jaster220 Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 I think accumulations will be higher, especially where that mesolow forms. Regardless, LES gets involved Tuesday nite. Port Huron might even deliver the goods in mby. That wind component might be just perfect. I believe the more east you are, the better shot you have with this snowstorm. Last November's biggie was a rain-to-snow transition scenario and warm air won the day. By the time it switched, half the qpf had fallen as run-off. Yesterday's models (at least the Euro) were showing this storm as all snow, getting temps sub-freezing prior to moisture streaming in (like Nov 23, 2015). Now it seems models are seeing a bit more liquid Sunday pm into the night prior to a switch to snow. Hopefully, any added moisture isn't just rainfall as the CF sinks south but actually adds to snow totals. Will need to watch that closely. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 00Z NAM and 3KM both wetter in IA-- probably good news for all. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Last November's biggie was a rain-to-snow transition scenario and warm air won the day. By the time it switched, half the qpf had fallen as run-off. Yesterday's models (at least the Euro) were showing this storm as all snow, getting temps sub-freezing prior to moisture streaming in (like Nov 23, 2015). Now it seems models are seeing a bit more liquid Sunday pm into the night prior to a switch to snow. Hopefully, any added moisture isn't just rainfall as the CF sinks south but actually adds to snow totals. Will need to watch that closely. Good point. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 This arctic air driving due south across a wide portion of the midwest reminds me so much of the March 1st, 2016 set-up. We'd gotten that major storm a few days earlier on 2/24-25, but then in Nino fashion, temps torched on the 27th-29th, before a similar arctic front came rushing in from the north just in time to provide an all snow event. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 12z Euro held steady and looks to have upwards of 0.35-0.4 qpf here. Does anyone have a Kuchera snow map for that run? ThxI think its very good. Portions of MI exceeds 6", especially, Southern MI.... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Anyone have info on the latest NAM? Curious to see if its playing catch-up w the other models. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Anyone have info on the latest NAM? Curious to see if its playing catch-up w the other models. NAM 12k going bonkers with qpf now for SEMI 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 3km nam- https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019111000&fh=60&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=nam4km 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 12KM nam- https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2019111000&fh=60&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc= 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 18z Euro I'm rooting for you. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 NAM middle of the pack for mby, but sure gives SEMI a huge boost via Lk Huron. Niko's gonna rake in if it's right. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 18z Euro I'm rooting for you. Thanks for posting buddy. Staying steady with 6-8 ish around SCMI which would be really nice. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Major kudos to Tom for calling "storm day" from miles and miles away! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Thanks for posting buddy. Staying steady with 6-8 ish around SCMI which would be really nice. Good luck I hope you get it. You and Niko are going to get buried this winter! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 ICON is very close to the Euro. The HRRR and NAM are more in southern Iowa. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 NAM 12k going bonkers with qpf now for SEMI 20191110 0z namconus_qpf to h69.png Am I reading .75'-1.00"??!! Correct me IF I am wrong...If its right....6-10" by NAM 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 NAM middle of the pack for mby, but sure gives SEMI a huge boost via Lk Huron. Niko's gonna rake in if it's right. 20191110 0z namconus_Snowfall to h69.png 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Good luck I hope you get it. You and Niko are going to get buried this winter! You're extremely generous Clinton, I hope this winter's good down your way as well. Speaking of the bolded..Tom? is this on your radar amigo? 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 00Z GFS keeps the wetter trend going here in C.IA--- borderline WWA. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Welcome, GFS. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 00Z GFS keeps the wetter trend going here in C.IA--- borderline WWA.Also keeps trending further west, which should be good for everybody. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 -https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=ncus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019111000&fh=48 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Welcome, GFS. Maybe NOW my office will take this event more seriously. The SR American suite were so dry, the pm AFD hasically was a "storm cancel" 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Last five runs of the GFS... 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Just W of DSM- went from .07-.10 QPF to ..27" QPF-GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: LAT = 41.60 LON = -93.88 00Z NOV10 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SUN 00Z 10-NOV 8.8 11.4 1013 80 65 567 557 SUN 06Z 10-NOV 5.7 9.4 1014 86 52 0.00 566 556 SUN 12Z 10-NOV 2.1 3.9 1018 84 54 0.00 565 550 SUN 18Z 10-NOV 4.4 0.5 1021 62 54 0.00 564 547 MON 00Z 11-NOV 1.5 -2.4 1023 70 82 0.00 561 542 MON 06Z 11-NOV -3.8 -7.1 1027 88 97 0.10 558 536 MON 12Z 11-NOV -7.0 -14.6 1033 91 95 0.16 552 527 MON 18Z 11-NOV -5.5 -16.8 1036 63 20 0.01 548 520 TUE 00Z 12-NOV -9.6 -18.1 1037 74 14 0.00 545 518 TUE 06Z 12-NOV 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Also keeps trending further west, which should be good for everybody.Bud, your looking good w this storm. Borderline w mix to snow. Minor accumulations, hopefully, more than that. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 wow- https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019111000&fh=54&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Bud, your looking good w this storm. Borderline w mix to snow. Minor accumulations, hopefully, more than that.I'll be thrilled with anything this time of year! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 I'll be thrilled with anything this time of year! Indeed...anything this time of the year is a bonus in the package. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 GFS/NAM bring the cold down quicker, and thus the heavier swath across SMI is the tier of border counties. Hoping that self-corrects to what the Euro/ICON have along 94. Otherwise, very pleased with our American 48 hour model. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Having a little snow cover north of me/us could aid in getting the cold air in here this time vs. Halloween Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 I think the -AO that we have good be the cause for this trend. The trend has been for stronger sand further west, both suggest that models underestimated the strength of the jet stream. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 00Z GFS keeps the wetter trend going here in C.IA--- borderline WWA. So you'd think it'd be even wetter east, yet it doesn't seem to be, lol (scratches head) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 GFS/NAM bring the cold down quicker, and thus the heavier swath across SMI is the tier of border counties. Hoping that self-corrects to what the Euro/ICON have along 94. Otherwise, very pleased with our American 48 hour model. I almost feel like the proverbial armchair quarterback Per a real Met's post at AmWx: I see no reason not to go full Euro/RGEM at this point given the American guidance performance. Pretty prolonged period of light to briefly moderate fgen snow Sunday night into Monday morning from IA to northern IL/southern WI and southern MI, followed by a nice ana-frontal snow shield that expands/intensifies from west to east Monday into Monday night as the 500mb vort and right-entrance quadrant of the upper level jet streak swing through. Soundings don't look perfect for high ratios but they will be more than 10:1 by late Sunday night and Monday as colder air pours in. Don't see why there won't be 2-4" of snow from parts of IA east, and probably more like 3-6" for northern IL and southern MI. The NAM is still trending towards a slightly sharper shortwave with higher heights ahead of it so it will likely move the northern edge north towards the Euro and RGEM in MI. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 I almost feel like the proverbial armchair quarterback Per a real Met's post at AmWx:Funny how the NAM was in a different world earlier today. It finally woke up! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Funny how the NAM was in a different world earlier today. It finally woke up! It is a Short Range model after all, so it's now more in it's comfort zone. I fault it much less than our pathetic GFS that seems totally clueless in the Mid-ranges (3-5 days out). As for that Met's post, if indeed the NAM is still correcting, it's possible it could get even a bit more amped over our way. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 CMC is also more robust.... 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 It is a Short Range model after all, so it's now more in it's comfort zone. I fault it much less than our pathetic GFS that seems totally clueless in the Mid-ranges (3-5 days out). As for that Met's post, if indeed the NAM is still correcting, it's possible it could get even a bit more amped over our way. If that is the case, this could turn out to be a major snowstorm for a lot of real estate w advisory type warning snows here in SMI. Btw: My forecast for Tuesday calls PM snow. I am thinking that Port Huron kicks in. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 CMC is also more robust.... Yep, per Kuchera it's now in lock-step with Euro https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2019111000&fh=60&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc= Edit-in lockstep for SMI I meant 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.