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November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

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Phil - stil feeling big November for the West?

I didn’t predict a “big November” in the lowlands, per se.

 

I said big cold into the US, possibly a backdoor blast in the PNW if the blocking is far enough west during the second half of the month, but I was unsure about it. See the winter thread. ;)

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And that potential will arrive later in the month, when the East Asian jet retracts again w/ the -EAMT.

 

The middle of the month is more zonal upstream, which favors the east.

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I just ran the rankings for the 40 coldest Februaries and 40 coldest Octobers since 1895 for the Puget Sound Lowlands and came up with a list of years that were in both groups.  Pretty surprising results.  The following are all of the years that made the cut since 1900.

 

1908

1948

1949

1950

1955

1956

1969

1985

1990

2001

 

Most of these winters went to have varying degrees of greatness with 1969 being the only total dud and 2001 being ho hum, except the North Interior of WA.  I would take my chances with this list any day.

Where is the archive for this data? 

 

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I still think something interesting is possible this month. The real fun is probably going to wait until Dec or Jan though.

Early on, my gut said to go with a frontloaded winter and call it a day, but when I really looked at things, I abandoned that idea quickly.

 

I could be wrong anyway, lol, but I’m glad I actually dug into things this year. Because even with the +ENSO background state, we’re not in the 1980s/90s/00s anymore..as we saw last winter. I don’t think we follow that script anymore.

 

In fact, those “rules” might have been a product of that era (weak BDC/cold strat/loose WC from the 1980s until the late 2000s) than anything else. They certainly didn’t apply during the 19th century or during the 1960s/70s.

 

Countless +ENSO winters in the 19th century that performed better than anything in the modern era, and in then you had 1972/73, 1968/69, and even 1965/66 to some extent that were El Niños but also delivered.

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People who b*tch and moan about the time change can get bent for all I care. First world problems. Be thankful for the roof over your head and the food in your pantry.

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People who b*tch and moan about the time change can get bent for all I care. First world problems. Be thankful for the roof over your head and the food in your pantry.

 

Spoken like a true self righteous millennial. ;) 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Hour 384 looks good.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_64.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Hour 384 looks good.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_64.png

I was just going to mention that first real meaninfgul rain is only 384 hours away on the 12Z GFS.

 

November is knocking on the door now!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The only thing that is constant in life is change.

 

Everything is changing all the time... the universe, our planet, climate, people. Its just a fact of life.

 

We are told at work that those who embrace change will thrive and those who fear change will wither.

 

Changing the clocks is something that is relatively recent in human history. So maybe not changing the clocks is going back to the good 'old days? ;)

Definitely true in the automotive repair world. I know good technician's that are older that did not learn the computers in the cars as that technology progressed and now they have no idea how to fix anything new if has and electrical issue outside of a starter or alternator. Sad but true fact and you D**n near need to be a scientist to work on some of this stuff. Luckily I started doing this as a profession in 1990 so it was interesting to me to learn as it all evolved. Today some of these cars have 10 computers that all talk to each other through a system called can bus and it can be tough to diagnose problems but this is just a good example of change and people have withered from it..
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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Ensembles are still very wet in the long range. Warm too. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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BC has introduced legislation to do away with the time change. Would be helpful if Washington, Oregon and California followed suit

Actually Washington, Oregon and California have already passed a law to stay on daylight savings time year around.  The problem is that the federal government will only allow states to go to year around standard time.  

 

Washington tried for several years to go to year around standard time, but it didn't get traction.  They decided to pursue year around DST, it passed.  Just read an article that 30 states are pushing to do away with the time change.

 

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/when-is-daylight-saving-time-do-you-need-to-turn-clock-back-in-washington-given-the-new-law-your-questions-answered/

 

 

 

There are folks trying to get the bill through, but congress is otherwise occupied at this time.

 

For me personally, while it would suck to have a late sunrise in the winter, I would rather deal with the chance of maybe getting out of work while it is still daylight in the winter, AND not be woken up by birds at 3-4am in the summer, AND still have the late daylight in the summer.

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Ensembles are still very wet in the long range. Warm too. 

 

 

Yeah... there is no sign of cold air on the 00Z EPS either.    And it was still drier than normal over the next 15 days.

 

5-10 day mean:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-

 

 

15-day precip anomaly:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf-anom-15day-

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Actually Washington, Oregon and California have already passed a law to stay on daylight savings time year around. The problem is that the federal government will only allow states to go to year around standard time.

 

Washington tried for several years to go to year around standard time, but it didn't get traction. They decided to pursue year around DST, it passed. Just read an article that 30 states are pushing to do away with the time change.

 

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/when-is-daylight-saving-time-do-you-need-to-turn-clock-back-in-washington-given-the-new-law-your-questions-answered/

 

 

 

There are folks trying to get the bill through, but congress is otherwise occupied at this time.

 

For me personally, while it would suck to have a late sunrise in the winter, I would rather deal with the chance of maybe getting out of work while it is still daylight in the winter, AND not be woken up by birds at 3-4am in the summer, AND still have the late daylight in the summer.

Good info. I did not know this. It doesn’t really matter to me, DST or standard time, I don’t find it impacts my sleep. But with the growing number of studies showing the negative impacts on people when the clocks are changed, it makes sense to me.
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32 at SLE 29 at EUG this morning. I believe this is the 7th straight low in the 20s at EUG.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Crazy weekend with the kiddos.  Nice chilly mornings and beautiful days.  Such a weird fall.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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People who b*tch and moan about the time change can get bent for all I care. First world problems. Be thankful for the roof over your head and the food in your pantry.

 

 

I am quite thankful for the roof over my head and food in my pantry. I am also thankful for my relative health.  But I also know that the time change has a very negative impact on me and many of my friends and co-workers.  It takes me a good 2 weeks to recover, and I have tried many different things to overcome it.  

 

I am assuming by your attitude that it does not affect you. You are lucky.  Many of us are not so lucky.  

 

Another thing I am thankful for is living in a free country where you can tell me to get bent and I can turn around and tell you to get bent and blow it out your millennial a$$!

 

Doing away with the time change cannot come soon enough for me. 

 

A co-worker posed an interesting question....what if we as a state decided to do away with the time change without waiting for the federal law? I know the answer is that the lawyers and courts would get all spun up...but its still a fun "what if"

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BTW the first two days of November had negative departures at EUG, SLE, and PDX.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Fog looks to increase early this week 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Up here inversion season doesn't begin until about the last week of November. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I love this weather. Crisp air and my turbo mustang makes huge power with the high pressure! I know most of you don't give a crap about fast cars but I just finished my mustang and put it on a wheel dyno. 1054 hp at the rear tires. Car has air conditioning cruise control over drive trans power windows and locks. Still gets about 22mpg on highway lol.

20160725_221219.jpg

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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I love this weather. Crisp air and my turbo mustang makes huge power with the high pressure! I know most of you don't give a crap about fast cars but I just finished my mustang and put it on a wheel dyno. 1054 hp at the rear tires. Car has air conditioning cruise control over drive trans power windows and locks. Still gets about 22mpg on highway lol.

Awesome!!

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I love this weather. Crisp air and my turbo mustang makes huge power with the high pressure! I know most of you don't give a crap about fast cars but I just finished my mustang and put it on a wheel dyno. 1054 hp at the rear tires. Car has air conditioning cruise control over drive trans power windows and locks. Still gets about 22mpg on highway lol.

A 1054hp hybrid????

 

That’s axle-breaking horsepower...

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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