November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Tyler Mode]

19 degrees so far this morning.  Coldest since March.

[TacomaWaWx]

25 degrees here at 6:15am. Still another hour of darkness left...so could drop another 2-3 degrees potentially. This is officially my coldest low since 2/10...during the snowmaggedon of February 2019. This is also officially our coldest low in November since 2014.

[TacomaWaWx]

In 24 hours...there’s a good chance it ought to be doing some light snow. Rather fitting that we have our first potential measurable snowfall occur on the first day of meteorological winter. Hopeful that we can pick up a trace atleast to get some pictures of some snow on the ground.

[BhamMe]

23 degrees just north of downtown Bellingham this morning and absolutely no wind. 

[Ray]

23 degrees this morning just south of Bonney Lake.

[ShawniganLake]

Currently 24 degrees and heavy smoke. Cannot wait to get some southerlies going to push the smoke from the north away.

From peoples wood stoves? Try a leaf blower.

[Timmy]

21 in scappoose

[Timmy]

17 at chehalis

[ShawniganLake]

14 in Campbell River

[antipex]

Bottomed out at 22 this morning before the east wind kicked in. Now a frosty 27 with steadily strengthening wind.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

17 here calm clear and frosty.

[TT-SEA]

It was 26 in North Bend when I went to bed... now up to 34.    Obviously the east wind has arrived.

 

Also... my parent's car in the driveway is covered in frost right now but my son's car is not.   My parent's car was there all night and my son's car was parked just after midnight.     Interesting science experiment right there.   

[MossMan]

From peoples wood stoves? Try a leaf blower.

Big slash burn several miles away that has been smoldering for weeks now.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Hmm. Maybe a surprise snowstorm again?

 

A low pressure system over the eastern pacific will approach the

region today and spread clouds and snow showers to the area that

will start over central Oregon later this afternoon. The moisture

will track north overnight into the remainder of the area from

south to north. Snow should accumulate around the rdm/bend area at

first then move into the john day highlands and the gorge and

then into the remainder of the area by late Saturday night and

Sunday morning. At this time snow accumulations are expected

between 2 to 5 inches across most of the area into Sunday when the

snow will slowly taper off with decreasing pcpn chances over the

southern sections Sunday afternoon. The models were generating

higher pcpn amounts in the gorge. Although the snow amounts remain

mostly below advisory criteria at this time...a challenge may be

with colder air at the surface being overrun with a moist and

warmer southerly flow aloft that could increase pcpn amounts. Also

another challenge may be along the foothills of the blue

mountains where a southerly downslope wind may either produce some

drying and or warming later tonight and Sunday and the forecast

was adjusted accordingly.

[Timmy]

Hmm. Maybe a surprise snowstorm again?

.

Did you have a surprise snowstorm recently ?

[jcmcgaffey]

Some impressive numbers this morning east of the mountains especially down in central Oregon.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Did you have a surprise snowstorm recently ?

Nope. But they happen quite a bit.

[Timmy]

Nope. But they happen quite a bit.

you said “again” that’s why I asked.

[Guest CulverJosh]

you said “again” that’s why I asked.

Ya. Didn’t mean again. I should’ve said this time.

[Front Ranger]

If this isn’t a clear +ENSO lean, then I’m the second coming of Christ.

 

We have:

 

- STJ/+AAM moat in the subtropics (split flow!)

- +IOD/Maritime Continent Subsidence/weak Walker Cell

- +Niño 3.4 values and a warm subsurface

- Unfiltered phase diagrams (MJO et al) heavily biased to phases 8-1-2

The last two are questionable.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

-10 at Burns this morning. -6 Redmond. 

 

21 at EUG 19 at SLE 19 at HIO 27 at PDX

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS now keeps it dry all day tomorrow from Olympia northward... looks like no reason to set early alarms up here.  

[Blizzard777]

21 in scappoose

Matching the 21* here as well

dp 15

[Front Ranger]

16 at Shelton. 17 at McChord.

[FroYoBro]

Cold night with no wind. 

 

Now that the sun is up I see the easterly gradient is picking up and already see some high clouds to the south. Good timing at least. 

 

SNOWSTORM. 

[TT-SEA]

Quite the range of temps this morning... some highlights include 34 in North Bend, 28 at SEA, and 19 at one spot just southeast of Renton:

 

[Timmy]

Cold night with no wind.

 

Now that the sun is up I see the easterly gradient is picking up and already see some high clouds to the south. Good timing at least.

 

SNOWSTORM.

Gfs says no way ho say

[TT-SEA]

HRRR is in disagreement with the GFS... it shows a solid band of precip over the Seattle area tomorrow morning.    Forget what I said about those early alarms.

 

[FroYoBro]

Gfs says no way ho say

 

Yeah, I was mostly joking. I don't expect a snowstorm. Would be nice to see a few flakes. 

[Blizzard777]

Personal weather stations down around La Pine –3* to 1*

[Guest CulverJosh]

The OD sensor I have tied into my WiFi thermostat says 0 right now.

[TT-SEA]

WRF shows the east wind absolutely cranking out here tomorrow morning... that will likely result in at least some of the precip not reaching the ground.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Officially a low of 25 this morning...coldest morning of the fall happens to be on the last day of fall too.

[Prairiedog]

23f down on the creek.  Beautiful morning.  Had to bring the hummingbird feeders in early this am and thaw them out. 

[TacomaWaWx]

WRF shows the east wind absolutely cranking out here tomorrow morning... that will likely result in at least some of the precip not reaching the ground.

 

will be interesting to see how this plays out tomorrow morning...even though this will be a very minor short lived event.

[Jesse]

Low of 22 here this morning.

[TT-SEA]

WRF not showing much lowland snow...

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS shows quite the AR event for Vancouver Island next weekend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Burns wasn't quite able to get to the record low for the date which was -14 set in 2015.

[HighlandExperience]

The NAM looks wetter than the GFS for Sunday morning. Still not much to write home about.