Veteran's Day System

[St Paul Storm]

Things have whitened up here. I’m glad the frigid blast isn’t going to leave us high and dry. Temp down to 21F. Chill of 12F.

[East Dubzz]

Been busy lately and honestly had no idea we were supposed to get snow. Nice surprise!

[Niko]

Wish we had a tavli tournament out my way...

 

 

Can you play the game tavli (Backgammon)?

 

Also, are you going to get decent snow from this upcoming snowstorm? I am thinking LES will kick in for ya as well.

[Niko]

I think its safe to say in high confidence that a 5-8"+ snowfall for SMI is in the cards.

[hlcater]

latest HRRR/RAP runs are notably drier than they have been. Down to max 0.3" of QPF for E IA.

[jaster220]

18z HRDPS a smidge less snow here? lost track since some maps are 10:1 and others Kuchera. Models may have over-shot a bit too. SEMI still looking strong.

 

[indianajohn]

Yes whenever I get a chance..

 

I hope we can a little early taste of LES.. might as well get some snow with how cold it’s going to get!!

 

 

 

Can you play the game tavli (Backgammon)?

 

Also, are you going to get decent snow from this upcoming snowstorm? I am thinking LES will kick in for ya as well.

[Niko]

18z HRDPS a smidge less snow here? lost track since some maps are 10:1 and others Kuchera. Models may have over-shot a bit too. SEMI still looking strong.

 

20191110 18z HRDPS_10to1_Snowfall to h48.png

Amigo....I am approaching a foot in that map...holy crap!

[Niko]

Yes whenever I get a chance..

 

I hope we can a little early taste of LES.. might as well get some snow with how cold it’s going to get!!

 

 

Awesome!

 

Exactly..bare ground and frigid temps is a big no-no!

[Jaycee]

Seems like I’m in a pretty good spot. LOT thinks the highest accumulations will be the north side of the metro, so right in my backyard. Guess we’ll see what happens, should be interesting

[jaster220]

Per GRR's pm AFD..

 

The synoptic event which comes together late tonight and Monday

morning is related to lift in the right entrance region of a
150kt H2 jet streak. Strong mid level FGEN forcing along the
tight baroclinic zone should result in a banded look to the
precipitation and may result in non-uniform snow totals across the
advisory area - despite the model consensus for higher QPF
amounts the farther south and east you go.

[Minny_Weather]

The SW MI snowbelt looks to get over a foot over the next 24 hours. But nooooooo, let's issue an advisory.

 

I try to not criticize pro mets too much, but at times I swear I could do a better job than GRR.

[Grizzcoat]

DMX with one of the their best AFD's

 

Issued at 329 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2019

Highlights...

-Several inches of snowfall, with breezy winds, likely across
central Iowa tonight
-Near-record cold temperatures probable Monday afternoon, and
possible Tuesday morning
-Another quick-hitting round of snow likely for parts of Iowa Wed
PM-Thu AM.

Tonight`s Snowfall Potential...

Key Points:
Location/Amounts: High confidence in snow across central to
southern Iowa. A tight gradient between the highest snowfall
totals likely near I-80... with the highest totals south. This
means there could be a difference of an inch or two in snow within
25 miles. In total, 1 to 3 inches is expected from around Highway
30 to the IA/MO border. The highest amounts of 2 to 3 inches...
with a few locations possibly seeing 4 inches or slightly more...
should be near I-80 from Dallas County (my county) through Poweshiek County.

 

Scientific Notes:
Hi-res models coming into notably better agreement at 21z Sun
than they were at in their 12z runs. Models converging around
having a band of potentially heavier snow oriented from west-east
around the Des Moines metro and along I-80 from around the 03 to
05z Mon timeframe... with reduced vsbys persisting until around
11z Mon. The strongest frontogenetical forcing exists around
750mb to 700mb... with forcing continuing to 650mb... which is
where we start to phase with a saturated DGZ. Am thinking snow
totals may be underdone, if anything... so will be watching this
closely... starting to see 12 microbars/sec through the DGZ
extending into SW Iowa. So, may need to be ready to boost totals
in this part of the state. Snow ratios around the 13:1 to 17:1
seems to be a fairly good consensus solution.

Monday-Tuesday Near-Record Cold...

Key Points:
High confidence in well-advertised near-record cold
temperatures during this timeframe. Today`s noon temperature in
Grand Forks, ND was 16 degrees... and this is a flavor of the air
heading our way. The coldest high temperature for Monday 11/11 in
Des Moines is 24 degrees. By Monday afternoon, air temperatures
will likely be in the teens in Des Moines and areas north of I-80.
As has been mentioned above, wind speeds will solidly be in the
15 to 25 mph range, with gusts approaching 30 mph. This will
support wind chill values near 0 degrees across the state Monday
morning and into the afternoon hours.

Skies should clear out heading into Tuesday morning, allowing
temperatures to plummet. Air temperatures Tuesday morning should be
near 0 degrees in northern Iowa, and near 5 degrees around the Des
Moines metro... a range which is near the record low temperatures
for a 11/12. Wind chill values Tuesday morning may approach -10
degrees.

Scientific Notes:
Have lowered temperatures a few degrees across central Iowa as
a snowpack will likely exist... so am expecting non-uniform/non-
traditional temperatures through Tuesday night. For Monday
night... seemingly in this setup this time of year, temperatures
fall further across northern Iowa relative to the rest of the
state. So, have lowered min temps a few degrees in northern
Iowa... which may still not be enough. Could see lows falling
closer to -5 to -10 degree range across this part of the state.

WOW

 

and than they even talk about a potential 2" more later in the work week but that's for another thread

[jaster220]

The SW MI snowbelt looks to get over a foot over the next 24 hours. But nooooooo, let's issue an advisory.

 

I try to not criticize pro mets too much, but at times I swear I could do a better job than GRR.

 

They make themselves an easy target with their approach, that's for sure. Forget the whole LES scene (which they pride themselves in focusing on) and just look at SR model trends. 18z NAM (they seem very fond of GFS/NAM after all) has me pushing the 3" mark by 7 am, and at h36 has 9-10" along my commute here to Jackson. But, let's just roll with a 2-5 WWA and call it a day's work. 

 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

23z HRRR has 0.20-0.30" in the best band through Iowa.  The 0.40" is gone, likely because the HRRR, for much of the day, was too aggressive breaking out snow this evening.  The wetter runs had a solid, thick band of snow from central Iowa through Cedar Rapids by 6pm, but at 6:30pm the snow is still struggling to develop over central Iowa.

 

Here's the 18z Euro

[Clinton]

18z Euro good luck everybody

[Hawkeye]

18z Euro good luck everybody

 

That map goes out to 90 hours, so it's contaminated by the Wednesday precip... particularly in Iowa.

[Niko]

The SW MI snowbelt looks to get over a foot over the next 24 hours. But nooooooo, let's issue an advisory.

 

I try to not criticize pro mets too much, but at times I swear I could do a better job than GRR.

I know...its ridiculous!

[Niko]

Snow is already starting to blossom on the radar to my far west. Temps are steadily falling as well.

[Clinton]

That map goes out to 90 hours, so it's contaminated by the Wednesday precip... particularly in Iowa.

Just realized that here we go.

[jaster220]

23z HRRR has 0.20-0.30" in the best band through Iowa.  The 0.40" is gone, likely because the HRRR, for much of the day, was too aggressive breaking out snow this evening.  The wetter runs had a solid, thick band of snow from central Iowa through Cedar Rapids by 6pm, but at 6:30pm the snow is still struggling to develop over central Iowa.

 

Here's the 18z Euro

ecmwf-deterministic-illinoisindiana-total_snow_kuchera-3516800.png

 

Yeah, noticed the same trend. Precip starting later, and I think to some extent, getting better organized/amped over my way. At least the NAM fwiw

[Madtown]

flakes here

[jaster220]

I know...its ridiculous!

 

That office is getting ripped on AmWx's storm thread - just sayin'

[jaster220]

I salute this forecast, the flag that stands for freedom, and ALL VET'S who have served to make it possible! Thank You to every one across this great land! 

 

 

 

 

 

[james1976]

Very light snow falling here!

[jaster220]

Had some -RN this afternoon with the frontal passage. I will say that the overcast and chilly low 40s certainly had that "feel" of impending winter conditions. 

 

Now radar turning more blue than green to my west..

 

[Niko]

My temps are at 36F and dropping steadily w cloudy skies. Snow is on the way!

[james1976]

@Grizz....yeah the entire AFD was a great read!

[Niko]

Had some -RN this afternoon with the frontal passage. I will say that the overcast and chilly low 40s certainly had that "feel" of impending winter conditions. 

 

Now radar turning more blue than green to my west..

 

20191110 GLs Radar 8pm.PNG

Exactly...same here as well.

[Niko]

That office is getting ripped on AmWx's storm thread - just sayin'

 

5-8"+inches on the way and NOAA has my area under a WWA

[bud2380]

Radar looks good in Cedar Rapids. Anything hitting the ground?

[jaster220]

  18z NAM 12k keeps flakes flying for 20 hrs here, with temps supportive of accumulating. 

 

 

Looks like 7" (+/-) with 10:1 ratios, tho IWX's AFD mentions a bit higher is possible. Sure looks like it has come into agreement with the other Hi-res models in bringing the heaviest swath up to the 2nd tier of counties in SMI. 

 

[Madtown]

^wow I'd take that!

 

Nice snow globe at Lambeau today!

[Niko]

[jaster220]

 

5-8"+inches on the way and NOAA has my area under a WWA

 

I'm sure we lose some net depth on warm roads, etc. But it's that same slush freezing hard as temps fall into the 20's that make for much worse driving conditions than say an all powder dry snow that's just blowing off the freeways with every gust of wind. 

[Niko]

  18z NAM 12k keeps flakes flying for 20 hrs here, with temps supportive of accumulating. 

 

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_fh10-30.gif

 

Looks like 7" (+/-) with 10:1 ratios, tho IWX's AFD mentions a bit higher is possible. Sure looks like it has come into agreement with the other Hi-res models in bringing the heaviest swath up to the 2nd tier of counties in SMI. 

 

20191110 18z nam h42 snowfall SLR.png

Yes, this looks like a long duration of falling snow. Snow here starts tanite and ends tomorrow nite.

[Stacsh]

I’ll be happy with 1-2” here in Grand Rapids. We will get ours this winter. South and east of here can have it this time.

[Niko]

I'm sure we lose some net depth on warm roads, etc. But it's that same slush freezing hard as temps fall into the 20's that make for much worse driving conditions than say an all powder dry snow that's just blowing off the freeways with every gust of wind. 

Don't forget, it has been very cold during the last couple of days and even beyond that, so that being said, streets and sidewalks are already frozen, which should make the snow have no trouble sticking. Another factor is that arctic air will be rushing in during this snowstorm. My highs tomorrow remain in the 20s w snow, heavy at times. Temps by late pm to early evening will most likely be in the teens w snow still falling.

[jaster220]

I mentioned before that it was possible last-minute trends for a stronger system could mean CPC's map for Monday would be off by quite a bit as they had none of SMI getting into plowable snow amts. This seems to happen a lot the past few years, at least around here. Storms look like "meh" at d5 to d3, then they issue a map and things start trending up, lol

 

[Hawkeye]

Radar looks good in Cedar Rapids. Anything hitting the ground?

 

Yes, light snow has begun.

 

One thing to watch for.... the last few HRRR runs show a thin band streaming east through Cedar Rapids around now, but then it lifts north of the city for a couple hours before sagging back south into CR.