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Veteran's Day System


Tom

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There was a rumor of a Veteran's Day storm long ago and now the day is closing into sight.  While the nation celebrates and honors our great veterans who have served our loved nation, the weather will also be taking center stage across the heartland and points east.  Is there going to be a decent snow after all???  The models have been wavering on the overall strength in recent runs.  Does that continue or will we see better organization??  Nonetheless, the Arctic air behind this storm means business and old records will almost certainly fall.

 

 

Let's discuss....

 

For those in the LES belts, this is going to be a fun period and hopefully some of our posters in MI can score Bigly.

 

 

12z JMA still showing a decent amount of moisture...

 

jma_apcpn_us_5.png

 

 

 

12z Euro....looks very similar to the above map...

 

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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LOT has some interesting wording in terms to the LES potential into NE IL/NW IN...

 

 

 

Large
scale height falls indicative of the deepening trough, combined
with tightening of the low level baroclinic zone on the cool/north
side of the surface frontal zone and upper level divergence in
the right entrance to an upper level jet streak, provides the
forcing for ascent. Cooling of the column, and an increasing depth
of the -12 to -18C dendritic growth zone into Monday morning
point to the potential for some accumulating light snow. In
addition, low level winds turn north-northeasterly by 12Z Monday,
with some indications that a convergent band of lake
enhancement/effect snow potential in to the IL/IN border region as
delta-T`s increase to near 20C and inversion heights increase to
10 kft
. This Sunday night through Monday morning period will need
to be monitored, with the potential for accumulating snow to
impact the morning commute over parts of the forecast area.
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There will undoubtedly be lake enhanced snow on the IL shore, but the big question is what temps are like near the shore during that time. Water temps are still low-mid 40s near shore and upper 40s farther out. May help to be a little inland.

Yup, I was thinking the same but we may encounter a similar scenario like what happened with the Halloween storm as winds turned out to be  more northerly instead of off the lake.  However, one can argue against that bc this time we will certainly be able to tap into true arctic air.  I think the odds of having Lehs/LES are growing with this set up.  I'd like to see a few more runs though to be more confident.

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Gut call. 2-4" level event, with potential to over-achieve due to late-game amping. I'll be stoked if we can manage that at this early date.  :)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Gut call. 2-4" level event, with potential to over-achieve due to late-game amping. I'll be stoked if we can manage that at this early date.  :)

You are looking good w this system, also, that LES machine will kick in for ya as well. ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NOAA:

 

The main weather concern for this forecast period will be the
potential for widespread accumulating snow on Sunday night into
Monday
. Global models have reached better consensus depicting low
pressure developing over the upper Ohio Valley on Monday in response
to a shortwave diving into the region from Manitoba. Latest
deterministic runs are fairly consistent in developing the low along
the baroclinic zone after it clears our area, which gives reasonable
confidence that our area may fall within the northwestern flank
deformation forcing. With post-frontal temps in the upper 20s,
expect snow that falls to stick. Current forecast calls for an area-
wide coverage of several inches of snow with the best chance south
of I-69.
Expect forecast refinements this weekend as additional data
is ingested and the track and strength of the low is better
discerned.

 

:D :ph34r:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NOAA:

 

The main weather concern for this forecast period will be the

potential for widespread accumulating snow on Sunday night into

Monday. Global models have reached better consensus depicting low

pressure developing over the upper Ohio Valley on Monday in response

to a shortwave diving into the region from Manitoba. Latest

deterministic runs are fairly consistent in developing the low along

the baroclinic zone after it clears our area, which gives reasonable

confidence that our area may fall within the northwestern flank

deformation forcing. With post-frontal temps in the upper 20s,

expect snow that falls to stick. Current forecast calls for an area-

wide coverage of several inches of snow with the best chance south

of I-69. Expect forecast refinements this weekend as additional data

is ingested and the track and strength of the low is better

discerned.

 

:D :ph34r:

 

NICE to see at least one office excited about the potential. Overnight AFD from GRR did not even mention anything but LES, not even that there would be a surface "wave".   (typical seeing who did the write-up)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Nice to see SMI comfortably in the 20s Monday pm, versus the mid-30s with the Halloween storm. Nice thermal gradient to Cent OH too. That alone makes me think this could result in increased f-gen response as we get closer. 

 

20191108 12z EuroHR 2m Temps h78.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Lake enhancement looks like it could make a couple inches' worth of difference for me. It's crazy to see how consistent the models have been with the track of this thing. With lake enhancement, I could end up seeing over 6" from this if all goes well.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Neither the surface wave potential, nor the S Lake Michigan LES event made the cut on today's CPC hazards. Wouldn't be the first time things trended better inside d3 and proved them wrong, but still feeling this is a WWA event for my region, unless things really over-achieve. 

 

20191108 hazards_d3_7_contours.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Nice to see SMI comfortably in the 20s Monday pm, versus the mid-30s with the Halloween storm. Nice thermal gradient to Cent OH too. That alone makes me think this could result in increased f-gen response as we get closer. 

 

attachicon.gif20191108 12z EuroHR 2m Temps h78.png

Exactly. Whatever falls, will stick on everything! Not loosing any melting on pavement, that's for sure.

 

Btw: Weather forecasters have snow moving in as quickly as Sunday night.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Bone dry for Grand Rapids.  A dusting at most.  No lake effect with NNW winds monday.    SEMI might get a few inches.  Good luck to Niko, and perhaps Jaster might get lucky?

:D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I had to laugh at OAX's forecast. Just a bit specific on timing I would think...  :D  :D  :D  :wacko:  :wacko:  :wacko: 

 

Sunday Night:
Drizzle and snow likely before 2am, then snow likely, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle between 2am and 5am, then snow likely after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 17. North wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

 

 

 

 

and one mile north of me:

 

 

Sunday Night

A chance of drizzle and snow before 7pm, then snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 17. North wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. 

 

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Clinton-

 

I think you are looking pretty good w this one, right?

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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On the edge with the GFS. Need more organisation.

Still early in the game bud. This is not set in stone yet for anyone. I will feel more comfortable by tomorrow nite w what the models are spitting out.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NAM completely craps the storm out, giving most outside of snow belts under an inch from the system.

 

Man, sure hammers my old homestead (again) after that region scored 8-16" yesterday. Looking historic for them already. Meanwhile for us, it's odd that several globals are now showing a decent event, but usually robust NAM isn't. Did they deflate that model recently or something? 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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18z GFS....

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

When did the GFS join the others in showing a system? Everyone was saying it had "nada"  :unsure:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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18z GFS even shows a refresher clipper Thurs

 

20191108 18z gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_h138.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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18z GFS even shows a refresher clipper Thurs

 

attachicon.gif20191108 18z gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_h138.png

Let Ma Nature keep bringing them in. Gotta have a nice glacier for Thanksgiving. :)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NAM completely craps the storm out, giving most outside of snow belts under an inch from the system.

 

NAM's quite a bit warmer than all the globals, which is a deal-breaker with an early event when a few deg's either side of freezing has major implications on snow production and accum's.

 

NAM

 

20191109 0z NAM 2m Temps h60.png

 

ICON (for ex.)

 

20191109 0z ICON h60 2m Temps.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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waiting to see the break in the cold.....

 

Comes the week before Turkey Day

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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NICE to see at least one office excited about the potential. Overnight AFD from GRR did not even mention anything but LES, not even that there would be a surface "wave".   (typical seeing who did the write-up)

 

K, pm AFD at least mentioning accum's now for Monday morning/day. 

 

At this time, it looks like a just light dusting of accumulations

for most of the area Sunday night/Monday morning, but there is a

signal in the guidance that 1-3 inch accumulations are possible by

18Z Monday south and east of GRR due to a period of stronger FGEN

forcing along the baroclinic zone.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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And for the LES potential. Some places could get a dumping.

 

 

Guidance is in agreement that sub-freezing temperatures will

arrive by 12Z Monday and ECMWF 2 meter temps are in the mid 20s at
that time, so certainly some potential for slick conditions Monday
morning if there is enough snow to coat the roads overnight -
after highs Sunday reaching or exceeding 40.

More winter weather travel impacts are likely Monday night and
Tuesday west of Highway 131 as potentially heavy lake effect snow
showers/whiteouts impact the area. Low temps Monday night fall
into the teens and highs on Tuesday will be only in the mid 20s,
which support icy road conditions and difficult travel. Record min
max temps are possible on Tuesday.

Currently it looks like the predominant wind direction will be
NNW, which favors the lakeshore from Holland south, and parts of
Mason/Lake Counties as well. Fcst soundings show inversion
heights of 10K ft or more with good lift in the DGZ. It would not
be surprising to see localized amounts near a foot by Tuesday
evening
before snow intensity decreases quickly Tuesday night

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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A brief warm-up (low 40s) maybe mid...cold air returns quickly though.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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waiting to see the break in the cold.....

 

A brief warm-up (low 40s) maybe mid...cold air returns quickly though.

 

Comes the week before Turkey Day

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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0z GEM treating Tom and us eastward pretty well (other models are mixed results)

 

20191109 0zGEM Snowfall h72.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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00z Euro...holding steady for IL/IN into the "Mitt" and OH....as long as the snow is flying with cold temps and blustery winds I'm going to take it as a win.  Dry arctic fronts are no fun, so to see the Euro/JMA/GGEM still advertising a couple inches of snow here is fine by me.

 

 sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

jma_apcpn_us_3.png

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:)  /\ nice looking maps Tom. Euro in love with 94 corridor here in SMI. Looks like a wintry week ahead. A year ago today I recorded my first 1" of snow for last winter, so the early starting call, and analogs to last season will be confirmed if I again get a similar amount Monday. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Toledo-Monroe is probably the biggest jump the models have made so far in the bullseye. That's only 15 miles.

 

Here's 00z Euro. I'll take this despite me being in a sucker hole. Just as long as we get the clipper GFS is advertising as well.

Euro 12.png

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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