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May 2023 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

More storms rolled in last night and missed my area to the north. I was missed in all 4 directions over 7 hours. That is quite an accomplishment😂. Not one drop. Areas within a few miles had 0.50-1.5”. Some places north of here had upwards of 4” in the last 2 nights. 

Same here missed in all directions with barely a sprinkle. 

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3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I watched the radar all night. I was 100% sure we would get hit. My family looked at the radar also and were just in shock how the storms refused to hit our area. We kid about the dome, but last night you’d swear something odd was happening. Have to hope for something next week, or our bad situation will get worse. 

It's interesting to see that this year, your on the sidelines watching every storm miss you, when last year, it was the opposite and you were actually getting hit and everyone else in E NE got missed.  Is that a fair statement?  I swear I saw many videos that you posted last summer showing monsoonal rain, in fact, I think the year prior in '21 the same happened, right?  I think it might have been 2020 bc as the summer went on it got wetter.  2021 was a good summer for E NE.

June-Aug 2022...

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I received a solid 0.68" of rain last night.  There was no lightning/thunder, just several hours of light rain with an occasional better shower.  The NWS isn't sure how the next two days will play out.  Some of the short-term models (hrrr, fv3, rrfs) are predicting good storms will blow up near Cedar Rapids tonight and then a huge MCS blows up Sunday night.  On one hand, we need the rain.  On the other, it's no fun planting the garden when it's muddy.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

It's interesting to see that this year, your on the sidelines watching every storm miss you, when last year, it was the opposite and you were actually getting hit and everyone else in E NE got missed.  Is that a fair statement?  I swear I saw many videos that you posted last summer showing monsoonal rain, in fact, I think the year prior in '21 the same happened, right?  I think it might have been 2020 bc as the summer went on it got wetter.  2021 was a good summer for E NE.

June-Aug 2022...

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Had one good month last summer. We were in such a deficit, that we could never catch up. Finished close to 10” below normal for 2022. Had some decent snow this winter, but have gone extremely dry again since March. Having the Ogallala Aquifer is our saving grace. 

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55 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I’m in another severe thunderstorm warning. Looking at the radar, it appears the storm may miss me again by a mile or two. Is there a miracle tonight?  We’ll see. 

We ended up with about 0.20” with a brief period of pea sized hail. Much more hail and rain reported north of town.  Thankful for at least getting something. 

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7 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I received a solid 0.68" of rain last night.  There was no lightning/thunder, just several hours of light rain with an occasional better shower.  The NWS isn't sure how the next two days will play out.  Some of the short-term models (hrrr, fv3, rrfs) are predicting good storms will blow up near Cedar Rapids tonight and then a huge MCS blows up Sunday night.  On one hand, we need the rain.  On the other, it's no fun planting the garden when it's muddy.

I planted most of the garden now, but I don't want the newly emerged and other plants battered by a bad storm either. Need about 2" of rain though, and many of the CAMS show up to around that amount somewhere in eastern Iowa. 

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30 minutes ago, Stormy said:

I planted most of the garden now, but I don't want the newly emerged and other plants battered by a bad storm either. Need about 2" of rain though and many of the CAMS show up to around that amount somewhere in eastern Iowa. 

I planted onions, potatoes  and lettuce on april 10th. Most  isnt even up!  Despite  me watering  daily past 5 days!  I know noone wants to hear this. But this blessed iowa dirt has cursed iowa weather! I know, i gardened in Maryland, Pennsylvania,  and the mountains  of Bolivia and in my youthful ignorance had way better gardens!! Give me the rocks this place can have this stupid weather!  Too many 10 to 25 day rain free periods! Genetically  modified Corn n beans are what grows here. And some very  hardy native plants like red cedars and rubarb! I used to be convinced that may was the only month that one can rely on precip  here 2017 it stopped  raining may 16th .End of rant

Screenshot_20230506_210347_RadarScope.jpg

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7 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I planted onions, potatoes  and lettuce on april 10th. Most  isnt even up!  Despite  me watering  daily past 5 days!  I know noone wants to hear this. But this blessed iowa dirt has cursed iowa weather! I know, i gardened in Maryland, Pennsylvania,  and the mountains  of Bolivia!!! Give me the rocks this place can have this stupid weather!  Too many 10 to 25 rain free periods! Corn n beans are what grows here. And some very  hardy native plants like red cedars and rubarb! End of rant

Screenshot_20230506_210347_RadarScope.jpg

I understand.  
Texas can hand out the craziest dxxx weather.  Flood, Fire, and Famine!   
I just give in and accept the water bill.  
 

We’re getting flood tonight.  Heavy thunderstorms across No Tx.  We need the rain so it’s good news.  
Thunderstorm warning just came across my iPhone.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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55 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I planted onions, potatoes  and lettuce on april 10th. Most  isnt even up!  Despite  me watering  daily past 5 days!  I know noone wants to hear this. But this blessed iowa dirt has cursed iowa weather! I know, i gardened in Maryland, Pennsylvania,  and the mountains  of Bolivia and in my youthful ignorance had way better gardens!! Give me the rocks this place can have this stupid weather!  Too many 10 to 25 day rain free periods! Corn n beans are what grows here. And some very  hardy native plants like red cedars and rubarb! End of rant

Screenshot_20230506_210347_RadarScope.jpg

I planted on April 12 which was to early even for hardier things. Normally don't plant garden till late April or May so I blame myself. It was just way to chilly for things to rapidly germinate. Once soiI temps are warmer things pop up much sooner. Even with rain later things probably wouldn't have done much better, as cold as it was with frosts. Another thing that was bad was soon after I planted we had a cold rain which is bad for seeds, or at least farmers don't want that happening! A warm rain would've been great. Your seeds may not come through if they haven't yet.🙁 I was even dumb enough to plant some beans, and much (not all) of it came up, surprisingly. 

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11 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Here is the brief storm this evening that dropped 0.20”. If you notice across the street, the neighbor’s trees are just starting to get a few leaves. Most trees in town are a couple of weeks behind schedule  

IMG_1163.MOV 79.92 MB · 0 downloads  

 

 

County yourself fortunate considering how isolated that cell was, and it appeared to have large hail somewhere. 

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Several sizable storms last night. Heavy rain. 
Currently 69 Humifity 90%
High of 87.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Yesterday the official H/L was 69/50. There was 0.03” of rain fall and just 6% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY was 56 and I recorded 0.17” of rain fall up to 7AM The current temperature is 57 here in my yard. For today the average H/L is now up to 67/45 the record high of 89 was set in 1965 and the record low of 25 was set in 1974. The record rain fall of 1.70” fell in 1932.

Currently the next two weeks look to be warmer than average. Then according to the CFSv2 turning to below to near average in weeks 3 and 4. Even with the rain in this weeks forecast the CFSv2 has the Great Lakes area on the dry side.

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Eastern Nebraska and Iowa peeps are under the gun today.  HRRR has been showing some very beneficial rains for southern and central Iowa.   Yesterdays record breaking heat produced a damaging tornado in northern MO last night.  Yesterday high temperature was 94 for mby breaking the old record of 89 set in 2004 and 1970.

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Love reading all your comments on the storm action all across the board.  Glad to see that many areas are seeing rain out of this pattern and one that is likely to continue to produce numerous more chances as we roll on through this month.  

The Heartland of the Nation is where the main action is going to be over the next few days and remainder of the week...IA bullseye??  Let's see if a legit MCS can fire up later tonight...DSM magnet?

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Storm reports from yesterday...

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Mother's Day weekend is looking interesting around these parts as a trough gets cutoff off over the Baja region and pulls Tropical moisture north into the 4 corners.  This is more or less a Monsoon set up.  Mother Nature giving us a clue???  Storms are to fire up over the mountain ranges and rush Southwest into the valley. This is very odd to see in the month of May which is typically our driest, or 2nd driest month out of the year.

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9 hours ago, Stormy said:

Just now I storm blew up right nearby and there's constant lightning.  It will pour pretty soon I think 

This storm was kind of lame as far as rainfall. It kinda of narrowly split over me with hail cores just north and south. Only 0.20" here with a few hail stones to at least 1/2" diameter. My brother 6 miles southeast got quite a bit of 1" hail. Heavy rain is possible tonight. 

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2 minutes ago, Stormy said:

This storm was kind of lame as far as rainfall. It kinda of narrowly split over me with hail cores just north and south. Only 0.20" here with a few hail stones to at least 1/2" diameter. My brother 6 miles southeast got quite a bit of 1" hail. Heavy rain is possible tonight. 

HRRR is yet again showing a bowing MCS rolling through IA...I think you guys will be getting some nighttime boomers!

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56 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Reed Timmer intercepted the wedge tornado near Linneus, Missouri.

 

When I saw the big hook on radar I figured that would have be producing a tornado, but I didn't check Twitter etc for more info! 

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Today starts out sunny but with clouds on the increase we could see some showers by late this evening. Warmer today with our first day over 70 degrees since back on April 22nd.
We slip back below normal temps for mid-week but then warm well into the 70's by next weekend.
Records for today: High 93 (1930) / Low 28 (1974) / Rain 2.74" (1908)
image.png.6e1d0c28237cb4e3453182243f5b1550.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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They’re saying I got .50” rain last night.  Certainly felt like more.  

Round2 more rain today   Some severe storm expected   Currently 78  High of 86  

 

 

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Was out doing some more yard work. The sun is now out and for the first time this year I can say it is warm and somewhat humid out. The current temperature here in MBY is 78 and I have a DP of 66

It’s pretty sticky.  I’m turning the AC on 

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Models today have been trending south with tonight's big MCS.  It would be nice to get an inch out of it.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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MDs for southern Iowa.

MD 710 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0710
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0210 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023

   Areas affected...far east-central Nebraska into central/southern
   Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 071910Z - 072115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail may accompany an intense cell tracking
   east across central Iowa over the next couple of hours. Additional,
   more widespread storms are expected later this afternoon/evening. A
   watch will likely be needed at some point later this afternoon, but
   timing remains uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...An isolated, severe thunderstorm has been tracking
   eastward along a surface boundary with the stronger instability
   gradient over central IA. Marginally severe hail has been reported
   with this storm recently over Carroll County. This cell may continue
   to periodically produce large hail and gusty winds as it shifts
   eastward along the surface boundary.

   Additional thunderstorm development is expected later this afternoon
   or early evening as a surface low over southeast NE lifts northeast
   toward the MO River over the next few hours. Various surface fronts
   and outflow boundaries exist across the area, providing potential
   points of focus for thunderstorm development. Strong heating and
   dewpoints in the low/mid 60s beneath steep midlevel lapse rates is
   resulting in moderate destabilization from east-central NE into
   southern IA. While some capping is still evident near the MO River
   into southwest IA as depicted by billow clouds on visible satellite,
   erosion of the cap is more evident further east toward southeast IA
   where deepening cumulus is noted. Additional heating and increasing
   ascent later today will support rapid thunderstorm development.
   However, timing remains a bit uncertain. Hi-res CAMs suggest later
   development closer to 00z, however observational trends suggest
   early convective initiation may be possible. 

   Backed low-level flow and increasing 850 mb southwesterly flow with
   time will support enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs. A
   few tornadoes, in addition to large hail and damaging gusts will be
   possible. A watch will lik
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Golfball hail is falling from the strong cells in Iowa.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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That storm was bizarre.  I got an hour of strong wind gusts, but only 0.02" of rain.  The part of the driveway protected by the house did not even get wet.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Well for the 3rd time in 48 hrs missed by 10 miles. Oh we got the dust!!!! Blew in from Marshalltown  probably. 

Screenshot_20230507_174904_The Weather Channel.jpg

You should do well tonight.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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26 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Another Severe Thunderstorm Watch, and another miss.  This time the complex will miss me to the south.  What looked promising an hour ago, wastes a great, unstable atmosphere around here. Hopefully Tuesday-Thursday pans out.  NWS hinting at ridging and getting hot and dry a week from now.

Getting missed to the south and east here too… there is nothing like watching dark storm clouds develop 20 miles to our south and knowing that we probably won’t get squat… again! 

Glad I watered my lawn earlier this evening… as I just knew we would get missed again (it’s too hard to break lousy weather patterns I guess).

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2 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Well for the 3rd time in 48 hrs missed by 10 miles. Oh we got the dust!!!! Blew in from Marshalltown  probably. 

Screenshot_20230507_174904_The Weather Channel.jpg

There’s A LOT of that going around !!

Edit:   I thought I’d add that North Texas is looking at a week in the 80’s. 
Monday/Tuesday will see a 50% chance of rain, while Wednesday rough next Sunday will 60% or great %.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Looks like there is some hope the storms make it down into my area.  There is a little sag to the south with the line of storms in SE Nebraska.  I may be doing a little wishcasting but both the 3km NAM and the HRRR bring a solid line of storms into my area.

May be an image of tornado, map and text

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I was afraid the earlier storms would push everything south tonight, but models are all showing the area lighting up and developing into a widespread soaker.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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