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November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

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64/20 here. Nice day.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Parts of the region, including Portland, just had their coldest October since 1949. And now we seem to be turning fairly mild in November, as we did that year. And then to top it off you have Phil calling for a holy s**t January.

 

It’s no 2002 or 2004, but given the context/some of the similarities in observed weather the last month+, I would say it’s as relevant now as it’s ever been.

The thing is, seasonal analogs cannot always be predictive of tendencies on weekly (or even monthly) timescales, especially during seasonal transitions. And the farther back you go, the more likely it is that you will not have analogous large scale boundary conditions to work with, irrespective of ENSO or what have you. Furthermore, years with completely different ENSOs, etc can produce very similar outcomes both seasonally and subseasonally at particular locations. So the signal vs noise (background state vs intraseasonal variability) issue comes into play.

 

The most surefire way to obtain predictability via analogs is to aggregate the largest sample size possible, with the greatest degree of homogeneity to the current system state from a lower frequency standpoint. The higher frequency variability can arise out of the lower frequency state, or sometimes vice versa, but it can’t be predicted accurately until the former (low-freq) progression is nailed down.

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Phil has called for about 4 holy s**t Januaries before this...DUE.

 

Then again, Dewey has called for at least 6 White Thanksgivings...MORE DUE.

To be fair, I’ve called for two.

 

And both ended up very blocky with strong -EPOs. Just badly oriented.

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The thing is, seasonal analogs cannot always be predictive of tendencies on weekly (or even monthly) timescales, especially during seasonal transitions. And the farther back you go, the more likely it is that you will not have analogous large scale boundary conditions to work with, irrespective of ENSO or what have you. Furthermore, years with completely different ENSOs, etc can produce very similar outcomes both seasonally and subseasonally at particular locations. So the signal vs noise (background state vs intraseasonal variability) issue comes into play.

 

The most surefire way to obtain predictability via analogs is to aggregate the largest sample size possible, with the greatest degree of homogeneity to the current system state from a lower frequency standpoint. The higher frequency variability can arise out of the lower frequency state, or sometimes vice versa, but it can’t be predicted accurately until the former (low-freq) progression is nailed down.

 

This all seems like pretty common sense stuff. My point wasn't even that it is necessarily a great analog, just that, despite the fact that it gets brought up every year, there have actually been some parallels between this fall and that one so far. So no one should be too surprised to see it getting talked about, since for once the observed weather in the lead up actually somewhat matches what we saw that year. 

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Phil’s previous early winter forecasts: THIS COULD BE IT GUYS

 

Reality: Meh

 

Phil’s forecast this year: Meh winter for anyone west of the cascades. This is not the winter you’re looking for.

 

Reality: ...

 

2002 is an analogue for people who hate to see snow on their lawn or palm trees.

 

Or for those who are simply afraid to dream. :(

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This all seems like pretty common sense stuff. My point wasn't even that it was necessarily a great analog, just that, despite the fact that it gets brought up every year, there have actually been some parallels between this fall and that one, so far. So no one should be too surprised to see it getting talked about, since for once the observed weather in the lead up actually somewhat matches what we saw that year.

Fair enough. I might be projecting a bit, since I’m not sure anyone has actually claimed it to be a verbatim analog.

 

I guess what matters to me is *why* particular years’ subseasonal pattern progressions overlap. Because that does seem to happen more frequently during seasonal transitions, and it can be deceptive. Or sometimes it’s actually conveying something deeper yet blatantly observable and you can miss it by overthinking it.

 

And in this case, I have a colder/blockier January predicted, which would fit the 1949/50 progression. But the wavetrain itself (and how it’s achieved dynamically) will almost certainly have be different than 1949/50, IMO.

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Fair enough. I might be projecting a bit, since I’m not sure anyone has actually claimed it to be a verbatim analog.

 

I guess what matters to me is *why* particular years’ subseasonal pattern progressions overlap. Because that does seem to happen more frequently during seasonal transitions, and it can be deceptive. Or sometimes it’s actually conveying something deeper yet blatantly observable and you can miss it by overthinking it.

 

And in this case, I have a colder/blockier January predicted, which would fit the 1949/50 progression. But the wavetrain/how it’s achieved dynamically will almost certainly have be different than 1949/50, IMO.

 

I would imagine that is pretty much always the case. You are never going to have two winters (or any season for that matter) that are totally identical. Especially in terms of forcings and everything which is where sh*t starts to get really complex. Which is why there is no such thing as a perfect, slam dunk analog. At best, they are rough guidelines that may work for some periods and not work for others.

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00z GFS is rainless through hour 78, which is as far as it's loaded up to now.

 

78 is shorthand for 1978, a year where about 30" of rain fell at PDX, rounded down. 1978 + 30 = 2008

 

ANALOG?

Is 2008 an analog?

 

2019 - 2008 = 11, 2019 - 1978 = 41, 41 + 11 = 52.

 

1978: 1+9+7+8 = 25, 2008: 2+0+0+8 = 10, 25+10 = 35

 

52 - 35 = 17.

 

2019 - 17 = 2002.

 

Sorry. :(

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2+0+1+9 = 12, 2+0+0+2 = 4, 12 + 4 = 16

 

2019 - 16 = 2003

 

Also 2002 - 52 is 1950

2019 - 52 = 1967 :(

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1967. 11" of snow at PDX that winter. Of course, it didn't compare to the winter that came after it. ;)

D**n your eyes, didn’t catch that in time.

 

Why does everyone bad mouth 1967, then?

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Don't forget about Fall Back tonight, which means it gets dark ridiculously early tomorrow night. To add to the insult, tomorrow is the earliest solar noon of the year everywhere thanks to the Equation of Time maxing out. Down in California that means a sunset of 4:56 PM. For Portland it's 4:55 PM and for Seattle it's 4:48 PM.

 

Compare this to February 7 of next year, which is about the same length of day, but the sunset is about 31 minutes later everywhere. So is the sunrise, however.

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