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November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

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Have a thin layer of snow on nearly everything now, road is still resisting a little but sticking to a good bit of it. 33.4F. Still too warm but got some accumulation with strong precip rate. 

 

I didn't think surface temps would be much of an issue but it does seem like even that was marginally too warm. Might have just enough headroom to wetbulb down to 32 but the warm tongue of death is approaching.  Probably not too much snow left.

 

I'm not complaining though, enjoyed seeing some nice flakes and getting a tiny bit of accumulation. The bar is pretty D**n low around here  :D .

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West hills absolutely getting lit up on the radar. There's going to be some decent accumulations up there. 1-2 inches?

 

Lot of it is really heavy sleet, sadly.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Lot of it is really heavy sleet, sadly.

 

 

Pretty surprising, I still have 100% snow for now but I'm fairly far west side, maybe a bit of coast range daming. Models did show the areas closest to the coast range and gorge being the last to change over. I'm expecting change to sleet any minute if you're getting it on the west hills though. 

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Pretty surprising, I still have 100% snow for now but I'm fairly far west side, maybe a bit of coast range daming. Models did show the areas closest to the coast range and gorge being the last to change over. I'm expecting change to sleet any minute if you're getting it on the west hills though. 

 

I'm a bit worried for a touch of freezing rain, as temps are actually dropping as more precip comes in (albeit lighter). The east winds up here are crazy strong as well.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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What is your temp up there? 

 

My weather station just so happened to be offline this week, but most around here are in the 33-35 range.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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My weather station just so happened to be offline this week, but most around here are in the 33-35 range.

 

A lot warmer up there then I would have expected but indeed I do see plenty of stations up there showing 33-34.

 

Still all snow here but I've warmed all the way up to 33.4F now so I assume the end is near for me too. 

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So is there only El Niño or La Niña in your view. No neutral it’s one or the other.

The phrase “neutral” can be misleading in cases like this, where a low pass signal (IE: “background state”) is evident without complete synchronicity in the ENSO system.

 

And yeah. there is no such thing as a 100% “neutral” tropical/ENSO system. There’s almost always a decipherable low pass/background state present in one form or another.

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Ahhh... the classic fall back. You were wrong about today. SEA was actually right around the temperature you would expect in that location today.

SEA is a joke, though. It doesn’t represent the true nature of the diurnal cycle or seasonal temp anomalies except for areas in the concrete jungle.

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Good catch. I know the length of the LRC can vary but there's a nice period of around 30 days right now. Usually it's a little longer but this shows how prevelant the blocking has been over the GOA and how it keeps reoccurring. Hopefully the next time it sets up shop is in our sweet spot. Best case scenario as we all know would be something like January 1950.

LRC is an illusion, IMO.

 

LRC = MJO + AAM transports + wavetrain seasonality.

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Consolidated jet? That looks like an AR at hour 264.

Same thing, really.

 

There’s a chance for a wet week as the +EAMT climaxes (blocking returns in a hurry afterwards) but remember models don’t handle split flow well in the longer range. Good chance it trends more splitty upon approach.

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So most of those bright yellow radar echoes were sleet? Hmmm

If you have RadarScope and select the correlation coefficient option you’ll see the sleet line very clearly. The best tool for p-types.

 

Bright banding w/ sleet also has a different “texture” on the super-res reflectivity product.

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