November 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

I just did some yardwork and man, it feels nice out, even at 42F. Its breezy though. WCF at 33F.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro puts me into a never-ending deep freeze starting at the beginning of next week.

[MIKEKC]

Any snow heading towards the KC area with these cold shots??

 

We scored two minor accumulating snows last week with the second one dropping 2 inches causing a crazy Halloween morning...wrecks everywhere and highways shut down at times.

[Niko]

Deep Freeze coming for a lot of peeps on here (that is for November standards). Just hope it does not mock up December!!!!!! or even beyond that.

[Clinton]

Any snow heading towards the KC area with these cold shots??

 

We scored two minor accumulating snows last week with the second one dropping 2 inches causing a crazy Halloween morning...wrecks everywhere and highways shut down at timeseModels 

Models are off and on right now with a possible storm between the 11th and 15th.

[Niko]

Models are off and on right now with a possible storm between the 11th and 15th.

Hopefully we get a storm while we are in the deep freeze. Cant stand it when its cold and dry. UGH! Definitely need to see some white on the ground  at the same time you are experiencing BN temps. My forecast shows all of next week dry and very chilly.

 

Watch when it warms up, we get all of the perfect storm tracks and soak us w December rains.

[Hawkeye]

HRRR is not budging from its forecast of a solid southeastward extension of the snow band early tonight.

 

Meanwhile, the 18z NAM has dropped it and looks more like the Euro.  The HRRR is on its own.

 

[hlcater]

It’s probably right. WAA wings tend to end up farther south than modeled, generally at least.

[FarmerRick]

Looks pretty dry around here for the next couple weeks and I'm just fine with that. 

 

The farmers need a break to finish harvesting.

 

[Stacsh]

Yikes.  Cold and no big storminess in the long range.  I'd rather it be warmer in November if that's the case.  Might get some above average sun though, which would be nice in Michigan.  As we say goodbye to the sun usually for 6 months.  

[jaster220]

GFS shows numerous storms. I'm at either the far Southern or Northern edge for each of those (including lake effect/enhancement) and I end up with a whopping inch at the end of the run. Same story with Euro except fewer systems.

 

was trying not to mention..

[jaster220]

It’s probably right. WAA wings tend to end up farther south than modeled, generally at least.

 

Updated futurecast maps. Looks like CR gets moisture, just not sure if it's SN? 

 

 

Meanwhile, over my way, the teasing shall continue. Literally a "white curtain" sets up a county or so north. Upper level WAA the culprit per AFD disco. 

 

[jaster220]

  GEM with 4 FEET of LES at SWMI shoreline in next 10 days. Won't happen, but whatever does happen may be worth a short drive to see/experience. 

 

[Hawkeye]

The HRRR finally caved and removed the southward extension of the snow tonight, so it looks like a nadaburger here.

[St Paul Storm]

Looking like I won’t see much snow here now either. Almost every single model keeps all the snow one county to the south. Funny how that works. But it’s all good....because it’s only Nov 5. People are getting antsy that there are no storms showing up on the models. But how often do we usually track snowstorms in Nov? Not very often.

[jaster220]

Looking like I won’t see much snow here now either. Almost every single model keeps all the snow one county to the south. Funny how that works. But it’s all good....because it’s only Nov 5. People are getting antsy that there are no storms showing up on the models. But how often do we usually track snowstorms in Nov? Not very often.

 

Actually, pretty often, just in the last 1/3 of the month. Like last year's Bliz for example. You are very correct in reminding it's ONLY 5 Nov. And I'll remind myself via this surface map from Nov 2013 which looks too much like this coming first blast of winter that we don't have to score big early to end up with a great winter. Notice the huge swath of heavy snow south and east thru N New England while there's a little blip of heavy snow off of Lk Michigan in far SWMI. Pretty much the same thing models are painting over the next 5 days. 

 

[Niko]

Yikes.  Cold and no big storminess in the long range.  I'd rather it be warmer in November if that's the case.  Might get some above average sun though, which would be nice in Michigan.  As we say goodbye to the sun usually for 6 months.  

I noticed that. Too many cloudy days.

[Niko]

Attm, its 32F under clear skies. Falling into the 20s tanite.

[Niko]

Very cold air next week arrives w highs for mby not getting outta the 20s and lows 10-15F. The only bummer is that next week is bone-dry.

[Niko]

A deep reservoir of high planetary potential vorticity is in place
over virtually all of northern North America this afternoon. Raob
analysis from this morning captured a strong +130 knot upper level
jet streak digging down the rearward face of the trough, impinging
down into the northern Plains. The jet axis is forecasted to pivot
to a zonal configuration by Wednesday morning. Interesting fact
about upcoming setup is the wavelength of the trough is so broad
that the typical subgeostrophic region to the trough base is non-
existent here locally. The rocking motion to the jetstreak is
expected to result in very strong and pervasive frontogenetic
forcing along the 850-600mb frontal zone that will be over the
northern CWA. Thus far, intra and inter model consistency has been
less than ideal which has brought a considerable amount of
uncertainty the Wednesday and Wednesday night precipitation forecast.
The main driver for the sensible weather forecast Wednesday the
magnitude of system relative isentropic ascent that will occur along
the 291-296k thetae surface beginning at roughly 18Z Wednesday and
continuing to around 09Z Thursday morning. The significant challenge
that exists with this forecast is predicting the amount of
lift/ascent that will occur along the sharp/upright midlevel frontal
boundary. This is not an easy call as latest 18Z NAM run is showing
more parallel system relative flow trajectories than the previous
12Z run. Just a remark on the lack of consistency. The big negative
is the lack of coherent deep thermal circulation riding along the
frontal boundary. The impressive aspect is the amount of system
moisture that will be available as upwards of 3.0 to 4.0 g/kg will
lift into far southern portions of the state by Wednesday afternoon.
Additional uncertain aspects of the forecast exist, notably... a
very dry antecedent airmass in the lowest 5000 ft agl and what the
efficiency of snow accumulations be with models adamant at surface
wet bulb temperatures reaching and exceeding the freezing mark. Do
respect the cold sounding and given the 12Z model trends for QPF -
long run of the RAP going at .40 liquid, did increase PoPs into the
high likely for snow with total accumulations Wednesday/Wednesday
night reaching 1.5 to 2.0 inches of snow. The failure point, and
could be a fairly dramatic one, is if system relative flow
trajectories are not orthogonal to the frontal slope that UVVs do
not develop.

[Tom]

The radar is looking nice across S MN into S WI...3-6" looks like a good bet...the snow should stick around for a few days this time so that'll be nice for you guys up north to enjoy.

[Tom]

The LR clues were being advertised long ago that mid-winter season cold would be on the way this month.  A historic cold wave is being forecast around here as a very strong early season Arctic attack settles in that may knock down a 100+ year old record on Veteran's Day. #JanuaryLevelChill

 

 

[Tom]

Gosh, there is so much to discuss in the wx dept that I can't focus on one thing this morning!  Well, where do we begin???  I've long believe there would be a storm between the 11th-15th and last nights 00z GEFS flashed a similar trend and a similar storm track we have already seen.  Take a look at the animation below.  Haven't we seen this before???  Yup, in late October and our Halloween storm system whereby we had energy track from CO down into the deep South and then shoot up N/NE into the OHV.  

 

As it stands now, the 00z GEFS have this storm going up along the EC but the trends have been shifting this farther west.  In fact, the model is showing more widespread snow potential across the Plains/MW/GL's.

 

 

 

 

The 48hr MSLP trend is looking better...hopefully this system transpires in future runs....

 

 

 

[Tom]

There has been some discussion on when we may be seeing LRC cycle # 2 begin.  I'd like to add my thoughts on this and where the pattern may be heading later this month.  We began this year's cycle with a SW ridge along with a SER and as it stands now, we are not seeing this pattern in the modeling just yet.  However, if you look at the 30mb animation below, in the last images the warming that is ongoing in the SW U.S. and into the central/eastern U.S. is a signal to look for a SER in 2-3 weeks which will place us right around Thanksgiving week or just before then.  It's hard for me to put an exact date but I'll try and challenge myself to say around the 11/22-11/25 period is when we start LRC cycle #2.

 

 

 

How do you set the table for record cold????  You ask nature to lay down the "white gold" and this is exactly what Mother Nature has done over the last several weeks.  For the most part, all of Canada is covered by snow.  Kuddos to the CFS for consistently advertising this weeks/months ago.

 

 

 

 

Not only is the snow cover quite expansive, it is growing deeper where it counts and that is up across NW NAMER....where the LRC pattern has time and time again developed Arctic HP's that slide S/SE into the lower 48.

 

 

 

[Tom]

What's on the table in the extended is just an amazing feat to what nature can do if all the variables line up (which they are this season).  If you think it's going to get cold next week, by the middle of the month I'm seeing signs of even colder air to invade the lower 48.  Considering the fact that most of us will not have any snow OTG during this Arctic blast, by then, most of the northern Sub should have snow OTG (I expect) before the next surge of Arctic Air hits.  #Relentless surges of cold are coming and I don't see anything stopping it over the next couple weeks.  This is a pattern that can lock and be remembered of how a "Legendary" season began.  #IceAgeWinter...just the beginning...

[Clinton]

Very cold air next week arrives w highs for mby not getting outta the 20s and lows 10-15F. The only bummer is that next week is bone-dry.

Lets see if next week really is going to be bone dry, the Euro is starting to come around 

[Tom]

When your in "sync" with the Universe, the synchronicities shine...I just happened to read this article and it mimics what I just posted about Canada...amazingess

 

https://electroverse.net/practically-all-of-canada-is-covered-in-snow/

[james1976]

Des Moines NWS with a pretty interesting write up regarding the coming cold blast:

 

The big story in the extended remains the arrival of an Arctic

boundary arriving late Saturday night into Sunday leading to falling

temperatures through the day and culminating in 850 mb temperatures

of -20C over Iowa by Monday. MOS guidance temperatures out in this

period remain too climate influenced and thus are too warm.

Factoring in the cold temperatures aloft and any mixing potential,

high temperatures in the teens and 20s are likely. High temperatures

Monday will be near record low Max temperatures. As discussed in

Tuesday mornings discussion, during the Great Blue Norther of 1911

and the Armistice Day Blizzard of 1940, the coldest days occurred on

November 12th and 13th during those events. Current forecast highs

for the 12th is still within the top 5 record cold behind

1911,1919,1940 and 1986.

[Money]

Quite the LE signal showing up on the GEM in 6-7 days already. 12+ across Door county to Sheboygan

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=ncus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019110600&fh=144

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019110600&fh=180&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_024h&m=gdps

[westMJim]

With clear skies for much of the night the low here at my house reached 22° At this time it looks like the official low at the airport will be 25° This is the first hard freeze (below 28°) this season and wow there is a tree in my front yard that had all of it leaves on it yesterday and that tree lost ALL of its leaves overnight. Boy what a mess of leave for me to clean up now. And of course there is now a trace of snow on the ground with some light snow falling and the temperature is at 31

[Andie]

Another slightly warmish morning with thick fog. Lots of rain coming in over the next 2 days.

That's okay with us.

Temps in the 60's, overcast.

[westMJim]

At this time there is light snow falling here with a good trace on the ground and the current temperature is at 31

It looks like the official low for the overnight at GRR will be 25° it got all the way down to 22 here at my house. And that brought down all the leave on the tree in my front yard (old news LOL) The H/L at GRR yesterday was 43/27 (that low of 27 was just before midnight) For today the average H/L at Grand Rapids is 52/36 the record high for today is 64 set in 1924 and the record low is 9 set in 1951 (so yes it can and has gotten very cold in early November) last year the H/L was 21/43.

[Niko]

Lets see if next week really is going to be bone dry, the Euro is starting to come around 

Hope so! Hate to see all of this cold air go to waste w/o a beautiful snowcover laying around. If this trough can go a little more west, then, this would help out a lot.

[Niko]

It got quite cold last nite w temps falling to 23F.

 

Attm, its partly cloudy w temps at 33F. A  little light snow tanite into tomorrow morning could whiten up the ground.

[Niko]

Now, what is that by Cleveland, OH!!?? 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Des Moines NWS with a pretty interesting write up regarding the coming cold blast:

 

The big story in the extended remains the arrival of an Arctic

boundary arriving late Saturday night into Sunday leading to falling

temperatures through the day and culminating in 850 mb temperatures

of -20C over Iowa by Monday. MOS guidance temperatures out in this

period remain too climate influenced and thus are too warm.

Factoring in the cold temperatures aloft and any mixing potential,

high temperatures in the teens and 20s are likely. High temperatures

Monday will be near record low Max temperatures. As discussed in

Tuesday mornings discussion, during the Great Blue Norther of 1911

and the Armistice Day Blizzard of 1940, the coldest days occurred on

November 12th and 13th during those events. Current forecast highs

for the 12th is still within the top 5 record cold behind

1911,1919,1940 and 1986.

This is going to be very impressive in terms of November historical cold.

[OKwx2k4]

When your in "sync" with the Universe, the synchronicities shine...I just happened to read this article and it mimics what I just posted about Canada...amazingess

 

https://electroverse.net/practically-all-of-canada-is-covered-in-snow/

That's a pretty awesome thing to see. Snowiest ever is a pretty cool way to start off a northern hemisphere cold season.

[CentralNebWeather]

Cold front has moved through quicker than advertised with a low cloud deck.  Sitting at 30 degrees with winds gusting 25-35 MPH with higher gusts expected.  It has that winter feel in the air for sure.

[St Paul Storm]

Current forecast has a high on Monday of 17F. Lows in the single digits early next week. Walking around the yard yesterday I can tell that soil temps are really taking a hit. The ground is already getting hard. These incoming temps are really going to do work without any snow cover.

[james1976]

Current forecast has a high on Monday of 17F. Lows in the single digits early next week. Walking around the yard yesterday I can tell that soil temps are really taking a hit. The ground is already getting hard. These incoming temps are really going to do work without any snow cover.

Did all the snow stay south of you last night?