November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

Crazy considering the stellar mountain snow pattern we have been in the last 2-3 weeks.

I was up here 2 weeks ago and the passes were bare so that has fallen in the past 2 weeks.

[Esquimalt]

Just drove up to the Okanagan. Pretty sad looking snow in the mountain passes. Barely even a trace around the 4000ft level. Looked like maybe 4” or so around the 5000-5500ft level. Looked like the smaller lakes were starting to freeze up above the 4000ft level.

With this upcoming "cold snap", do you think highs of 3 lows of -2 are a good bet here in town? 

[TT-SEA]

Nice brown haze over Seattle... that has to make the polluted inversion enthusiasts happy. As long as it's not wildfire smoke... it's awesome!

 

[stuffradio]

I was up here 2 weeks ago and the passes were bare so that has fallen in the past 2 weeks.

I went to Kelowna for a week in the last week of October and they were bare.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Nice brown haze over Seattle... that has to make the polluted inversion enthusiasts happy. As long as it's not wildfire smoke... it's awesome!

 

Too warm. Needs fog.

[ShawniganLake]

With this upcoming "cold snap", do you think highs of 3 lows of -2 are a good bet here in town?

Could end up there after mid week. Tough to say how cold the lower level outflow will end up by the end of the week. Highs upper 30s to around 40 seem like a good bet. Wind sheltered areas will be much colder than -2C at night though.

[Jbolin]

Too warm. Needs fog.

There's still plenty south of OLM, Chehalis has been socked in all day. 

 

 

[Jbolin]

Nice brown haze over Seattle... that has to make the polluted inversion enthusiasts happy. As long as it's not wildfire smoke... it's awesome!

 

Don't worry, the fog will reform and envelop the cam thus rendering your gripe moot. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

56/29 at SLE today. 

 

So +3 total on the forecast. They will need to make some of that up in the next 10 days if they wish to finish the month below average. 

[TT-SEA]

Don't worry, the fog will reform and envelop the cam thus rendering your gripe moot.

No... its still brown and smoggy now. That is nice to see.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

54F for now.  If we don't get any warmer, the 54/27 spread will get us our first negative departure since Nov 7. A roughly -2F departure.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

-2 departure at SLE today.

[High Desert Mat?]

Nice to see the 18z op was a warm outlier too. Cold 00z runs tonight. If not, I’m shaving my head.

[ShawniganLake]

I went to Kelowna for a week in the last week of October and they were bare.

It is chilly here in Penticton, though. Below freezing already at 4pm.

[Kayla]

Block is also slightly further east on the 18z ECMWF compared to the 12z at the same time.

 

[Jbolin]

Nice to see the 18z op was a warm outlier too. Cold 00z runs tonight. If not, I’m shaving my head.

OH MAN, I want pics of that show dude!

[MossMan]

Excerpt from NWS Seattle AFD this afternoon:

 

Given this cold...but drier...trend in the

models...any earlier prognostications of the white stuff may have

been made in earnest.

 

Guess it's time to stick a fork in it, folks! Nothing to see here.

We need JAYA to come out of retirement for this upcoming event!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Yes, Esquimalt gave the right URL http://forums.bcstorms.ca. There's a long story about that weatherpage forum being shutdown and I won't get into it publicly.

Nice forum, you got a lot of members. Does anybody from Washington or Oregon post there?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z EURO!

[Jbolin]

We need JAYA to come out of retirement for this upcoming event!

Better chance of Jesse and Dewey signing a peace treaty

[Frontal Snowsquall]

18z GEFS PDX Mean temp -8c. Yakima -12c with large cluster -10c to -15c. Not bad.

Hopefully it will trend colder as we get closer.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z runs will be colder! MBG Money Back Guarantee!

 

00z GFS in 3 hours 49 minutes

00z GEFS in 5 hous 21 minutes

00z GEM in 4 hours 11 minutes

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 6 minutes

00z EPS in 8 hours 50 minutes

I like the sound of that! Let's go cold and snow! ❄

[Dave]

I just noticed that the NWS, at least the pdx office, is now posting what they believe to be the snow level on the local forecast. Pretty cool.

[Blizzard777]

I’m afraid the radio news folks (PDX) said it will snow next Wednesday here so your just gonna have to deal with it. 
heard it with my own ears

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I just noticed that the NWS, at least the pdx office, is now posting what they believe to be the snow level on the local forecast. Pretty cool.

 

Yes indeed

 

From NWS PDX:

 

Sunday night through Thanksgiving Day...The

unseasonable doldrums which have dominated much of November across

SW Washington and NW Oregon appear to give way to a significantly

more active pattern as we head into early next week. Beyond the

first front expected to move through the forecast area Sunday,

additional shortwave energy will move through for more precipitation

through Monday. Meanwhile, snow levels will be lowering as flow

aloft turns more northwesterly, likely lowering below the passes

Sunday night then remaining there through much, if not all, of

Thanksgiving week. Therefore by Monday one can expect to encounter

wintry travel across the Cascades, with snow levels lowering into

the foothills Monday and Monday night as a large upper level trough

carves out over the Pac NW.

 

Attention then turns to the low pressure system shown by many

models/ensembles rounding the base of said upper trough and moving

into the West Coast, mainly Tuesday. There are still enormous

differences between members regarding the evolution of this system,

with the range of landfall solutions extending from Vancouver Island

to south of San Francisco and solutions for the low's intensity

ranging from sub-960 mb to around 1000 mb as it moves onshore. Given

the cold air pushing down with the upper trough, and the potential

for the low to come onshore to the south of all or part of the

forecast area, this system will need to be watched for the potential

for low elevation snow north of the low. That said, no single

solution can be trusted (nor discounted) at this point, especially

given the variance between guidance. For now, we continued to trend

our forecast colder, with snow levels generally around 2000 feet

Tuesday then down to 1000-1500 feet by Wednesday. Longer range

guidance appears to be in decent agreement that the upper trough

will park over the Pac NW through Thanksgiving, with scattered

showers and possibly even a few flurries reaching down to the lowest

elevations. Weagle

[stuffradio]

Nice forum, you got a lot of members. Does anybody from Washington or Oregon post there?

Two people joined just today from south of the border. No one else otherwise.

[Dave]

TWL, I was referring to the forecast itself, but it's nice to see it on the AFD as well.

[Blizzard777]

Yeah, once we do finally "score" it will feel much better knowing all the suffering we went through. It will make it more special.

 

What I hate is the final few hours prior to the snow event and then it’s snatched away or goes around you!!! 

That’s when I suffer a very sad snow meltdown

[Gradient Keeper]

Block is also slightly further east on the 18z ECMWF compared to the 12z at the same time.

 

Screen Shot 2019-11-21 at 5.31.01 PM.png

I believe I'm seeing the tilt just ever slightly more favorable similar to 18z GEFS with the offshore ridge as it merges evolving into the block.

 

00z NAM in 15 minutes. Yes, we can look for trends around Day 3. C'MON!!!! Show the Nammy some love!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Two people joined just today from south of the border. No one else otherwise.

Nice, looks like some really high quality weather discussion over there. I might join later down the road. Always been intrigued about your climate up there and the Fraser River outflow.

[Dave]

What I hate is the final few hours prior to the snow event and then it’s snatched away or goes around you!!!

That’s when I sufer a very sad snow meltdown

I think I get more sad when we get a fresh snowfall and then it immediately starts raining on it.

[Gradient Keeper]

OH MAN, I want pics of that s**t show dude!

LMAO .... Me too. I'll go one further. If 00z runs aren't colder I will run around my backyard naked and take a video of it.

 

00z GFS in 1 hour 58 minutes

[Frontal Snowsquall]

What I hate is the final few hours prior to the snow event and then it’s snatched away or goes around you!!!

That’s when I suffer a very sad snow meltdown

Yeah, that's happened a few times or when you expect snow but get sleet or freezing rain instead lol.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At this point I would say I have about a 25% of 1"+ of snow next week. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I believe I'm seeing the tilt just ever slightly more favorable similar to 18z GEFS with the offshore ridge as it merges evolving into the block.

 

00z NAM in 15 minutes. Yes, we can look for trends around Day 3. C'MON!!!! Show the Nammy some love!

So if the blocking is a it further East. Dows it cause the Tuesday system to come in further North? Mountains need snow

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I think I get more sad when we get a fresh snowfall and then it immediately starts raining on it.

 

And it always seems to be easiest to get snow as a cold pattern is ending, guaranteeing that this is a common fate for most snowfalls here. The snow events that are followed by several days of freezing weather are a rare treat.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

And it always seems to be easiest to get snow as a cold pattern is ending, guaranteeing that this is a common fate for most snowfalls here. The snow events that are followed by several days of freezing weather are a rare treat.

 

Dec 2013 

[kokaneekidz]

Yes indeed

 

From NWS PDX:

 

Sunday night through Thanksgiving Day...The

unseasonable doldrums which have dominated much of November across

SW Washington and NW Oregon appear to give way to a significantly

more active pattern as we head into early next week. Beyond the

first front expected to move through the forecast area Sunday,

additional shortwave energy will move through for more precipitation

through Monday. Meanwhile, snow levels will be lowering as flow

aloft turns more northwesterly, likely lowering below the passes

Sunday night then remaining there through much, if not all, of

Thanksgiving week. Therefore by Monday one can expect to encounter

wintry travel across the Cascades, with snow levels lowering into

the foothills Monday and Monday night as a large upper level trough

carves out over the Pac NW.

 

Attention then turns to the low pressure system shown by many

models/ensembles rounding the base of said upper trough and moving

into the West Coast, mainly Tuesday. There are still enormous

differences between members regarding the evolution of this system,

with the range of landfall solutions extending from Vancouver Island

to south of San Francisco and solutions for the low's intensity

ranging from sub-960 mb to around 1000 mb as it moves onshore. Given

the cold air pushing down with the upper trough, and the potential

for the low to come onshore to the south of all or part of the

forecast area, this system will need to be watched for the potential

for low elevation snow north of the low. That said, no single

solution can be trusted (nor discounted) at this point, especially

given the variance between guidance. For now, we continued to trend

our forecast colder, with snow levels generally around 2000 feet

Tuesday then down to 1000-1500 feet by Wednesday. Longer range

guidance appears to be in decent agreement that the upper trough

will park over the Pac NW through Thanksgiving, with scattered

showers and possibly even a few flurries reaching down to the lowest

elevations. Weagle

Way to hedge your bets..... Oh we're giving ourselves a 850 mile wide berth on landfall. Seems the modelling is just a touch discombobulated with this pattern change. That's all I have to say 'bout that

[Jesse]

18z looks disgustingly dry. Hopefully wetter runs to come.

[Blizzard777]

I think I get more sad when we get a fresh snowfall and then it immediately starts raining on it.

The southerly wind ######!

 

lol, southerly should be censored as well