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November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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Anchorage NWS mentioned there is only good agreement through Tuesday, then models diverge on how to handle both the energy in the Gulf of Alaska and ridging over the Eastern Bering Sea. That tells me the offshore block/Western Alaskan ridge may merge more favorably and it's not out of the realm of possibility to see the block/cold pattern reset potentially much further west. Just the same I suppose the energy could be handled differently breaking it down sooner. We won't know that until Monday 00z or Tuesday 12z.

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Just kind of catching up on some of the forecast models this morning,been a busy few days. No real telling of where we may go weather wise starting next weekend. Kind of feels like 13-14 to me. Wet september, dry October and november that year. Just my opinion but i feel like a 13-14 type of winter is on the way. Dry with a couple artic blasts in there. 

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-18

+85s-5

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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Just kind of catching up on some of the forecast models this morning,been a busy few days. No real telling of where we may go weather wise starting next weekend. Kind of feels like 13-14 to me. Wet september, dry October and november that year. Just my opinion but i feel like a 13-14 type of winter is on the way. Dry with a couple artic blasts in there.

*arctic

 

I will say I’d welcome that era repeat of that year for sure. Redmond ties the all time record low of -28 twice. Once in December and once in February. Snow was on the ground more days than not that winter. Bring it on!!!

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I assume you are referring to the cold in my home state right?

 

gfs_T850a_us_65.png

 

 

Interestingly... the 18Z GFS does not show colder than normal 850mb temps at all for us the entire run.

Where was this during summer!?

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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FIWIW.... here is the 00Z EPS.

 

5-10 day mean:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-

Let's get all the warm anomalies out of the way now.

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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I’ll take this over foggy and drizzle

searching desperately for a positive here

It's funny, I was just thinking I would take a foggy, drizzly few days just to shake things up. Day after day of sunshine gets boring.

 

Gradients go flatter later in the weekend into early next week, so maybe we will luck out and see some foggy days, or at least foggy, drizzly mornings.

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It's funny, I was just thinking I would take a foggy, drizzly few days just to shake things up. Day after day of sunshine gets boring.

 

Gradients go flatter later in the weekend into early next week, so maybe we will luck out and see some foggy days, or at least foggy, drizzly mornings.

Back in my younger days loved the foggy/drizzle thing.  Not so much at this age.

Given a prolonged stretch of weather I’ll opt for the sunny weather over the foggy/drizzle thing but I don’t mind some foggy days thrown in here and there.  

 

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A Coug does not willingly go to a Huskies game unless its the Apple Cup, what is wrong with that kid?

He wants to hang out with his brother and see his new life in college. :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It's funny, I was just thinking I would take a foggy, drizzly few days just to shake things up. Day after day of sunshine gets boring.

 

Gradients go flatter later in the weekend into early next week, so maybe we will luck out and see some foggy days, or at least foggy, drizzly mornings.

Tim’s head just exploded.

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That's an insane air mass the GFS has for the middle of the country days 9-10.

And mid-November is the most “zonal” subseasonal period, with a +EAMT and modest jet extension (which might not even reach the PNW, or barely so).

 

Could be the GFS rushing the progression, but if you want big cold, just wait until the rubber band snaps back with the flip to -EAMT, AAM is removed from the atmosphere, and the East Asian jet retracts. Gonna be a wavebreaking party in late November.

 

No semi-permanent Baffin vortex in sight right now..the next two weeks are the closest we’ll get to that for awhile, and it’s still very displaced.

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This is, in part, a response to the activation of the MJO (or its emergence over the dominating IOD signal which has been inhibiting its regular emergence out of the IO).

 

It crosses the Maritime Continent over the next 10 days producing a trade wind burst, then propagates out over the warm pool/dateline, at which point constructive interference with the background state resumes, culminating in what should be two WWBs, the second one being displaced eastward.

 

The CFS doesn’t represent this very well, but here’s the 850mb projection.

 

DdonR37.png

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