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Winter 2019-2020 forecast contest.


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Make your guesses be known so that the best forecaster can have bragging rights come spring.

Mean monthly temperature departures November thru March and total snowfall for each station.

 

KBLI

 

KSEA

 

KPDX

 

KIAD

 

Due by roughly 11:59:59pm on November 5th

You guys want to add other stations?

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Make your guesses be known so that the best forecaster can have bragging rights come spring.

Mean temperature departures November thru March and total snowfall for each station.

 

KBLI

 

KSEA

 

KPDX

 

Due by roughly 11:59:59pm on November 5th

You guys want to add other stations?

I’m in. But maybe add Dulles (IAD)? Otherwise I have no chance. I’m way outmatched here, haha.

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BLI: +1.8, 6.2"

SEA: +2.5, 3.8"

PDX: +1.0, 5.5"

 

IAD: -1.2, 23.6"

 

Unofficial guesses but I suspect OLM will see 93" of the white stuff and finally break the Rogers Pass, MT record of -70 to set a new low temp mark for the lower 48.

 

Hillsboro will see no precipitation or temperatures of any kind for the entire winter. Montague, CA will have a billion year flood, rivaled only by the disastrous floods awaiting the Rattlesnake Ridge area.

 

Kayla's house will become an actual iceberg and break off into the Atlantic in the spring, sinking the Titanic.

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Make your guesses be known so that the best forecaster can have bragging rights come spring.

Mean temperature departures November thru March and total snowfall for each station.

 

KBLI

 

KSEA

 

KPDX

 

KIAD

 

Due by roughly 11:59:59pm on November 5th

You guys want to add other stations?

Month by month would be closer to previous seasonal forecast contests...5 months is a long mean.

Low. Solar.

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KBLI.

Nov. +2.5

Dec. -1.5

Jan. -5

Feb. -0.5

Mar. +2

 

Snowfall 16”

 

KSEA

Nov. +3

Dec. 0

Jan. -4

Feb. 0

Mar. +2

 

Snowfall 10”

 

KPDX

Nov. +2.5

Dec. -0.5

Jan. -5

Feb. 0

Mar. +2

 

Snowfall 9”

 

KIAD

Nov. -2

Dec. +1

Jan. +4

Feb. -1

Mar. -1

 

Snowfall 18”

 

My location. 35” of snow.

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Subject to revision

 

BLI:

Nov: +3.5

Dec: +1.5

Jan: -1.5

Feb: +0.5

Mar: -1

 

Snow: 6.5”

 

SEA:

Nov: +3

Dec: +2

Jan: -1

Feb: +1.5

Mar: -0.5

 

Snow: 5”

 

PDX:

Nov: +2

Dec: +2

Jan: -2

Feb: +1

Mar: 0.0

 

Snow: 16.5”

 

IAD:

Nov: -2

Dec: +1

Jan: -3

Feb: +3

Mar: -2

 

Snow: 20”

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16.5” at Pdx but only 5” in Seattle. Do you hate Puget Sound

Haha. I’m feeling a southern slider this year.

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I'm betting on one really cold month this winter and Dec - Feb average probably somewhere in the -2 to -3 F range.  Coldest winter of the century so far is on the table.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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KBLI

Nov: +1.5

Dec: -1.0

Jan: -4.0

Feb: +1.0

Mar: +1.5

 

Snowfall 11”

 

 

KSEA

Nov: +2.0

Dec: -0.5

Jan: -3.5

Feb: +1.5

Mar: +2.0

 

Snowfall 13”

 

 

KPDX

Nov: +1.5

Dec: -1.0

Jan: -5.5

Feb: +1.5

Mar: +2.5

 

Snowfall 17”

 

 

KIAD

Nov: -3.0

Dec: +1.0

Jan: +4.5

Feb: -1.0

Mar: -1.5

 

Snowfall 12”

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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Guest CulverJosh

Bellingham

 

Nov: +2.5

Dec: -3.5

Jan: +4.0

Feb: -4.5

March: -1.5

 

Total snowfall: 23 inches...one 12-16 incher

 

Seattle

 

Nov: +2.0

Dec: -3.0

Jan: +3.0

Feb: -2.0

March: -0.5

 

Total snowfall: 19 inches...one 12 incher

 

Pdx

 

Nov: +4.0

Dec: -4.5...lots of east wind

Jan: +0.5...east wind but no cold pool

Feb: -3.5..raging east wind

Mar: -1.0..zonal flow

 

Total snow: 16 inches..more if the cold pool is strong in December.

 

Dont care about Dulles

 

Redmond

 

Nov: +/- 0.0

Dec: -5.5...cold pool...big snowstorm

Jan: +1.0

Feb: -4.0...best chance for heavy snow

Mar: -1.0..one good snow (8-10")

 

Total snow: 32 inches...higher if the basin is loaded frequently.

 

My main thoughts are. Lots of blocking and lots of dry to wet periods. Dont think any pattern will hold more than 7-10 days. Some undercutting of pacific storms with last minute model details determining where landfall takes place. As with most years the details will not become clear until 8-12 hours before.

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Final numbers. Feb/Mar are a huge challenge for me still.

 

BLI:

Nov: +3

Dec: +1

Jan: -2

Feb: +1

Mar: +1

 

Snow: 6”

 

SEA:

Nov: +3

Dec: +1

Jan: -1

Feb: +1

Mar: +1

 

Snow: 5”

 

PDX:

Nov: +2

Dec: +2

Jan: -2

Feb: +1

Mar: +1

 

Snow: 12”

 

IAD:

Nov: -1

Dec: -1

Jan: -2

Feb: +2

Mar: -1

 

Snow: 20”

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BLI

 

Nov: +2
Dec: +1.5
Jan: -2.0
Feb: +1.0

Mar: -1.0
Snow: 12"

Seattle

Nov: +2.5
Dec: +2.0
Jan: -1.5
Feb: +0.5
Mar: -1.5

Snow: 4"

PDX

 

Nov: +1.2
Dec: +1.6
Jan: -1.5
Fen: +1.5
Mar: -0.5

Snow: 1.5"

 

IAD: 17" of snow

 

"My Location" 15" of snow 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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BLI

 

Nov: +1

Dec: 0.0

Jan: -1

Feb: +1

Mar: 0.0

 

Snow: 8"

 

PDX:

 

Nov: +1

Dec: -0.5

Jan: -1

Feb: +1

Mar: 0.0

 

Snow: 4"

 

SEA:

 

Nov: +1.5

Dec: +0.5

Jan: -0.5

Feb: +2

Mar: +1

 

Snow: 2"

 

IAD

 

Nov: -2

Dec: -2

Jan: +2

Feb: -2

Mar: +2

 

Snow: 1 Phil'

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I could envision a scenario where March flips stupid cold in the West this year with an early FW/late SSW and major MJO periodicity change.

 

Not that it’s likely, but I think there’s a pathway for it.

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  • 2 months later...

I don’t blame you for going into hiding for a little while.

:) Not hiding...work has been crazy and honestly I just got burnt out on weather and the forum. I'm sure I'll start posting again more regularly at some point, but too much other stuff going on right now for me to spend much time on here.

 

A lot of people picked January to be cold... hopefully they're not all in hiding!

Low. Solar.

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:) Not hiding...work has been crazy and honestly I just got burnt out on weather and the forum. I'm sure I'll start posting again more regularly at some point, but too much other stuff going on right now for me to spend much time on here.

 

A lot of people picked January to be cold... hopefully they're not all in hiding!

 

Yep I even admitted today I thought January would be decent, or at least on par with something like January 2016.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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