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November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

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A Coug does not willingly go to a Huskies game unless its the Apple Cup, what is wrong with that kid?

He wants to hang out with his brother and see his new life in college. :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It's funny, I was just thinking I would take a foggy, drizzly few days just to shake things up. Day after day of sunshine gets boring.

 

Gradients go flatter later in the weekend into early next week, so maybe we will luck out and see some foggy days, or at least foggy, drizzly mornings.

Tim’s head just exploded.

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That's an insane air mass the GFS has for the middle of the country days 9-10.

And mid-November is the most “zonal” subseasonal period, with a +EAMT and modest jet extension (which might not even reach the PNW, or barely so).

 

Could be the GFS rushing the progression, but if you want big cold, just wait until the rubber band snaps back with the flip to -EAMT, AAM is removed from the atmosphere, and the East Asian jet retracts. Gonna be a wavebreaking party in late November.

 

No semi-permanent Baffin vortex in sight right now..the next two weeks are the closest we’ll get to that for awhile, and it’s still very displaced.

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This is, in part, a response to the activation of the MJO (or its emergence over the dominating IOD signal which has been inhibiting its regular emergence out of the IO).

 

It crosses the Maritime Continent over the next 10 days producing a trade wind burst, then propagates out over the warm pool/dateline, at which point constructive interference with the background state resumes, culminating in what should be two WWBs, the second one being displaced eastward.

 

The CFS doesn’t represent this very well, but here’s the 850mb projection.

 

DdonR37.png

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What a gorgeous day.   Almost 60 here and sunny with a very light east wind.

 

Doing some leaf blowing in shorts and a t-shirt and actually getting warm.     Can't ask for much more on a November weekend.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Anyone know what happened around Thanksgiving that year?

My 9yr old self prepared to eat turkey and walk on a frozen Lake Goodwin while my parents were sidetracked with said turkey.
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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My 9yr old self prepared to eat turkey and walk on a frozen Lake Goodwin while my parents were sidetracked with said turkey.

It was cloudy and cold at my grandma’s house (she’s dead). Two days later there was eight inches of snow (Rod Hill). Two days later the church by my house burned down during an ice storm (haha Jesus).

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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