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May 2023 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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5 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Here's  my  precip numbers from 2023 so far.

Jan - 2.23

Feb - 3.07

Mar - 2.08

Apr - 2.46

May - .86 so far

Today I  planted 3 large trees.  Basically  18 inches down almost void of moisture.   The trend since 2012 looks to continue. Other than a handful  of very wet weeks and a wet day or two per month the growning season my area in general here has been dry dry dry! Some of our wettest periods since 2011 have been in sept or oct. But some winter months way way wetter than avg. Basically  it rains but rarely when we need it! I used to trust May for 4 inches or more but apparently  thats becoming  a thing of the past!  July  and Aug here have become shockingly dry, as well as some Septembers and June. Even Aprils have been so dry at times grass will barely  grow. Again all of this Im comparing to averages  for Ottumwa  Iowa I assume  over 60 years?  We started our business  here in 2008 and for the first 4 years lack of rain never entered  our minds!  I still cant believe  today that we were getting  mowers stuck back then in places  haven't  even barely  been wet for years now.  Most ponds  haven't  been full  for 18 months or longer now. About 3 yrs ago I saw a report on National Geographic  Channel  discussing Iowa flooding.  The report basically  said that growing  crops in Iowa is becoming  almost  impossible and insinuated that world food supplies  will be affected by all the flooding in constantly  in Iowa!  MUCH OF IOWA BEEN IN DROUGHT SINCE I SAW THAT!  In my area here  lack of july aug moisture  has reduced yields  somewhat.  But flooding? What is that? Map below is past 30 days rain.

Screenshot_20230514_145632_Gallery.jpg

The drier area is over mby but I am getting some decent rains right now.  .40 in the bucket with some more on the way.

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The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 65/48 there was no rain fall and 10% of possible sunshine. For the day there were 8 HDD’s and 0 CDD’s The official overnight low at GRR looks to be 40 here in MBY the low was 39. For today the average H/L is now up to 70/48. The record high of 91 was set in 1991 and the record low of 34 was set in 1920. This is the 1st this is the earliest day that has not yet reached 32 or lower. The rain fall record of 4.15” was set in 2001.

There was not any frost here in the Grand Rapids area but that was not the case just to the north of here. The low here in MBY was  39.  There will be a chance of frost to the north this week but not here in southern lower Michigan. While the highs yesterday were in the mid 60's there were a lot of clouds and with a cool north wind it felt rather cool. The next 5 days look to be rather typical mid to late May in the temperature department.

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Very odd weather around here.  Yesterday only made it to 58 degrees, one of the coolest gradation days I can remember.  We dropped in the upper 40's overnight, and are now dealing with a heavy mist/drizzle and fog with a temp of 50 degrees.  We're only supposed to make it to 54 degrees for a high today.  

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Happy Monday!  It’s a gorgeous morning out here in AZ…I can feel the moisture, albeit minimal, DP’s are in the mid 40’s right now and this will be the theme for the rest of the week.  
 

Here is a short vid of the rain shafts that are evaporating before reaching the ground…

 

 

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Exciting times as we are on our final testing schedules today and tomorrow, and kids are done with school this Wednesday morning, May 17th.  Our family is leaving on vacation this Thursday.  We are going to drive from here to Galveston, then take a 7 day cruise from May 20-27.  Excited to see the landscape and cities as we travel south.  My son and I love college football, so were are stopping at Stillwater (OSU), Norman (OU), Fort Worth (TCU), and Houston (UH) to check out their football stadiums.  We are staying in Norman OK on Thursday night and the north side of Houston on Friday night.  When he depart the ship on Saturday the 27th around 9 AM, we are going to drive straight back to Central Nebraska.  Trip is about 13.5 hours.  With my wife and I both teachers, we can then do things around home and recover from the trip.  My son with be a senior next fall, so workouts and camps start the day after Memorial Day.  My daughter just graduated from UNK in Kearney Nebraska, and will start her new job in the area after we return.

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PDO ring going to start showing up on the west coast very soon. 

If right on cue, going to reverse the warmth that tries to pop in the central CONUS in the later periods. 

Year without a summer here (and much needed) is looking like a lock. 

What will be exciting is to see if that eastern part crashes and leaves us with a central moderate or weak-mod east based Niño. 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1-12.png

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After a cold start yesterday was a very nice mid May day with a H/L of 73/38. There was no rain fall and 99% of possible sunshine. There were 9 HDDs and 0 CDDs The overnight low here in MBY for today was 40. For today the average H/L is 70/49 the record high of 89 was set in 1962 and 1977 the record low of 29 was set in 1997 the record rain fall of 1.97” fell in 1974.

The next 5 days look to be a few degrees either side of average. There is a chance of frost away from the metro areas and to the north. And later towards the end of the week a chance of showers. At the current time it is 41 here in MBY a good 5° colder there than at GRR.

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Our next 5-6 days are similar. Consistent spring weather.  
High 80’s Lows 60’s.  
Going to enjoy it while it’s here! 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Continues to look dry at least through the weekend. Some rain chances 🤞 by Saturday...our area farmers and lawns could really use some rain as we continue to run at around 75% of normal rain through today. Warmer today but then back to well below normal to close out the work week. In fact most areas should see temps drop into the 30's by Thursday morning. Some valley locations may even see some patchy frost.
Records for today: High 89 (1998) / Low 30 (1956) / Rain 2.44" (1989)
image.png.243afb2b039d6d326b8a4b2599cd7598.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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1 hour ago, Andie said:

Our next 5-6 days are similar. Consistent spring weather.  
High 80’s Lows 60’s.  
Going to enjoy it while it’s here! 

Congrats to the Dallas Stars last night!  My cousin went to the game and it was pretty darn electric!  Game 7's are always fun to watch.

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The target period through Memorial Day weekend has been on the calendar to produce another favorable round of precipitation over the Heartland and our fellow Farmers.   The modeling is suggesting the western ag belt region to be on the wetter side of things compared to the eastern ag belt.

0z EPS...

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image.png

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There was considerable smoke over the area yesterday and that looks to have kept the temperature down here in the Muskegon, Holland and Grand Rapids area. The official H/L was 75/43 there was no rain fall the sun was out about 43% of the time but the sky was more white than blue. There were 6 HDDs and 0 CDDs.

The current temperature and overnight low in MBY is 42 with hazy skies. The official low looks to have been 41. For today the average H/L is 70/49 the record high of 91 was set in 1962 and the record low of 30 was set in 1973 the record rain fall amount of 1.62” fell in 2020. The next 5 days look to be near average with highs in the 60’s and 70’s and lows 40’s to near 50.

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A cold front slid through the area overnight from the north and winds have turned to the north. Temps have continued to fall from our midnight high of 62.8 - we are currently at 52.7 here in East Nantmeal. Tonight will see many areas fall into the 30's for what should be the last time until October. Below normal temperatures should continue through Friday before rebounding to near normal on Saturday. Shower chances will increase on Saturday.
Records for today: High 91 (1951) / Low 30 (1895) / Rain 1.34" (2018)
image.png.191ffe374b0dc2e3da53c19d3ca3eea7.png
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Gorgeous day. High of 84 clear. 
Thurs high 88 with a front bringing us some Rain. 
Fri thru Mon 81/82 for a high. Partly cloudy and terrific late spring weather. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The "Monsoon" pattern continues today with storms firing up along the White Mtn's and up north...like yesterday, some of these storms will produce outflows that could spark a rogue storm or two in the east valley.  Might get lucky again and get some beneficial rains.  This morning when I stepped outside, you could smell the desert air from the rains yesterday.  You have to experience it to understand.  Oh ya, PHX hit a toasty temp of 105F and this is the highest temp of the season...not to mention, you can feel the humidity in the air but not the kind where you "wear".

 

Currently...

Screen Shot 2023-05-17 at 6.02.38 AM.png

 

 

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

The GFS and Euro agree that drought conditions will worsen over western Missouri the next 10 days almost no precipitation expected.

qpf_acc-imp.us_c.png

qpf_acc-imp.us_c.png

Beginning to let go of any hope for a pattern change around here. Also to make matters worse, we are falling behind on annual moisture pretty quickly now after a decent start (we are now at almost a 2 inch precipitation deficit year to date here in Omaha). The trends are not our friend right now for the summer months.

Hopefully you all down in Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri don’t start feeling our recent pain as well.

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On 5/14/2023 at 3:16 PM, OttumwaSnomow said:

Here's  my  precip numbers from 2023 so far.

Jan - 2.23

Feb - 3.07

Mar - 2.08

Apr - 2.46

May - .86 so far

Today I  planted 3 large trees.  Basically  18 inches down almost void of moisture.   The trend since 2012 looks to continue. Other than a handful  of very wet weeks and a wet day or two per month the growning season my area in general here has been dry dry dry! Some of our wettest periods since 2011 have been in sept or oct. But some winter months way way wetter than avg. Basically  it rains but rarely when we need it! I used to trust May for 4 inches or more but apparently  thats becoming  a thing of the past!  July  and Aug here have become shockingly dry, as well as some Septembers and June. Even Aprils have been so dry at times grass will barely  grow. Again all of this Im comparing to averages  for Ottumwa  Iowa I assume  over 60 years?  We started our business  here in 2008 and for the first 4 years lack of rain never entered  our minds!  I still cant believe  today that we were getting  mowers stuck back then in places  haven't  even barely  been wet for years now.  Most ponds  haven't  been full  for 18 months or longer now. About 3 yrs ago I saw a report on National Geographic  Channel  discussing Iowa flooding.  The report basically  said that growing  crops in Iowa is becoming  almost  impossible and insinuated that world food supplies  will be affected by all the flooding in constantly  in Iowa!  MUCH OF IOWA BEEN IN DROUGHT SINCE I SAW THAT!  In my area here  lack of july aug moisture  has reduced yields  somewhat.  But flooding? What is that? Map below is past 30 days rain.

Screenshot_20230514_145632_Gallery.jpg

Looks like you started in a very wet period of years. 2008 to 2010 were all very wet in my location, (as was 2007) which really isn't normal either. But 2011 was very dry in July and August. I've had a number of wet years since 2013, but it seems northeast Iowa is much wetter than average in the last decade or so! 

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After the front moves through tomorrow, rain chances appear low for at least another week around here. We are still below normal for the year for precipitation here. Hopefully we can get back to near or above normal precipitation around here so we don't go anymore below normal. It seems like there has always been a drought around here especially during the summer months for quite sometime around here. 

 

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Should get some rain with a few thunderstorms possible Thursday-Friday but otherwise mostly quiet for the next week. Still, totals could end up pretty solid for this storm.

Overall it's been a pathetic excuse for a severe weather season with no severe weather reports near me the entire spring. Absolute deadzone. We are moving out of peak severe season at this point so now I'm mostly just hoping we avoid hot weather for as long as possible. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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4 hours ago, Stormy said:

Looks like you started in a very wet period of years. 2008 to 2010 were all very wet in my location, (as was 2007) which really isn't normal either. But 2011 was very dry in July and August. I've had a number of wet years since 2013, but it seems northeast Iowa is much wetter than average in the last decade or so! 

I did some research.   Decorah  iowa only on drought  monitor  2 times in 20 yrs or something  like that.  Since  2012 Wapello  cty lives on drought monitor. I strongly  believe  southern  iowa has microclimates.  The data sites (locations) are inefficient.  Some other areas also frequently  in drought  like souix  city and even mason city. But it doesn't  take a detailed  data pool to see it. Dozens of times me and others have driven to iowa city, desmoines, or frequently  as close as Oskaloosa  to see green!!  A friend  in Burlington  has a similar  landscaping  business  and   over a 5 yr period asked me one day "HOW DO YOU MAKE A LIVING IN OTTUMWA?"  nearly every summer trip west to  Ottumwa   he find it burned up while Burlington  green. Imo there are strips and stripes across  Iowa with higher summer averages.  Creston to ames is one! If anyone  on here is close to Madrid?  How often severe  drought there? I have friends with gages mahaska  county  18 miles away over  past 11 yrs its obvious.  I believe  parts of iowa with flat  plateau  type areas to its sw or west gets more summer  cells.  Some years  like 2008 and 2010 its not very evident, but the drier yrs it is. Hilly areas like south wapello, north lucas county, SE monroe are notoriously  dry. I suspect  southside desmoines  is drier than north of metro. Again  only  talking summer. Its clear  that my area here can lead iowa in overall  rain year round  frequently.  Incidentally  this looks like my driest  may ever! .90 so far in May and May was to only real month I trusted here for precip!  Theres been a few steady precip summers like 2014, 2020. Maybe we just eek by  on popups and freak events with a 20 to 40% chance. If i wrote down ever flood watch, tornado  watch,  80 to 90% chance and Ottumwa  Iowa gets zero  in summer it will blow your mind! I am in a unique  situation.  I have hunting farms from lucas Iowa to Batavia iowa.  Several  counties, my own and wildlife  plots we do for others is nearing 100 in maybe 8 counties.. I know the drought  prone locations  which can be exasperated  by poor clay soil. 

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