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November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

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Here comes a pattern reset?

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Night shift

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Not really november related, but one thing I find interesting about this year is the fact February and October have been outstandingly cold months (both top 10%) while the rest of the months this year have largely been above normal.  Kind of an odd arrangement.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Not really november related, but one thing I find interesting about this year is the fact February and October have been outstandingly cold months (both top 10%) while the rest of the months this year have largely been above normal.  Kind of an odd arrangement.

Yeah, and the first two weeks of March were INSANE too. Cold, snow! Who saw that coming? No one.

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Yesterdays Halloween weather was outstanding (Tigard Or)

59* degree afternoon 

a sliver of the moon during sunset

40s for trick or treating 

85 treaters showed up between the hours of 6-9......par for the course out here unless on the weekend 

 

Are you sure Tigard was close to 60? I can't find any official station in the metro area or the Willamette Valley that even cracked 55 yesterday.

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Lows this morning were colder than forecast, but not surprising with a cool dry low level airmass still in place. Some impressive 5 minute obs this morning, we'll see at 11 what the official lows were.

 

PDX  30

SLE 28

EUG 27

 

Bit of an inversion developing, I only made it down to 32 briefly. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Salem ended with a monthly mean of 49.3, easily blowing by 1969 for 4th coldest October on record. 7 freezes and a -3.9 departure. 

 

Eugene 49.4, 9 freezes, -3.3 departure

 

Portland 51.5, 2 freezes, -3.4 departure

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Lows this morning were colder than forecast, but not surprising with a cool dry low level airmass still in place. Some impressive 5 minute obs this morning, we'll see at 11 what the official lows were.

 

PDX 30

SLE 28

EUG 27

 

Bit of an inversion developing, I only made it down to 32 briefly.

I could actually imagine the first 5-7 day’s of November ending up a little below average, with cool, dry air in place at the surface and chilly mornings. Afternoons don’t look outlandishly warm at this point.

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I could actually imagine the first 5-7 day’s of November ending up a little below average, with cool, dry air in place at the surface and chilly mornings. Afternoons don’t look outlandishly warm at this point.

 

That is true. Today should manage some decent departures. November is a month, weather wise I usually just want to get through. It has probably snowed in the valley more in March than November during my lifetime.  

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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That is true. Today should manage some decent departures. November is a month, weather wise I usually just want to get through. It has probably snowed in the valley more in March than November during my lifetime.

I like November. Summer too. No need to rush through lyfe.

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Are you sure Tigard was close to 60? I can't find any official station in the metro area or the Willamette Valley that even cracked 55 yesterday.

i was getting pretty warm out there during the Halloween setup so just did a quick wunderground check and went by the first station that it latched onto in my area.  Didn’t question it as it felt that warm!  Do I need to lawyer up? Dewey!!!

A6D0AE0E-506C-43D6-A902-15DAA79FBC0C.jpeg

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Given the nature of this case/the respective biases being presented, I have no doubt in my mind he’ll represent you. ;)

 

Given temp profiles everywhere else, I highly doubt it was close to 60 yesterday at that location, though. Sounds like an overexposed reading.

I  agree, I usually do some poking around to verify a reading but my focus was showtime ready for the kids and parents.  Chemistry class flashback! My number is out of whack with the +/- of the rest of the class......ugh....after school again to rework the experiment and numbers lol

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Tim will like the 12z GFS.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The other scenario that could play out over the next 6-8 weeks is the cold east/warm west situation is replaced with strong zonal flow and a coast to coast blow torch.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Thanksgiving.

It’s practically December this year!!

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Given that pretty much half the people in my office have been out for most of the past two months due to various illnesses and injury, I have decided to take the week between Christmas and New Year's off. Really hope we get blasted. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The other scenario that could play out over the next 6-8 weeks is the cold east/warm west situation is replaced with strong zonal flow and a coast to coast blow torch.

That’s probably the least likely outcome, in my view. There are no years with impotent, under-developed jets at this point in the seasonal cycle on the low pass that went on to become zonal years.

 

Of course, there are always intraseasonal cycles, and there’s a (relatively) zonal period coming up for mid-Nov, but that’s an aberration from the background state.

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