November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

I think it might be possible that trough next week will split with most of action going into CA. That would be something new! Believe it when I see.

 

I just can't see any good signs right now for the WA ski resorts. There is nothing meaningful in sight.

[FroYoBro]

That easterly wind is getting a little colder this afternoon. Wonder if we clear out these clouds tonight?

[Timmy]

I think it might be possible that trough next week will split with most of action going into CA. That would be something new! Believe it when I see.

 

I just can't see any good signs right now for the WA ski resorts. There is nothing meaningful in sight.

looks like about a foot for the high cascades Over the next 10 days. Could be worse

[Requiem]

Who knows, maybe models will trend a little wetter, especially for this weekend. We've seen it happen before!

[TT-SEA]

looks like about a foot for the high cascades Over the next 10 days. Could be worse

 

 

Has to be overstated.

 

Run the precip loop... the only precip is around here is next Thursday and Friday and those fronts look like they are splitting.

 

Almost every day is dry over the 2 weeks on the 18Z GFS.    ECMWF and EPS agree.   12Z ECMWF showed about 3 inches at Snoqualmie Pass over the next 10 days.

 

I guess some of the high peaks might get upslope snow.

[MossMan]

Perhaps we will have an April 2008 repeat. Better late than never?

 

It’s over.

[TT-SEA]

14 out of the next 16 days are dry in Seattle per the 18Z GFS.

 

That is pretty silly given how dry November ended up.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Has to be overstated.

 

Run the precip loop... the only precip is around here is next Thursday and Friday and those fronts look like they are splitting.

 

Almost every day is dry over the 2 weeks on the 18Z GFS. ECMWF and EPS agree. 12Z ECMWF showed about 3 inches at Snoqualmie Pass over the next 10 days.

 

I guess some of the high peaks might get upslope snow.

Models always seem to overstate precip. Usually gets washed out a few days out. Especially in this split flow pattern it’s going to be hard to get any meaningful snow in the cascades or rainfall in the lowlands.

I don’t think that split flow is just going to stay in place all the way through March...but if that was the case about 75% of this winter it wouldn’t surprise me.

[TacomaWaWx]

We’re at 1.83” of rain for November. Easily will be the driest November I’ve recorded in the past 15 years.

[El_Nina]

Radar shows precip in the valley over Salem and to the west. Bet it's just virga

[Deweydog]

That easterly wind is getting a little colder this afternoon. Wonder if we clear out these clouds tonight?

Models seem to want to keep them around into tomorrow morning.

 

I think Phil is gonna see his shadow!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Very distinct snow line visible on the hillside opposite from me.  Some trees have snow on their tops but are bare on their lower branches!

 

 

Here's what Sumas Mountain looked like yesterday afternoon:

 

[TT-SEA]

I only post 384 hour maps for fun.   But if you extrapolate out 1,700 hours... I like where this is heading!

 

[Jesse]

[wx_statman]

What an interesting pattern. At one point yesterday, Redding had snow with south winds gusting to 49 mph. Don't see that very often. 

[Cloud]

Pretty amazing to see the cascades has blocked any cloud from entering W. Wa.

 

Beautiful windy day.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

What an interesting pattern. At one point yesterday, Redding had snow with south winds gusting to 49 mph. Don't see that very often. 

 

Which means Redding has seen more snow (and an earlier snow) than Seattle, Bellingham, or Vancouver BC so far this season.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

A good inch on the deck railing (hard to hold the ruler steady in one hand while holding the camera in the other):

 

Nice! At least you got something.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6" in the yard here. Last time there was that much before the first week of December was in 2010.

 

There's varying amounts depending on where I put the ruler but I figured the average was 6". Spots up to 8-9" probably from the wind blown snow yesterday, and garbage bins have up to 5".

 

 

 

 

Congrats! Looks like you'll have a White Thanksgiving.

[Timmy Supercell]

Which means Redding has seen more snow (and an earlier snow) than Seattle, Bellingham, or Vancouver BC so far this season.

 

Ouch, more than Vancouver BC.. how much do they average?

[Deweydog]

[Timmy Supercell]

Congrats! Looks like you'll have a White Thanksgiving.

 

Yeah the next time I get above freezing is Saturday if the forecast pans out. Even then we're looking at 33 maybe 34 that day.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Wettest year on record already in Minneapolis... breaking the record from 2016.

 

Wow, that's wild and still got a month to add to that total.

[Requiem]

Gosh, if that bomb cyclone would have made landfall just a tad north (at around Newport or Lincoln City) I could have had a snowstorm and a major windstorm all at the same time. I'll get it someday.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Yeah the next time I get above freezing is Saturday if the forecast pans out. Even then we're looking at 33 maybe 34 that day.

Gonna be a memorable Thanksgiving weekend for you guys over there, enjoy it while it last!

[Timmy Supercell]

Gonna be a memorable Thanksgiving weekend for you guys over there, enjoy it while it last!

 

Yesterday we were passing by vehicles that had very poor traction and had to drive slowly. People without 4-wheel drive should make their plans early, at the bottom of the hill we live on our jeep cherokee was almost sliding when we were driving to Albertson's. 

 

Heard there were a lot of accidents around. The snow wasn't quite the same as your typical garden variety fluff. 

[Deweydog]

Ensembles????

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Gosh, if that bomb cyclone would have made landfall just a tad north (at around Newport or Lincoln City) I could have had a snowstorm and a major windstorm all at the same time. I'll get it someday.

The best example of something like that would probably have to be the 1-9-1880 Storm King. That storm was even deeper, around 955mb at landfall, possibly even lower.

[High Desert Mat?]

ms-Ri9mtg.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well got up to 38 here at home. Ended up getting a solid dusting of snow this afternoon, tapering off now and down to 32. 

[High Desert Mat?]

A solid 9” here imby and it is still snowing lightly. Looks to stop later this evening. High of 28 and should be down to around 16 tonight with it only getting to 24 tomorrow. Love this area sometimes with the residual cold and longevity of it. Should not get above freezing until sometime Monday or so. One bad note, I had to chain up the big rig today to do my route, everyone else did too today. Highways were ok but it’s the side streets and parking lots. Current temp 25.7

[TT-SEA]

Ensembles????

Always improving... always getting wetter and colder.

[MossMan]

Ensembles????

They must be EPIC!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Happy for the central Oregon folks. Nice snowstorm for you!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Always improving... always getting wetter and colder.

 

They didn't look half bad!

[El_Nina]

Timberline actually didn't open due to inclement weather today. They're gonna reevaluate and see if they can open for good tomorrow. They sound like they aren't quite sure though. Maybe they checked the forecast.

[MossMan]

Friend of mine that lives in the Bellingham area lost power and is currently running generator power. He said it is blowing pretty good up there.

[TT-SEA]

They didn't look half bad!

 

Those charts for one location with no visibility into the overall pattern that show every rain event from every member are really nice.   You can imagine that every rain event from every member will verify... even though you might be counting the same rain event 20 times with just slight different timing.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Yesterday we were passing by vehicles that had very poor traction and had to drive slowly. People without 4-wheel drive should make their plans early, at the bottom of the hill we live on our jeep cherokee was almost sliding when we were driving to Albertson's.

 

Heard there were a lot of accidents around. The snow wasn't quite the same as your typical garden variety fluff.

Yikes! How is Black Friday shopping there, do people usually rush and go early for the deals?

[TT-SEA]

This is the coldest 5-day mean (day 7-12) on the 18Z GFS ensembles... even the GFS ensembles agree with the EPS mean on split flow.