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May 2023 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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There was a lot of smoke cover yesterday and the sky had a gray/white look to it. While there was a reported 92% of sunshine it was not like the sky was clear. The official H/L was 62/41 there was no rain fall. There were 13 Heating Degree Days and 0 Cooling Degree Days.

The overnight low in MBY so far is 41 (officially it was 39 at GRR) for today the average H/L is 71/49 the record high of 90 was set in 1962 and the record low of 28 was set in 1973. The record rain fall amount of 3.31” fell in 2000. The record snow fall amount of 0.2” fell in 1915 this is the latest date for measurable snowfall until fall. 0.4” fell in Lansing in 1915 for their latest snowfall of the spring.

While the lows are in the low 40’s here in the GR metro area that is not the case to the north.  Away from the lakes there are many areas in the mid to low 30’s at this time. And even 26 at Houghton Lake, 27 at Alpena and 28 at Pellston. 33 at Cadillac.

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Last couple days there's been a lot of wildfire smoke here in the Twin Cities area. Almost to the point it seemed cloudy. Made for a real nice sunset last night. Looks like some rain today and then a beautiful weekend in store!

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On 5/16/2023 at 3:48 PM, Madtown said:

Sounds silly after just melting 30"+ of snow less than 3 weeks ago, but we need rain! Everything is bone dry and water levels running a bit low. Last pile of snow still hanging on

I have experienced the same thing with heavy snow/late dry spring years.  Even with a muddy mess on the ground as its melting.  I guess the ground frost keeps the water from soaking in to the ground and it just runs off? Its seems like it ought to soak into the ground more, but nope. 

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DId not expect a mini heatwave next week is this year's pattern this spring.    But it's looking likely that temps will be well into the 80's and very dry for next week into Memorial Day weekend.  Awesome weather coming for Michigan and for those that can escape up north to the lake house for a few days!

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Some of the lower and coldest spots like Marsh Creek did briefly hit the freezing mark this morning.  Here in East Nantmeal we dropped to 35.9 degrees this is the 3rd coldest May 18th reading since 1894. Only colder were both 1983 and 1973 at 33 degrees. Well below normal temps will continue today before warming to near normal tomorrow. Rain chances increase on Saturday before clearing out on Sunday. Let's hope for some much needed rain as we are now exactly 5" below normal for the year.
Records for today: High 95 (1962) / Low 33 (1983/1973) / Rain 2.39" (1988)
image.png.7057fa94a440bbbe7eb7093716992614.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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I have finally learned why you get that desert smell in the air after it rains!  After all these years of coming here, a local met on TV mentioned it today in his weather segment.  The Sonoran Desert has a bush called the "Creosote" which gives off that wonderful aroma after it rains.  After last nights rains, this morning I could smell it quite nicely in the air.  This was the 2nd day in a row we got rain with a total of (.28")...last night we got 0.17" and the day before 0.11"....#BonusMonsoon

All the local mets are quite intrigued with this pattern over the coming days.  In fact, we are expecting another night of storms to roll into the valley today on the north side.  I think Friday will be the bigger day of the two. 

My brother and his wife's flew into town and left for their trip to Havusupai and may not have the best weather.  They waited 3 years for this trip that included an ill-timed COVID delay.  I'm praying that there won't be to much run off from the storms up north that will effect the gorgeous turquoise color of the water. 

 

The highest DP so far this season....

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I thought you knew that being an Az regular.  Wow. I’m married to a Tucson boy and he never stops talking about the wonderful desert smells.  He misses the mountains. (So do I, especially Mt. Lemon)

Highs today and Friday near 90. A front will then deliver some rain and temps  near 80 Sat/Sun.  
Awesome weekend ahead.  🙌

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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12 minutes ago, Andie said:

I thought you knew that being an Az regular.  Wow. I’m married to a Tucson boy and he never stops talking about the wonderful desert smells.  He misses the mountains. (So do I, especially Mt. Lemon)

Highs today and Friday near 90. A front will then deliver some rain and temps  near 80 Sat/Sun.  
Awesome weekend ahead.  🙌

Sadly, I never new it was a phenomena that only occurs in the Sonora Desert.  You learn something new everyday!

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19 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I did some research.   Decorah  iowa only on drought  monitor  2 times in 20 yrs or something  like that.  Since  2012 Wapello  cty lives on drought monitor. I strongly  believe  southern  iowa has microclimates.  The data sites (locations) are inefficient.  Some other areas also frequently  in drought  like souix  city and even mason city. But it doesn't  take a detailed  data pool to see it. Dozens of times me and others have driven to iowa city, desmoines, or frequently  as close as Oskaloosa  to see green!!  A friend  in Burlington  has a similar  landscaping  business  and   over a 5 yr period asked me one day "HOW DO YOU MAKE A LIVING IN OTTUMWA?"  nearly every summer trip west to  Ottumwa   he find it burned up while Burlington  green. Imo there are strips and stripes across  Iowa with higher summer averages.  Creston to ames is one! If anyone  on here is close to Madrid?  How often severe  drought there? I have friends with gages mahaska  county  18 miles away over  past 11 yrs its obvious.  I believe  parts of iowa with flat  plateau  type areas to its sw or west gets more summer  cells.  Some years  like 2008 and 2010 its not very evident, but the drier yrs it is. Hilly areas like south wapello, north lucas county, SE monroe are notoriously  dry. I suspect  southside desmoines  is drier than north of metro. Again  only  talking summer. Its clear  that my area here can lead iowa in overall  rain year round  frequently.  Incidentally  this looks like my driest  may ever! .90 so far in May and May was to only real month I trusted here for precip!  Theres been a few steady precip summers like 2014, 2020. Maybe we just eek by  on popups and freak events with a 20 to 40% chance. If i wrote down ever flood watch, tornado  watch,  80 to 90% chance and Ottumwa  Iowa gets zero  in summer it will blow your mind! I am in a unique  situation.  I have hunting farms from lucas Iowa to Batavia iowa.  Several  counties, my own and wildlife  plots we do for others is nearing 100 in maybe 8 counties.. I know the drought  prone locations  which can be exasperated  by poor clay soil. 

Do you remember or get in on this big rain/hail event? 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/features/cat.php?day=2020-05-18

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Sadly, I never new it was a phenomena that only occurs in the Sonora Desert.  You learn something new everyday!

The Sonoran desert has an amazing scent after a spring rain when trees and desert flowers are blooming.  
Wish they could bottle it!

 

EDIT:  Just saw a map from the NERC - National Electric Resource

You won't like it.  2/3 of the country at risk for major blackouts.  Everyone on this forum is on the map.  If you have a generator, great, otherwise you might look into a solar fan and some solar lamps. A large ice chest might be nice.

E54124D5-77A7-4B05-ACB3-4A2BDF1EE672.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Really hoping we can squeeze something out of the 20-30% rain chance tonight, as it’s looking bone dry around here for the next 7-10 days.

Unfortunately 2023 is looking like a solid repeat of 2022 weather-wise around here, which isn’t good unless you like heat and occasional dust storms.

UPDATE - Scratch the rain chances for this evening… replaced by Canadian wildfire smoke - yay!

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4 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

Really hoping we can squeeze something out of the 20-30% rain chance tonight, as it’s looking bone dry around here for the next 7-10 days.

Unfortunately 2023 is looking like a solid repeat of 2022 weather-wise around here, which isn’t good unless you like heat and occasional dust storms.

UPDATE - Scratch the rain chances for this evening… replaced by Canadian wildfire smoke - yay!

Things looking worse for Eastern Nebraska. Not good for you guys. 

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Glad to see it arrive.  How are rains in Tucson?

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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10 hours ago, Stormy said:

Do you remember or get in on this big rain/hail event? 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/features/cat.php?day=2020-05-18

I actually  had a screenshot of that event!  The heaviest  missed my place wsw of Ottumwa  back then. Heres the screenshot. The most memorable  one I witnessed here was Sept 17(?) 2017.  Ridiculous  training  along hwy 34 all nite LLJ didn't  die until 8 am. Ese edge of Ottumwa  8 inches! Coolest thing is it ended one of driest growing seasons ever (june n july so little  rain back to 1880s  records!). June 20 2015 i ended a wet period  with 6 inch nite!  Roads were closed beside  my house.  June 2021 probably  most memorable  wapello  county 1 day rain 12" one nite nw of eldon! Same area reported 17 inches june 2021.  But our rain comes in clumps!!! Like sept 2020 my house had 8 inches one week.  But we spend way way more time sticking our fingers hands or arms down into the cracks!! Just yesterday  helped my crew mow 21 lawns in 5 hrs. Dust from pollen, dust from dry ground and dying grass led me to hives! Ottumwa  Iowa can have these darn dry spells that seem to never  end each growing  season!!!!

Screenshot_20230518_172455_Gallery.jpg

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We’ll see some heavy storms, if not brief, as a front plows through late tomorrow afternoon.  40% chance of rain.   
Any storm that does develop could be capable of producing damaging winds (winds in excess of 60 mph) or hail.

Much cooler air will move in behind the front, so the weekend will be dry and pleasant with high temperatures mostly in the 70s.

 

30FCBCF7-D464-4AD7-9772-9C39AA55526F.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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After a wet winter and the drought conditions pretty much wiped out for KC, we are now back in some drought headlines and it appears things are not going to get wet anytime soon. Some parts of the city are sitting at around 2.5-3inches of rain since April 1st. Normal is closer to 6-7inhes. 

I hate droughts!!! Hopefully we can find a wet period before summer sets up shop.

 

Thanks..

 

Mike

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Once again yesterday had a lot of smoke and even with 58% of possible sunshine it looked cloudy almost all day. The official H/L was 69/38 there was no rain fall and the day had 0 Cooling Degree Days and 13 Heating Degree Days. The overnight low fell to 51 before rising to the current reading of 56.

For today the average H/L is 71/50 the record high of 91 was set in 1977 and the record low of 30 was set in 2002. The record rain fall amount of 2.85” fell in 1938. So far May is above average at Muskegon and Lansing. Just about average at Holland. It is below average at Grand Rapids, Flint, Detroit and Saginaw.

If you do not get any rain today you might not get any rain for the next 7 to 10 days. There looks to be a long dry spell and we will have to start watering the grass and gardens. As can be the case when it is dry it looks to also become very warm with highs in the 80’s but with low DP’s it will not feel too bad. Lows will be cooler with the dry air. Could we see a pattern like 1988?

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It is a bit muggy this morning here in the valley...it's wild to see the entire state with DP's in the 40's/50's when we are supposed to be in the 10's/20's...we have overcast skies this morning as the wave of energy from last night is still hanging on in the White Mtn's to my East.  


image.jpeg

 

We are expecting another round of pretty strong storms to develop over the mountains and head south into the Valley yet again later tonight.  This is the biggest threat of the week that this pattern has delivered.  I'm looking forward to seeing some strong storms later today.

 

Meantime, top notch late Spring weather back home in Chi...Memorial Day weekend looks superb!  You guys definitely earned it!

 

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Much clearer out this morning with some very welcomed low-level fresh air moving in overnight. Still looks a little smokey aloft but I'll happily take the improvement at the surface.

This weekend is looking flat out gorgeous with clear, sunny skies, light winds, and temps in the 70s to lows 80s. Perfect.

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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8 hours ago, Tom said:

I picked up about 1.5 here. Mesonet shows around 1.2 inches, i think. Not bad. This has been the perfect spring for me so far with exception to the late freezes.

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8 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Record low May rain seems in the offing!  While rest of Iowa says, Say what! Map of past 30 days. These kind of localized droughts are the worst. Like some one is picking  on you! Happens way too often here.

Screenshot_20230519_084207_Gallery.jpg

That's like me watching it snow in winter...EVERYWHERE else. Lol. Patchy or localized droughts are very weird and really unpredictable.

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Rain went SE of me.  Formed over me but I got stiffed !

Edit:   The front has moved on SSE and it’s hitting some warm Gulf moisture and firing up nicely. Would have been nice to get 1 good shower. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Getting pretty hard to hate the GFS trends with precip here in the south-central states. That's slowly squashing a future ridge there.

Other than a few warm spikes south and east of the OK/TX line, looking like the trend is cooler again for awhile on our end. 

It makes sense to not see your typical flood of warm air we would usually see invading due to the westward shifted changing PDO in spite of a major spike in the NAO. Talking about blocking in warmer months may be a bit strange, but reasons are years like 2009 (I think) which saw major warm-season dips in AO/NAO couplet sort of define the core of summer weather. 

Other factors at play as we close out May will be the development of typhoons over the west Pacific causing influence in the high latitudes as they recurve. There are a lot of sea surface temperature reasons for this that a more advanced meteorologist could explain better than I, but these are a lot of factors which, in my opinion, stack the deck against any major heat dominating anywhere in the heart of the nation for the summer. Maybe the very far northern plains into central Canada could close out summer above average along with the Northeast US. 

That's a lot of my thoughts on what is coming and why. 

I know some others may have a better handle on terminology than I do, so I apologize if I'm confusing. I welcome thoughts on it. I think it will be an interesting summer and possibly close to May.

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While there were showers in the area yesterday here in MBY I only had a few sprinkles. Officially at Grand Rapids 0.02” was reported. The official H/L yesterday was 68/50 and only 5% of possible sunshine was reported. The overnight low in MBY so far has been 46. For today the average H/L is 71/50 the record high of 92 was set in 1977 and the record low of 30 was set in 2002. The most rain fall of 3.39” fell in 1996.

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Here are the latest 10-day Euro and 16-day GFS for rainfall.  🤢 🤬

image.thumb.png.a2f153801527b65e9b2a93b38aea27bb.png

image.thumb.png.63f7dab5377d25217073be7427509003.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Near perfect weather this weekend and a bonfire with some friends looks likely tonight.  This mornings temps are a bit chilly with readings in the mid 40s this morning.

Tab2FileL.png

Low temperatures in the mid and upper 40s this morning.

Ahhh, the smell of burning wood and a glowing fire radiating warmth, along with some sticks with sausages and potato's in the coals!  Man, that's why I love the woods so much and spending time outdoors.  Enjoy!

Back home, a top notch week of weather extending through MDW...I'm sure business's and outdoor enthusiasts are thrilled.  Low DP's, sunny skies, light winds...how could you not???

image.png

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The bread basket of the nation looks to get some much need precip as we enter Memorial Day weekend and into June....need to spread some of this wealth farther east and my thoughts it will as we enter the 1st month of MET Summer.  I'm hopeful my LR call for a wet weekend during the holiday will materialize for most of you in NE that need the precip.  

image.gif

 

On a side note, as @OKwx2k4mentioned above, I have to concur and do not see any prolong Heat Waves for areas in the S Plains this summer.  I do see an extended hot period end of July for the GL's/MW due to a Tropical System that will effect parts of FL and SE coast that usually pumps up a Hot Dome.  More on that later on, in the meantime, enjoy this amazing weather!

Oh ya, the local media are calling this past week "MaySoon"...aka, an early taste to the Monsoon...it delivered some wild weather for parts of N AZ and into the NW valley.  Some severe storms fired up near the Prescott/Wickenburg area that literally were stationary and created Flash Flooding.  I saw some gorgeous towering cumulonimbus clouds in the distance yesterday afternoon and then by later in the early evening a nice outflow rushed down into my area dropping temps into the upper 70's/low 80's.  I went out by the fountain and soaked up all the beautiful storm clouds as the winds were gusty out of the NW....it was perfection!

 

 

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10 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Getting pretty hard to hate the GFS trends with precip here in the south-central states. That's slowly squashing a future ridge there.

Other than a few warm spikes south and east of the OK/TX line, looking like the trend is cooler again for awhile on our end. 

It makes sense to not see your typical flood of warm air we would usually see invading due to the westward shifted changing PDO in spite of a major spike in the NAO. Talking about blocking in warmer months may be a bit strange, but reasons are years like 2009 (I think) which saw major warm-season dips in AO/NAO couplet sort of define the core of summer weather. 

 

I recall 2009 well and the winter of 09/10. It was a cold winter and we got a good snow. So if the pattern is similar or repeating it will be a cold winter.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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