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Tom

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Recent UK runs have had little if anything in Iowa, but tonight's run is trending like the other models.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019111000_72_5660_220.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Yep, out to Wed morning, so includes the LES follow-on, but prolly just before the refresher clipper due in Wed evening.

 

20191110 0zUK h84 QPR totals.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Wowza, just noticed Traverse region. That's some serious qpf showing up there /\

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Yep, per Kuchera it's now in lock-step with Euro  :)

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2019111000&fh=60&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

 

Edit-in lockstep for SMI I meant

Looks awesome. :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Kuchera only giving me 1" more than 10:1 maps, so this shouldn't be mid-January fluff stuff. Will make me a happy camper as dense snow doesn't settle or melt nearly as quickly. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Recent UK runs have had little if anything in Iowa, but tonight's run is trending like the other models.

 

attachicon.gifus_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019111000_72_5660_220.png

 

Hoping you get in on this! 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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No comments on the latest Euro?  Odd.

 

Tonight's Euro has juiced the system up a little more.  Cedar Rapids is now up to almost 0.40".

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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In line with the latest models, DVN is going with 2-4".  This stuff won't be easy to measure because there will be wind this time.

 

And, of course, the snow here is going to be yet another overnight event.  Monday morning cleanup will be quite cold.

 

Here's the 00z Euro kuchera map.

 

Screen Shot 2019-11-10 at 4.48.43 AM.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I was at my cousins 40th B-Day party yesterday in Romeoville, IL which is about a good drive (40 miles) SW from where I live.  Thanks for everyone who was posting.  While I was there, I enjoyed reading all the commentary and the excitement is building for a legit snowstorm that has cold temps and wind with it.  Not to mention, the Lake will be "our" friend here in NE IL...finally!  Unlike last year's Blitz fail, this storm will make up for it as it will have arctic air to tap into.  

 

I'm only on a few hours of sleep and this storm coming together has really been fascinating to watch the models predict.  Kuddo's to the King Euro and Canadian for seeing this system well in advance of the other models.  Knowing the way past systems have been forming/energizing right in our region gave me confidence we would have a storm to deal with.  It's a validation now from the models that the LRC's Long Term Long Wave trough is certainly aiding in the development of this system.

 

 

00z RGEM...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

The Lehs/LES signal is showing up on ALL the models and I'm really fired up about this potential to dump snow for a period tomorrow morning around the rush hour.

 

prateptype.us_mw.png

 

 

prateptype.us_mw.png

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I was at my cousins 40th B-Day party yesterday in Romeoville, IL which is about a good drive (40 miles) SW from where I live. Thanks for everyone who was posting. While I was there, I enjoyed reading all the commentary and the excitement is building for a legit snowstorm that has cold temps and wind with it. Not to mention, the Lake will be "our" friend here in NE IL...finally! Unlike last year's Blitz fail, this storm will make up for it as it will have arctic air to tap into.

 

I'm only on a few hours of sleep and this storm coming together has really been fascinating to watch the models predict. Kuddo's to the King Euro and Canadian for seeing this system well in advance of the other models. Knowing the way past systems have been forming/energizing right in our region gave me confidence we would have a storm to deal with. It's a validation now from the models that the LRC's Long Term Long Wave trough is certainly aiding in the development of this system.

 

 

06z Canadian...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

The Lehs/LES signal is showing up on ALL the models and I'm really fired up about this potential to dump snow for a period tomorrow morning around the rush hour.

 

prateptype.us_mw.png

 

 

prateptype.us_mw.png

FYI the map you used for RGEM was 0z. 6z is even much better

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FYI the map you used for RGEM was 0z. 6z is even much better

Oh crap!  Thanks for the heads up Money...

 

I'll post the 06z RGEM maps here....

 

Pretty good 6 hour period of Lehs into NE IL...that lake plume could be fun if it transpires...

 

prateptype.us_mw.png

 

 

prateptype.us_mw.png

 

 

prateptype.us_mw.png

 

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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Models are trending wetter and further west with heavier qpf each run. I like what I’m seeing. And once again the Euro has the best idea with this storm for most of the time we’ve been tracking it. I think that’s a trend we’ll see all winter. Something just seems flat out wrong with the GFS past about 3 days out.

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PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2019

DISCUSSION...

A surface cold front will settle south through the region late today
into tonight as low pressure races east through Quebec and the east
edge of a large arctic high pressure system begins to build through
the northern/central Great Lakes. In advance of this front, expect
temperatures to climb into the 40s by this afternoon before much
colder air begins to collapse over the area by late afternoon/early
evening. Forcing in advance of this front, assisted by the initial
influence of jet tracking east into the region, will lead to a
chance of precipitation, particularly by this afternoon. Given
initial temperature profile across the area, this should be in the
form of drizzle/rain showers during the day.

However, a rather rapid transition to rain/snow and then all snow is
expected to occur later in the evening on through the overnight as
cold air deepens across the region. Coverage/intensity of this
activity should also ramp up overnight as the aforementioned jet
phases into mean polar low centered over/east of Hudson Bay. This
phasing still appears to result in a jet on the order of 150 knots
with a broad area of fgen forcing expanding across the area as this
feature evolves/expands into the Great Lakes/southern Ontario.

In general, models have trended to a stronger fgen solution in
roughly the H85-H7 layer with this jet with forcing continuing
through much of the day Monday. With plenty of cold air in place by
that time (high temperatures will stall in the upper 20s to lower
30s from north to south across the area), widespread snow
accumulations appear likely. This airmass appears cold enough to
compensate for the relatively early season time frame to allow for
accumulations on paved surfaces as well as grassy surfaces. Recent
cold nights have also allowed soil temperatures to cool notably and
this will likely play into this scenario as well. Given 00z cycle
model trends in regards to the strengthen of fgen and also a trend
to colder temperatures have increase snow accumulations across the
area with a solid 2 to 4 inches quite plausible. For most of the
area, this will occur from late Sunday night into Monday evening.

However, in addition to this widespread synoptic snowfall, hiRes
models depict a rather active lake effect event for the Thumb region
as this very cold airmass leads to extremely unstable low level
conditions over the relatively mild early winter lake waters. This
activity should begin to organize by late Sunday evening/early
Monday morning ,and with forecast soundings depicting a deepening
equilibrium level (nearing 15kft by Monday evening), expect rather
intense snowfall rates within the lake effect snow squalls/bands. A
Winter Storm Watch has been issued to highlight this potential from
Sunday night on through Monday night. Snowfall totals of a foot
appear likely in some locations as periodic snowfall rates of more
than an inch an hour impact the region during this time frame. Any
location where these heavy snow squalls become quasi-stationary for
a number of hours could very well end up with significantly more
than that as a substantial DGZ will exist within the saturated layer
up to the inversion.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This does not look to be our event. We are in the wrong location and then the wind will be out of the wrong direction. But the snow that falls anywhere will be all gone in less than a week,

W a low sun angle this time of the year, it will be hard to accomplish that. Also, temps do not warm up significantly here in mby. My (warm-up) is forecasted to be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Every map has a dry hole over Grand Rapids. Looking like SE of here will do well.

 

This does not look to be our event. We are in the wrong location and then the wind will be out of the wrong direction. But the snow that falls anywhere will be all gone in less than a week,

 

Have to just do a face palm with that office. Just quickly checked and surrounding offices all have snow amount maps within their "wx story" graphics. Nada in GRR's. Surrounding offices clear down to S Ohio have one. What a joke.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hi-Res RGEM is really portraying a nice outcome for SCMI. Gets mby to 7+ via Kuchera. This was 0z btw

 

20191110 0z HRDPS_Snowfall to h48.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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 Watches and Warnings for Southern Lower MI should be posted by today's pm package.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Hi-Res RGEM is really portraying a nice outcome for SCMI. Gets mby to 7+ via Kuchera. This was 0z btw

 

attachicon.gif20191110 0z HRDPS_Snowfall to h48.png

6"+ for our area amigo. I'll take it and run considering its still early Nov. :lol:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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6"+ for our area amigo. I'll take it and run considering its still early Nov. :lol:

 

Ikr, 6z HRDPS ups the amts further. Gets me to 7"/8" Kuchera. This is the way storms should always trend! IF ONLY

 

20191110 6z HRDPS_Snowfall to h48.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Ikr, 6z HRDPS ups the amts further. Gets me to 7"/8" Kuchera. This is the way storms should always trend! IF ONLY

 

attachicon.gif20191110 6z HRDPS_Snowfall to h48.png

:o  Bullseye!!! BAMMMMM!

 

Gotta like the Arctic air that will feed into this snowstorm. Think about it, its not even mid November . Too sweet for my taste. :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Basically need it to come a few miles north to get under a band. Maybe some influence off Huron back all this way lol

 

Yeah, look at that enhancement off of Saginaw Bay for the Tri-cities - dang!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Basically need it to come a few miles north to get under a band. Maybe some influence off Huron back all this way lol

:lol:

 

Thumb region already under a WSW.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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 Watches and Warnings for Southern Lower MI should be posted by today's pm package.

 

LOL, you know GRR ain't going there no matter how many model runs trend wetter/deeper..DTX perhaps, but I'm sure these coordination calls with GRR will tamper enthusiasm for getting proper treatment with this system. It's super early, first real snow for most, and will be a rather dramatic flip to wintry conditions from this weekend's pleasant wx. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Will say I'm not the biggest fan of the Monroe bullseye idea on the models. Good news is that is close enough to here to where it's within the margin of error for 24 hours out.

 

Not sure what you mean. Latest HRDPS seems to give you about the same as there

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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