jaster220]

Just imagine how much this pattern would pay dividends across the whole sub if this were 12/4 and not 11/4. It could continue, but there's almost certainly a pattern relaxation in the long range somewhere. We're not gonna get off the hook for this type of cold/snow in november. 

 

Yep, especially if the mean track were seasonally adjusted a bit south from where it is attm. 

[jaster220]

Lake Michigan is relatively warm.  This is great news where I am.   Cold and NW winds (clippers?) in November.  Snow will be piling up here.  Good luck to the rest.  

 

Dude! You're gonna be sooo buried this winter. We won't even see you posting you'll be so busy digging out  ;-)

[St Paul Storm]

Euro and GFS showing -20C 850s on Sunday. Per MPX that would be a record or near record for early November.

[jaster220]

GRR..

 

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 330 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2019

Two main thoughts on the forecast are we certainly are in an active
period and its going to be cold.

Lets start with the cold first...850mb temperatures over Grand
Rapids via both the ECMWF and the GFS are below Zero C the next 10
days! This is pretty hard to do in early November, but models have
been consistent with this. Highs will be in the 30s much of the next
7-10 days. We have highs in the 20s in spots next Monday. Overall,
can see us trending the forecast colder with time. 20s may be more
common for highs next weekend into early next week.

 

 

(This is when a reality check on endless summer happens for me personally - brrr)

[Niko]

12z GFS has a quick shot of snow for several on here Thursday.

Hopefully, it trends like this bud!

[Niko]

Actually a 1-2 punch over here, 14th N Stream wave, then the 15th looks like a more phased system. I think Niko's in Boston then, lock it in! 

[Niko]

Amazing what happens when you "just add cold" into an active pattern! 

 

GFS's take on the same 240 hr period upcoming"

 

20191104 12z GFS Snow h240.png

Bring it!

[Niko]

In the meantime, its a balmy 45F under partly cloudy skies.

[westMJim]

I am late on posting this but the power went out here at my house. According to Consumers Energy a animal got into a substation and caused the issue. Anyway I mulched the leaves and cut the grass yesterday while the grass and leaves were wet it was not all that bad of a day to do it. Here in my area there are still a lot of trees with leaves on them while there are trees that are bare many others like Oaks and Norway Maples and some other kind of Maple that seem to be late in dropping their leaves. While I do not have to deal with it one yard has some kind of what he says is a Pair tree and that tree keeps its leaves every fall into what seems like January. But that said having lived in Alpena and then Bay City where the leaves drop much earlier and in the case of Alpena where I lived in the woods I know that what one does not rake (or mulch) now can still be done in the spring. One more item, just because it looks to get cold and maybe snowy here in November that means nothing for the rest of the winter in fact more winters with a cold and snowy November ended up with much less now for the rest of the winter season.

[Minny_Weather]

Took this near Gaylord, MI yesterday.

[Niko]

Took this near Gaylord, MI yesterday.

Nice pic. BRRRRRR!!!! I got the chills just by looking at the pic.

[Niko]

I just looked at my forecast and my highs have a potential to be subfreezing or colder by weeks end and lows mainly in the teens. That is some real cold air coming!

[jaster220]

I just looked at my forecast and my highs have a potential to be subfreezing or colder by weeks end and lows mainly in the teens. That is some real cold air coming!

 

Flash-back of 5 yrs ago this month. I remember being under a Winter Storm Watch and was pumped for a pre-season storm. LES set-ups are very wind direction dependent tho, and sure enough winds never went fully west. Got grazed with an inch or two. A tough bust. Hoping for better this time around. 

[Niko]

Flash-back of 5 yrs ago this month. I remember being under a Winter Storm Watch and was pumped for a pre-season storm. LES set-ups are very wind direction dependent tho, and sure enough winds never went fully west. Got grazed with an inch or two. A tough bust. Hoping for better this time around. 

Yep, those LES bands need that perfect wind direction, otherwise, you end up screwed.

 

Lets see if Thursdays system trends a little further north.

[Niko]

Attm, still a balmy 48F under cloudy skies.

[snowstorm83]

00z GEFS seems pretty excited about the cold snap for early next week. -30 to -35 departures for much of the region. Also remains below average throughout the rest of the run. 

[Grizzcoat]

 I echo the idea of others that think this late OCT / early NOV cold spell with snow will retrograde to a wamer pattern (not sure on precip , but my idea is too warm for snow for most S of 43N)  in just not late NOV; but into a signifiacant chunk of DEC. Mid to late DEC on I think looks a repeat of what we just saw and are seeing though not to those extremes compared to AVG's. A deep snowcover for some may mitigate this but a return to above/ much above temp imo looks likely end of NOV into early/mid DEC for many reading this. My hope is this work it's self out of the system by the dead of winter but I have my personal thoughts it may go longer. No need for details at this point but I think a major rebound in the 2.5-5 week period. 

[Tom]

And the snows keep coming....WWA's issued for SE MN/S WI for 2-4" of snow...some places in Wisco are going to end up with close to 12" of seasonal snow following this system.  Here's a map showing the seasonal snow totals through 11/4:

 

[SE Wisconsin]

Interesting write up in the MKX AFD .

 

"The temps by Monday are looking brutal. Some of the raw
output from the models suggest lows in the single digits and highs
in the teens for Monday. Will not commit to those kinds of numbers
at this point, but we will could be close to record setting cold
if this comes to pass. The first part of November is shaping up to
be one of the top five coldest on record."

[Tom]

If the 00z GEFS are right, we could be talking historic cold for Veteran's Day and Week.  Overnight trends have upped the ante for a wintry system on 11/11-11/12 to form along the Arctic Front across the Plains/MW/GL's.  IF, this holds and lays down a snow cover, we may be seeing a vicious shot of Arctic air next week for Nov standards  The ensemble is showing subzero cold across the Upper MW and into parts of the MW mid next week!

 

Next Tuesday night lows...

 

 

Next Wed night lows...

 

[Tom]

00z GFS/GGEM through Friday...probably on the high end of what falls but the trend is there for a decent Nov snowfall...

 

 

 

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

One of the smaller lakes in the area was completely glazed over with ice this morning. To be honest I’d love for the snow to stay away for a while if it’s going to be as cold as forecasted. Good ice formation starts with super cold temps, no wind and no snow. If I can skate on the lake by early December that’s a win in my book.

[St Paul Storm]

Latest HRRR looks similar to the GEM and lays a pretty decent snow down in S MN. Looking like maybe 1” here, although the morning discussion indicates they really have no idea what’s going to happen with this system tonight.

[Andie]

Lots and lots of cloud cover for the next 3 days.

 

Thick fog this morning and 62*.

Rain tomorrow and Thursday.

Not much change in temps.

 

It's an Election Day here today, so lots of potential change on the horizon.

We have new machines in many counties that will provide a paper trail.

If it's an Election Day for you, remember to vote.

[Niko]

Partly sunny skies w temp at 41F.

[Andie]

I thought I'd post this here as a morale booster. Norway is seeing historic snowfall. Beating a 1922 record early.

This is from Ice Age Now and Robert Felix

 

Historical snow amounts in Norway

November 4, 2019

More snow on the way, and temperatures down to minus 29 degrees.

 

SNOW: 56 cm (almost 2 ft) of snow in Tromsø on Sunday morning.

 

Only once in the last 97 years has there been more snow on November 3 in Tromsø, says state meteorologist Sjur Wergeland.

 

The snow amounts are historical for November. In 2006, 67 cm of snow was measured on November 3.

 

The next top listing was in 1922. At that time 59 cm were measured on November 3.

[jaster220]

GRR's morning AFD snippit:

 

However an arctic front

will be dropping down from the northwest Saturday night. The
models are suggesting a wave will develop on the front as it
tracks through. Then for Sunday...impressive cold air advection
develops. With many of the models showing an arctic airmass
dropping in during the day on Sunday and persisting beyond
Monday...winter impacts look likely. Accumulating lake effect
snow...gusty winds with low visibility and well below freezing
temperatures will come together to lead to the impacts. Guidance
is showing bands of snow with connections into Lake Superior which
should enhance the impacts.

 

 

[Niko]

GRR's morning AFD snippit:

As for my area:

 

NOAA:

The surface reflection of low pressure ripples through Lower

Michigan Wednesday night and pushes the associated cold front into

the Ohio valley by Thursday morning. It is around this time that

Gulf moisture opens up into the southern Plains as larger scale

height falls occur within the upper level trough over the Midwest.

This leads to strong frontogenesis and a heavy axis of rainfall

across the TN and OH valleys. The uncertainty for SE Michigan lies

in how much precipitation can occur from the mid levels of the

frontal zone that remains overhead late Wednesday night through

Thursday morning. Model consensus is for a chance of rain changing

to snow south of I-69 to the Ohio border with a lean toward lighter

model QPF due to the very active surface front expected to our south.

[Hawkeye]

Models are pretty frisky with tonight's clipper snow event up in the MN/IA border area.  The NAM and HRRR are also now breaking out the snow farther south, so even the Cedar Rapids area gets a brief burst in the 11pm-midnight period.  The GFS and Euro do not have any snow down here.

 

[james1976]

Sometimes these set ups can over perform. Will be interesting to watch radar later.

 

How has the HRRR performed lately?

[jaster220]

The land of snow enchantment, where all you need is a cold breeze and voila! 

 

   

[jaster220]

Models are pretty frisky with tonight's clipper snow event up in the MN/IA border area.  The NAM and HRRR are also now breaking out the snow farther south, so even the Cedar Rapids area gets a brief burst in the 11pm-midnight period.  The GFS and Euro do not have any snow down here.

 

 

Despite how far south the snow is shown, the Globals manage to turn that into a complete whiff via WAA by the time it comes over my way. Shoulder season ftl 

[East Dubzz]

Sometimes these set ups can over perform. Will be interesting to watch radar later.

 

How has the HRRR performed lately?

As always, it's hit or miss. It'll do terrible a few storms in a row.. but then the one time you discount it, it'll get something right. Tonight's snow potential seems to just be one where looking at the radar is the best option. 

[jaster220]

However, after the real-deal arctic front hits Sunday, the GFS has me on the threshold of 4" by Monday night via LES

 

 

 

[bud2380]

Euro tonight.  Looks good for Decorah, IA.  

 

[Minny_Weather]

GFS shows numerous storms. I'm at either the far Southern or Northern edge for each of those (including lake effect/enhancement) and I end up with a whopping inch at the end of the run. Same story with Euro except fewer systems.

[james1976]

Euro tonight. Looks good for Decorah, IA.

 

Dang not a single flake here

[Niko]

However, after the real-deal arctic front hits Sunday, the GFS has me on the threshold of 4" by Monday night via LES

 

20191105 6z GFS Snow h144.png

2-3inch for me. I'll accept!