Jump to content

November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

Recommended Posts

I had a baseball tournament in Grand Junction when I was 16. Granted that is only around 4600 or so, but I remember being winded after a short warm up jog. 

After I played pro ball I coached the JV baseball team at Eastern Oregon University in La Grande.  It was May 12, cool 50f at game time.  The wind switched around, temp dropped like a rock and you could see the clouds roll in over the Blues and it snowed an inch in the 5th inning.  That was only about 2,800ft but you just never know.  Spring can be crazy on the east side. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

already hearing reports of rain/snow mix up around northern whatcom county in western wa around the border. anybody able to confirm this?

Didn't notice anything out the office window in Lynden. And temps look to be mid-40s pretty much anywhere in the lowlands. Maple Falls is 33° right now, so maybe in the foothills.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After I played pro ball I coached the JV baseball team at Eastern Oregon University in La Grande.  It was May 12, cool 50f at game time.  The wind switched around, temp dropped like a rock and you could see the clouds roll in over the Blues and it snowed an inch in the 5th inning.  That was only about 2,800ft but you just never know.  Spring can be crazy on the east side. 

 Pretty sure we had this discussion when I was active on here in February, but where did you play? 

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Double c-zone structure all day... with activity to the north and south of my area and not much at all here.

 

I remember mentioning this to Hawkstwelve a couple days ago based on the ECMWF precip maps... and thought his area might see more action than my area today.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Our daughter is trying to get home from U of Wyoming in Laramie for TD.  She was going to drive from Laramie to Denver Wednesday and then fly out.  Winter storm warnings now posted for there and Denver for 6-15", high winds and white out conditions starting later today.  They've closed the college for a couple days.  We told her if there was any way, get out of town early today if she wanted any chance to get home.  She found a ride to Denver with a friend and left this am.

When they close the U of Wy it's gonna be a good one.   

 

I'm surprised it has accumulated so little since this morning. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also looks like the c-zones are starting to weaken and shift off to the east... onshore flow is now weakening and offshore flow will be starting up late tonight which should completely end the c-zone activity.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No, Tuesdays storm.... models have been wrong and we're looking at 6-10 inches. 80 knt winds.

 

 

Ahhh yes... that storm will make a beeline for the southern OR coast and then move straight northward to Seattle.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest CulverJosh

No, Tuesdays storm.... models have been wrong and we're looking at 6-10 inches. 80 knt winds.

 

Lol.  If that were to happen I would throw out everything in the models this winter :).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At this point, cold with zero snow is worthless for the next few months

Cold/dry vs warm/swampy..which would you choose?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On and off very heavy rain. Fun and filthy weather day at times.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cold/dry vs warm/swampy..which would you choose?

We’re at the end of fall going into winter. Last time I checked, warm and swampy never happens this time of year.

 

Cold/dry is more interesting than warm front weak drizzle but it’s still just a novelty. Also the ski resorts need snow and the current pattern isn’t exactly helping.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Warm and wet.  At least the mountains would have snow.  A really dry winter could end up leading to disastrous wildfires, endless smoke, and water rationing next Summer.  No thanks.  Warm and wet is the lesser of two evils.

There is little meaningful correlation between winter/spring precipitation and summer wildfires. 2016-17 was a record wet Oct-April and yet 2017 was a terrible fire season.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is the 500mb mean for the 10-15 day period on the 12Z EPS... looks like some sort of pattern reset to me.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500-anom-5day-

A move to +PNA is almost inevitable during the second half of Dec, but that might provide a (short) window for real precipitation too. Just a question of how much and how far north into the PNW vs CA.

 

Won’t last too long, with another -EPO on its heels. Some behemoth cold should enter the lower-48 before long.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Will need to knock that negative 500mb anomaly away from Baffin Island for a sustained cold pattern in the West, though.

 

Been a consistent teleconnection in the 21st century.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don’t live in DT Seattle. I live on the east side. Overall I’d say Puget Sound has better winters than Portland.. Especially in the CZ area.

 

I'm comparing downtown vs downtown, they are honestly both pretty mediocre.

 

If talking about nearby microclimates, I think it comes down to personal preference somewhat. I was in the gorge maybe December 2016 and experienced such an incredible storm. There is something just really fascinating about witnessing the back and forth battle between the cold and warm (good vs evil) air there and the precip type switching multiple times from snow, sleet, ZR and back and forth. There was a weird mix of a few inches of snow and then like a foot of snow/zr/sleet mix on top of it. The wind and windchill were just brutal of course and that might be a big turn off for some. 

 

I don't remember if it was the same month I was there, but I know those spots in the gorge have the ability to just remain below freezing for weeks at a time or an entire month. You also get different climates within the gorge itself, I think Cascade Locks gets over 70 in per year in precip but The Dalles is under 20 for sure. 

 

I wouldn't mind living in a place like Hood River or White Salmon, averages about 25 inches of snow per year, beautiful views of Mt Hood, Adams, etc. Wind surfing on the Columbia and lots of vineyards and about an hour drive from Portland on I-84.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm comparing downtown vs downtown, they are honestly both pretty mediocre.

 

If talking about nearby microclimates, I think it comes down to personal preference somewhat. I was in the gorge maybe December 2016 and experienced such an incredible storm. There is something just really fascinating about witnessing the back and forth battle between the cold and warm (good vs evil) air there and the precip type switching multiple times from snow, sleet, ZR and back and forth. There was a weird mix of a few inches of snow and then like a foot of snow/zr/sleet mix on top of it. The wind and windchill were just brutal of course and that might be a big turn off for some. 

 

I wouldn't mind living in a place like Hood River or White Salmon, averages about 25 inches of snow per year, beautiful views of Mt Hood, Adams, etc. Wind surfing on the Columbia and lots of vineyards and about an hour drive from Portland on I-84.

Cascade Locks would have a really fun climate but the freezing rain and ice kind of ruins it.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Get that Aleutian low pumping again. Wipe out the PV and drop the Arctic hammer around the holidays. #january2020

Definitely a better wave-1 type driving pattern in the long range there. Get the top half of the PV leaning into Siberia for a wave-2 split job and then it would get very interesting for January. In 2018/19 that happened in mid-January, which was a too late to see effects that month.

 

Can this place wait until Jan, though? Haha.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is little meaningful correlation between winter/spring precipitation and summer wildfires. 2016-17 was a record wet Oct-April and yet 2017 was a terrible fire season.

Certainly what happens in Summer matters more, but if you start off with dry soil in March in the mountains because what little snow there was has melted, it can lead to a longer wildfire season.  We have seen that here time after time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Warm and wet. At least the mountains would have snow. A really dry winter could end up leading to disastrous wildfires, endless smoke, and water rationing next Summer. No thanks. Warm and wet is the lesser of two evils.

But those wildfires have little to do with winter precip.

 

I’ll never understand you guys, lol. If I’m not getting snow, I’d rather the mountains suffer with me than score big at my expense. Screw the mountains.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...