Tom Posted November 8, 2019 Report Share Posted November 8, 2019 There was a rumor of a Veteran's Day storm long ago and now the day is closing into sight. While the nation celebrates and honors our great veterans who have served our loved nation, the weather will also be taking center stage across the heartland and points east. Is there going to be a decent snow after all??? The models have been wavering on the overall strength in recent runs. Does that continue or will we see better organization?? Nonetheless, the Arctic air behind this storm means business and old records will almost certainly fall. Let's discuss.... For those in the LES belts, this is going to be a fun period and hopefully some of our posters in MI can score Bigly. 12z JMA still showing a decent amount of moisture... 12z Euro....looks very similar to the above map... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2019 LOT has some interesting wording in terms to the LES potential into NE IL/NW IN... Largescale height falls indicative of the deepening trough, combinedwith tightening of the low level baroclinic zone on the cool/northside of the surface frontal zone and upper level divergence inthe right entrance to an upper level jet streak, provides theforcing for ascent. Cooling of the column, and an increasing depthof the -12 to -18C dendritic growth zone into Monday morningpoint to the potential for some accumulating light snow. Inaddition, low level winds turn north-northeasterly by 12Z Monday,with some indications that a convergent band of lakeenhancement/effect snow potential in to the IL/IN border region asdelta-T`s increase to near 20C and inversion heights increase to10 kft. This Sunday night through Monday morning period will needto be monitored, with the potential for accumulating snow toimpact the morning commute over parts of the forecast area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2019 Report Share Posted November 8, 2019 There will undoubtedly be lake enhanced snow on the IL shore, but the big question is what temps are like near the shore during that time. Water temps are still low-mid 40s near shore and upper 40s farther out. May help to be a little inland. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2019 There will undoubtedly be lake enhanced snow on the IL shore, but the big question is what temps are like near the shore during that time. Water temps are still low-mid 40s near shore and upper 40s farther out. May help to be a little inland.Yup, I was thinking the same but we may encounter a similar scenario like what happened with the Halloween storm as winds turned out to be more northerly instead of off the lake. However, one can argue against that bc this time we will certainly be able to tap into true arctic air. I think the odds of having Lehs/LES are growing with this set up. I'd like to see a few more runs though to be more confident. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 8, 2019 Report Share Posted November 8, 2019 Gut call. 2-4" level event, with potential to over-achieve due to late-game amping. I'll be stoked if we can manage that at this early date. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 8, 2019 Report Share Posted November 8, 2019 Looks like 4-6" as of now. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 8, 2019 Report Share Posted November 8, 2019 Gut call. 2-4" level event, with potential to over-achieve due to late-game amping. I'll be stoked if we can manage that at this early date. You are looking good w this system, also, that LES machine will kick in for ya as well. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 8, 2019 Report Share Posted November 8, 2019 NOAA: The main weather concern for this forecast period will be thepotential for widespread accumulating snow on Sunday night intoMonday. Global models have reached better consensus depicting lowpressure developing over the upper Ohio Valley on Monday in responseto a shortwave diving into the region from Manitoba. Latestdeterministic runs are fairly consistent in developing the low alongthe baroclinic zone after it clears our area, which gives reasonableconfidence that our area may fall within the northwestern flankdeformation forcing. With post-frontal temps in the upper 20s,expect snow that falls to stick. Current forecast calls for an area-wide coverage of several inches of snow with the best chance southof I-69. Expect forecast refinements this weekend as additional datais ingested and the track and strength of the low is betterdiscerned. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 8, 2019 Report Share Posted November 8, 2019 18z NAM is a nothing burger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 8, 2019 Report Share Posted November 8, 2019 NOAA: The main weather concern for this forecast period will be thepotential for widespread accumulating snow on Sunday night intoMonday. Global models have reached better consensus depicting lowpressure developing over the upper Ohio Valley on Monday in responseto a shortwave diving into the region from Manitoba. Latestdeterministic runs are fairly consistent in developing the low alongthe baroclinic zone after it clears our area, which gives reasonableconfidence that our area may fall within the northwestern flankdeformation forcing. With post-frontal temps in the upper 20s,expect snow that falls to stick. Current forecast calls for an area-wide coverage of several inches of snow with the best chance southof I-69. Expect forecast refinements this weekend as additional datais ingested and the track and strength of the low is betterdiscerned. NICE to see at least one office excited about the potential. Overnight AFD from GRR did not even mention anything but LES, not even that there would be a surface "wave". (typical seeing who did the write-up) 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted November 8, 2019 Report Share Posted November 8, 2019 LOT mentions a concensus of 1-3 inches sunday night. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 8, 2019 Report Share Posted November 8, 2019 Nice to see SMI comfortably in the 20s Monday pm, versus the mid-30s with the Halloween storm. Nice thermal gradient to Cent OH too. That alone makes me think this could result in increased f-gen response as we get closer. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 8, 2019 Report Share Posted November 8, 2019 Bone dry for Grand Rapids. A dusting at most. No lake effect with NNW winds monday. SEMI might get a few inches. Good luck to Niko, and perhaps Jaster might get lucky? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 8, 2019 Report Share Posted November 8, 2019 Lake enhancement looks like it could make a couple inches' worth of difference for me. It's crazy to see how consistent the models have been with the track of this thing. With lake enhancement, I could end up seeing over 6" from this if all goes well. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 8, 2019 Report Share Posted November 8, 2019 Neither the surface wave potential, nor the S Lake Michigan LES event made the cut on today's CPC hazards. Wouldn't be the first time things trended better inside d3 and proved them wrong, but still feeling this is a WWA event for my region, unless things really over-achieve. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2019 18z GFS.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 8, 2019 Report Share Posted November 8, 2019 Nice to see SMI comfortably in the 20s Monday pm, versus the mid-30s with the Halloween storm. Nice thermal gradient to Cent OH too. That alone makes me think this could result in increased f-gen response as we get closer. 20191108 12z EuroHR 2m Temps h78.pngExactly. Whatever falls, will stick on everything! Not loosing any melting on pavement, that's for sure. Btw: Weather forecasters have snow moving in as quickly as Sunday night. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 8, 2019 Report Share Posted November 8, 2019 Bone dry for Grand Rapids. A dusting at most. No lake effect with NNW winds monday. SEMI might get a few inches. Good luck to Niko, and perhaps Jaster might get lucky? Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted November 8, 2019 Report Share Posted November 8, 2019 I had to laugh at OAX's forecast. Just a bit specific on timing I would think... Sunday Night:Drizzle and snow likely before 2am, then snow likely, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle between 2am and 5am, then snow likely after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 17. North wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. and one mile north of me: Sunday NightA chance of drizzle and snow before 7pm, then snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 17. North wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 8, 2019 Report Share Posted November 8, 2019 Clinton- I think you are looking pretty good w this one, right? 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 8, 2019 Report Share Posted November 8, 2019 NAM completely craps the storm out, giving most outside of snow belts under an inch from the system. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 8, 2019 Report Share Posted November 8, 2019 Clinton- I think you are looking pretty good w this one, right?On the edge with the GFS. Need more organisation. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 8, 2019 Report Share Posted November 8, 2019 A low of 4F now in the point for Monday night. Pretty amazing to get that low, in early Nov, without snow on the ground. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 9, 2019 Report Share Posted November 9, 2019 On the edge with the GFS. Need more organisation.Still early in the game bud. This is not set in stone yet for anyone. I will feel more comfortable by tomorrow nite w what the models are spitting out. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 9, 2019 Report Share Posted November 9, 2019 NAM completely craps the storm out, giving most outside of snow belts under an inch from the system. Man, sure hammers my old homestead (again) after that region scored 8-16" yesterday. Looking historic for them already. Meanwhile for us, it's odd that several globals are now showing a decent event, but usually robust NAM isn't. Did they deflate that model recently or something? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 9, 2019 Report Share Posted November 9, 2019 18z GFS.... When did the GFS join the others in showing a system? Everyone was saying it had "nada" Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 9, 2019 Report Share Posted November 9, 2019 18z GFS even shows a refresher clipper Thurs 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 9, 2019 Report Share Posted November 9, 2019 18z GFS even shows a refresher clipper Thurs 20191108 18z gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_h138.pngLet Ma Nature keep bringing them in. Gotta have a nice glacier for Thanksgiving. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 9, 2019 Report Share Posted November 9, 2019 NAM completely craps the storm out, giving most outside of snow belts under an inch from the system. NAM's quite a bit warmer than all the globals, which is a deal-breaker with an early event when a few deg's either side of freezing has major implications on snow production and accum's. NAM ICON (for ex.) 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 9, 2019 Report Share Posted November 9, 2019 waiting to see the break in the cold..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 9, 2019 Report Share Posted November 9, 2019 waiting to see the break in the cold..... Comes the week before Turkey Day Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 9, 2019 Report Share Posted November 9, 2019 NICE to see at least one office excited about the potential. Overnight AFD from GRR did not even mention anything but LES, not even that there would be a surface "wave". (typical seeing who did the write-up) K, pm AFD at least mentioning accum's now for Monday morning/day. At this time, it looks like a just light dusting of accumulationsfor most of the area Sunday night/Monday morning, but there is asignal in the guidance that 1-3 inch accumulations are possible by18Z Monday south and east of GRR due to a period of stronger FGENforcing along the baroclinic zone. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 9, 2019 Report Share Posted November 9, 2019 And for the LES potential. Some places could get a dumping. Guidance is in agreement that sub-freezing temperatures willarrive by 12Z Monday and ECMWF 2 meter temps are in the mid 20s atthat time, so certainly some potential for slick conditions Mondaymorning if there is enough snow to coat the roads overnight -after highs Sunday reaching or exceeding 40.More winter weather travel impacts are likely Monday night andTuesday west of Highway 131 as potentially heavy lake effect snowshowers/whiteouts impact the area. Low temps Monday night fallinto the teens and highs on Tuesday will be only in the mid 20s,which support icy road conditions and difficult travel. Record minmax temps are possible on Tuesday.Currently it looks like the predominant wind direction will beNNW, which favors the lakeshore from Holland south, and parts ofMason/Lake Counties as well. Fcst soundings show inversionheights of 10K ft or more with good lift in the DGZ. It would notbe surprising to see localized amounts near a foot by Tuesdayevening before snow intensity decreases quickly Tuesday night 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 9, 2019 Report Share Posted November 9, 2019 A brief warm-up (low 40s) maybe mid...cold air returns quickly though. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 9, 2019 Report Share Posted November 9, 2019 waiting to see the break in the cold..... A brief warm-up (low 40s) maybe mid...cold air returns quickly though. Comes the week before Turkey Day Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 9, 2019 Report Share Posted November 9, 2019 0z GEM treating Tom and us eastward pretty well (other models are mixed results) 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 9, 2019 Report Share Posted November 9, 2019 0z GEM treating Tom and us eastward pretty well (other models are mixed results) 20191109 0zGEM Snowfall h72.pngDefinitely juicing that lake effect. Just cold here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 9, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2019 00z Euro...holding steady for IL/IN into the "Mitt" and OH....as long as the snow is flying with cold temps and blustery winds I'm going to take it as a win. Dry arctic fronts are no fun, so to see the Euro/JMA/GGEM still advertising a couple inches of snow here is fine by me. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 9, 2019 Report Share Posted November 9, 2019 /\ nice looking maps Tom. Euro in love with 94 corridor here in SMI. Looks like a wintry week ahead. A year ago today I recorded my first 1" of snow for last winter, so the early starting call, and analogs to last season will be confirmed if I again get a similar amount Monday. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 9, 2019 Report Share Posted November 9, 2019 Toledo-Monroe is probably the biggest jump the models have made so far in the bullseye. That's only 15 miles. Here's 00z Euro. I'll take this despite me being in a sucker hole. Just as long as we get the clipper GFS is advertising as well. 4 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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