November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Those 18z ensembles were not half bad. 

[BLI snowman]

I think SEA is going below freezing tonight

 

 

They actually snuck down to 31 this morning, between the obs. After we had all given up hope.

[Timmy Supercell]

#EveningLows

[BLI snowman]

The 10-15 day EPS shows no snow here on Sunday morning

 

 

[umadbro]

The 10-15 day EPS shows no snow here on Sunday morning

 

I literally lol'd

[TT-SEA]

I just want a mountain snow pattern for a couple weeks.

 

Not in sight.

[Timmy]

The 10-15 day EPS shows no snow here on Sunday morning

 

 

The 00z gfs did actually kill it tho.

[BLI snowman]

The 00z gfs did actually kill it tho.

 

Going to be pretty marginal if we get anything. Heavier precip rates will likely correspond with more WAA aloft and warmer 850mb temps, so we'll have to thread the needle pretty perfectly to get accumulating snow.

[Front Ranger]

Going to be pretty marginal if we get anything. Heavier precip rates will likely correspond with more WAA aloft and warmer 850mb temps, so we'll have to thread the needle pretty perfectly to get accumulating snow.

 

Think Christmas 2017.

[Front Ranger]

Arlington is already in the mid 20s.

[BLI snowman]

Think Christmas 2017.

 

We've had a number of 1-2" overrunning events in recent years that were similar, 12/8/16 and 1/3/16 as well.  This one looks a little more iffy though, it looks like there's a downslope element that will shred that band in half as it moves north.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We've had a number of 1-2" overrunning events in recent years that were similar, 12/8/16 and 1/3/16 as well.  This one looks a little more iffy though, it looks like there's a downslope element that will shred that band in half as it moves north.

 

I feel like both of those airmasses that were being overrun were colder than this one at the surface. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 25. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS keeps the precip around longer for sure.

[Gradient Keeper]

00Z GFS keeps the precip around longer for sure.

WPAC jet gears up as early as Day 6. By Day 10 it's very consolidated all the way to 150 W. Hmmm.... I'll believe it when the jet is at 160 W at Day 4.

 

Day 6

 

 

Day 10

[TT-SEA]

Yeah... too early to say.

 

I would like to see the ECMWF and EPS go in that direction tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A lot of rain for Norcal in the long range too. 

[Deweydog]

EPS.

[Gradient Keeper]

GEM continues to be splittier and much slower with any meaningful pattern change. The GFS is outstanding if you were wanting a pattern change to wet, active, mt. snow

 

00z ECMWF in 24 minutes

[Cloud]

One hell of an overrun.

Fake map. EPS rule all and it’s telling me 80F and lava spewing.

[ShawniganLake]

26F here. Coldest spot on the south coast of BC is Campbell River at 22F.

[ShawniganLake]

This will be the driest November in 40 years at Shawnigan Lake. December 1979 followed up with an absolute deluge. Over 16” of rain that month

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Ensembles. A bit milder overall than previous runs. Not a huge fan.

 

Portland

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

 

Seattle

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

Vancouver BC

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[FroYoBro]

Conditions should be great for a cold night. 

 

The wind has mostly died here and the skies are clear. Might hit freezing! 

[TT-SEA]

Fake map. EPS rule all and it’s telling me 80F and lava spewing.

 

You guys had no problem last February when the EPS was extremely consistent showing cold... we could basically ignore any run that showed a major warm up.    

 

Eventually it will become less consistent... it was total crap for months in the warm season.   

[BLI snowman]

I feel like both of those airmasses that were being overrun were colder than this one at the surface. 

 

They were, but the timing of this and low level airmass are still favorable for frozen precip from Salem north. 

[Gradient Keeper]

9:48 PM Near West Gresham my temp is 36.6, dewpoint 19.4, East wind 25-35mph. I see Yacolt is already down to 24. Brrr!

[GHweatherChris]

Sunday

[MossMan]

Currently 28 degrees.

[MossMan]

Sunday

No Seahawks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

They were, but the timing of this and low level airmass are still favorable for frozen precip from Salem north. 

 

I was at work in Salem with the December 2016 event. It wasn't bad as far as marginal events go that far from the gorge. It snowed for a couple hours and we had about 1.5" near downtown at river level. Then it just kind of drizzled off and on the rest of the day. A bit of a forgotten event from our most complete winter of the century so far. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not to sound like Phil...But after Sunday it might be a good time to take a break from the models for a week or two. 

[umadbro]

33/20 in Ridgefield. ENE wind gusting to 2.5mph

[MossMan]

Not to sound like Phil...But after Sunday it might be a good time to take a break from the models for a week or two.

Probably a smart thing to do...but you know that won’t happen.

[Requiem]

I was at work in Salem with the December 2016 event. It wasn't bad as far as marginal events go that far from the gorge. It snowed for a couple hours and we had about 1.5" near downtown at river level. Then it just kind of drizzled off and on the rest of the day. A bit of a forgotten event from our most complete winter of the century so far. 

 

That one was actually a pretty crazy event in my area. Maybe about three inches of snow, but a good inch or so of ice after that as additional showers moved through when most of the city was supposed to be thawing out. Probably the only event (windstorms included) to cause significant tree damage in my location.

[FroYoBro]

EURO!

[snow_wizard]

It appears to me we are probably going to have to go through an Aleutian / GOA trough period before we get into the really good stuff.  At this point it looks like that very thing will happen in the 10 to 15 day period.  After that the ECMWF weeklies have a strong signal for cold in the NW for late December / early January.

 

I'm pretty satisfied with the late September through November period, but it appears we need a reset.  That having been said the 500mb anomaly composite for the period has a fantastic look to it, which projected into winter would give us a great outcome.  Rather remarkably this year I will record the most freezing low temps ever for the September - November period.  A total of 23 will top the 21 in 1985.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It appears to me we are probably going to have to go through an Aleutian / GOA trough period before we get into the really good stuff.  At this point it looks like that very thing will happen in the 10 to 15 day period.  After that the ECMWF weeklies have a strong signal for cold in the NW for late December / early January.

 

I'm pretty satisfied with the late September through November period, but it appears we need a reset.  That having been said the 500mb anomaly composite for the period has a fantastic look to it, which projected into winter would give us a great outcome.  Rather remarkably this year I will record the most freezing low temps ever for the September - November period.  A total of 23 will top the 21 in 1985.

 

Going to be the coldest SON at Salem since 1985. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF

The only notable trend I can find is at Day 6. The past 4 runs the Aleutian ridge is trending much stronger. You can also see no consistency on the handling of the cut-off low. If the trend to bolster that ridge continues that might have implications perhaps on the bitter air in BC/AB trying to sneak down into Eastern Washington.

 

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7-10 trying to go somewhere with the most amplified skinniest ridge ever. That plays into what I posted earlier about the trend to strengthen the Aleutian ridge.