November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Requiem]

Still a lot of potential though, and a big Central Oregon/Cascades snowstorm this run!

[BLI snowman]

 

Newflash, weather channel calling for PSCZ snow.

 

 

Mukilteo, WA 10 Day Weather

7:25 pm PST

 

Mukilteo, WA 10 Day Weather

7:25 pm PST

Print

DAY

 

DESCRIPTION HIGH / LOW PRECIP WIND HUMIDITY

TONIGHT

 

NOV 19

Partly Cloudy

--38^°

10%

N 6 mph 84%

WED

 

NOV 20

Sunny

47^°34^°

10%

N 5 mph 72%

THU

 

NOV 21

Sunny

48^°34^°

10%

NNE 4 mph 67%

FRI

 

NOV 22

Partly Cloudy

46^°37^°

10%

SSE 4 mph 78%

SAT

 

NOV 23

PM Showers

47^°43^°

50%

SSE 11 mph 81%

SUN

 

NOV 24

Showers

47^°38^°

40%

SW 7 mph 84%

MON

 

NOV 25

Showers

43^°36^°

40%

SE 6 mph 84%

TUE

 

NOV 26

Rain/Snow Showers

42^°37^°

50%

SE 10 mph 80%

WED

 

NOV 27

Showers

41^°36^°

40%

NE 10 mph 82%

THU

 

NOV 28

Rain/Snow Showers

42^°36^°

40%

SSE 8 mph 82%

FRI

 

NOV 29

Rain/Snow Showers

42^°37^°

40%

SSE 7 mph 84%

SAT

 

NOV 30

Showers

42^°37^°

50%

SE 7 mph 84%

SUN

 

DEC 1

Showers

43^°37^°

40%

S 9 mph 86%

MON

 

DEC 2

Showers

43^°37^°

50%

SSE 7 mph 83%

TUE

 

DEC 3

Showers

42^°36^°

40%

SSE 7 mph 82%

 

 

 

Almost December already.... crazy.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS wasn't bad, not too shabby.... Not too awful. Not very terrible.

[Deweydog]

[Gradient Keeper]

Notable changes over the past 4 GFS runs. Offshore ridge trending stronger and the cutoff off California diving further west. Heights building quicker over North Pacific, Aleutian ridge nosing in sooner. Day 5-6 Ridge merger sooner. Rooting for the Ensembles to largely agree Days 4-7.

 

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 11 minutes

[Deweydog]

Thanksgiving.

[TT-SEA]

Thanksgiving.

 

 

Dry?

 

[TT-SEA]

In fact... the 00Z GFS is basically dry up here from Monday evening through the rest of the week.   

 

I have not been tracking all the details of GFS run... but it seems like previous runs had way more storms.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Pattern sets up Day 5 to 5.5 ..

[Omegaraptor]

 

Of course, no precipitation.

[Gradient Keeper]

In fact... the 00Z GFS is basically dry up here from Monday evening through the rest of the week.   

 

I have not been tracking all the details of GFS run... but it seems like previous runs had way more storms.

Yeah. About that. It's pretty good. 1000-500mb thickness and 850 maps are fun.

[Gradient Keeper]

 

Of course, no precipitation.

What?

 

Before Day 7

 

Day 7

[Omegaraptor]

What?

 

Before Day 7

 

Day 7

 

No precipitation when it actually matters given the cold front shown on the 00z GFS*

[Phil]

In fact... the 00Z GFS is basically dry up here from Monday evening through the rest of the week.

 

I have not been tracking all the details of GFS run... but it seems like previous runs had way more storms.

Gonna be funny watching the models flip flop this into yet another -EPO pattern (maybe more STJ this go around).

[TT-SEA]

I will gladly take some cold sunshine for Thanksgiving.

[FroYoBro]

Looks chilly. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 6 not quite there due to nagging cut-off low over top of block. That's why the offshore ridge/Aleutian merger occurring as soon as possible is critical.

 

[Deweydog]

[TT-SEA]

****TIM APPROVES OF DRY WEATHER****

 

 

00Z GFS is really dry up here.   Only precip is on Sunday and Monday.

 

Some serious east wind cranking by late in the holiday weekend and into the next week though!

[Requiem]

That's a cold cold run, wow. Some very exciting temps past hour 150! Not to mention that nice little storm on the 26th (looks to involve something, whether it be snow, wind, or rain).

[TT-SEA]

Lip chapping weather...

 

[Front Ranger]

Notable changes over the past 4 GFS runs. Offshore ridge trending stronger and the cutoff off California diving further west. Heights building quicker over North Pacific, Aleutian ridge nosing in sooner. Day 5-6 Ridge merger sooner. Rooting for the Ensembles to largely agree Days 4-7.

 

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 11 minutes

 

Yeah, massive improvement in the 6-9 day period over the past 24 hours.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Something brewing...

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 7

 

[Front Ranger]

I will gladly take some cold sunshine for Thanksgiving.

 

Personally, I will only give thanks if I get the weather I want.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow that 00z is no joke. 

[MossMan]

Lip chapping weather...

 

I see a red squiggly line around western Washington. Red means hot! Not cold! Might be a little breezy around your house through!

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS shows 14 out of the next 16 days being dry here. Not what I expected after being so dry overall over the last few weeks.

[MossMan]

Down to 37.

[Deweydog]

Dry.

[Gradient Keeper]

12/1

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

Could be a January like 1953 or 2006 coming if this unusually dry weather continues. Might need to plan accordingly!

[Phil]

Could be a January like 1953 or 2006 coming if this unusually dry weather continues. Might need to plan accordingly!

Probably not gonna happen. That month might be one of the coldest for the US since the 1970s/80s.

 

Maybe the spigot turns on in February?

[Deweydog]

Wet.

[Gradient Keeper]

Unfortunately the GEFS says, NOPE! ...Day 5-6 is nowhere remotely close to the Operational run. Darn.... Dang

[Front Ranger]

00Z GFS shows 14 out of the next 16 days being dry here. Not what I expected after being so dry overall over the last few weeks.

 

With 1.51" now on the month, SEA has successfully passed both 1976 and 1952 in wetness. 1956 will fall this weekend, and then if 1979's 1.94" can be surpassed, they'll be safely into good analog territory.

 

Of course, as has been discussed, if you go further back past the airport era, several of the driest Novembers preceded excellent winters: 1936, 1929, 1922.

[Requiem]

Unfortunately the GEFS says, NOPE! ...Day 5-6 is nowhere remotely close to the Operational run. Darn.... Dang

 

I'm sure it's wetter than the operational, though, which is a plus.

[Front Ranger]

Could be a January like 1953 or 2006 coming if this unusually dry weather continues. Might need to plan accordingly!

 

Very unlikely we see a fire hose jet this winter. At least for any lengthy period of time like those years.

[Phil]

Unfortunately the GEFS says, NOPE! ...Day 5-6 is nowhere remotely close to the Operational run. Darn.... Dang

The 00z GEFS looks much improved to me..

 

Sharper wavetrain upstream..can see the loading pattern for the next -EPO over the NW-Pacific. And still plenty of cool air in the West with a -NAO holding it in place while we wait for the EPO.